Rasmussen daily graph for 2/16/08 - Clinton up 3 (43), Obama down 1 (47)

[DavidDvorkin]

The race is tightening again. Resume shouting.

These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html

Gallup now has a daily tracking poll graph: http://www.gallup.com/poll/104107/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion

[skipos]

1. It is hard to believe she lead him by @18% 6 weeks ago

I thought he would never be able to overcome that.

[nomorewhopper]

11. hillary's lead was always about name recognition and inevitability

once people learned about the candidates, they changed their minds pretty quick

[DavidDvorkin]

13. True, I think

That's fairly common in primaries.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. .

[Herman74]

3. Seems to me that since Hillary's numbers really haven't gone down...

...that much (a little, but not much), what we are witnessing is Obama picking up most of the Edwards supporters, after Edwards withdrawal from the race.

[DavidDvorkin]

4. That could be it

Plus the psychological effect of his winning so many primaries/caucuses.

There might have been a huge one-day outlier driving Obama's rolling average up. If so, it will be gone by tomorrow.

Or, come to think of it, a big one-day outlier in the opposite direction. That will be gone in a couple of days.

[cloudythescribbler]

5. The Rasmussen poll w/Obama FOR ONE DAY leading HRC by 12 points was unreflected in ANY other ...

major poll. A result like that, which is then used here as the basis for arguing that there is a very recent major countertrend, is clearly an outlier.

Usually, when polls are in substantial agreement (eg HRC was leading Obama by double digits for months and months prior to Tsunami Tuesday, and Obama has since closed the gap and perhaps even gained a modest lead in the last few weeks) those results are accurate. To base one's reasoning about the campaign on a single "outlier" poll is not good reasoning.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Kick

For the thread that many intelligent DUers might otherwise not see.

[bigdarryl]

7. Rasmussen's everyday tracking polls are STUPID they don't reflect what the states are doing

[DavidDvorkin]

8. Gosh, I've never seen that objection posted before

[DavidDvorkin]

9. Kick for the meaningless national poll that everyone loves to follow

With only a few surly exceptions.

In addition to which, my graphs are really cool.

[Auntie Bush]

10. Maybe people are falling off the bandwagon and getting a dose of foresight and good sense.

[DavidDvorkin]

12. That would be Clinton's bandwagon

If you look at the whole graph.

[DavidDvorkin]

14. Consider this kick an outlier