This election thing ain't rocket science.

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

Look, candidates choose the political narrative that gives them the best chance of winning/what they no doubt believe in. So Clinton chose wrong--experience and inevitability. Edwards chose wrong--populism, smack the corporations in the mouth, have to strip those in power of power. Obama chose right. Right message, right messenger. Edwards probably could have pulled of the Obama message. But he rolled the dice with populism. He would have morphed into the Obama message come GE time. But he chose wrong.

And you know how the media loves its narratives. Sometimes they ignore the campaign narrative; sometimes they embrace and embellish it (for the latter see Saint McCain).

Clinton is done. There is nothing she can do at this point. She will only win if the convention becomes a bloody mess.

Obama wins not because he's the better candidate but because his message with him as the messenger just happened to be at the right time. It's a narrative many seem willing to embrace. If it's all a marketing ploy, so be it. I imagine they all are. But people are buying his.

In sum: candidates choose their narrative, adjust, and hope the people and the media buy it. This is perhaps the crux of the animosity here. People see the marketing campaign but somehow have forgotten that it's a marketing campaign. Then they buy into all the hype from whatever side and forget that it's all rather contrived. Or because some of us are hopelessly wonky, wee see HUGE differences in policies and get angered because it's all "message only" (a lot of the hostility towards Obama rests on this).

Hope, belief, experience, whatever--all nice marketing slogans. I think we have two candidates who are decent human beings and who would run things relatively similarly to one another but who will be different from repubs (o.k., foreign policy wonks have fun). We have a congress closely divided, so it will be a slow slog no matter who's in office.

Now, if you want to go with the whole "gut" thing, then you go with that. "I just feel I can trust candidate P more than Q." Fair enough. In the end, this may be the deciding factor--and may be the ultimate example of "this ain't rocket science."

O.K., dogs need a walk.

[ORDem]

1. So, it's all chance, eh? Then I guess we just need to do

eeny-meeny-miney-moe. I'm sorry for your level of cynicism. :dem:

[Omega3]

2. Obama has been given a complete and total free pass by the MSM, this can't be denied. Without that

he would be nowwhere near as popular. Yes, I do blame the media for most of this.

Don't believe me? Wait till the GE if he get the nomination, the knives will come out.

[ristruck]

3. Logical

There is some cynicism in your post but it is certainly logical. It is naive to think that there is not a high percentage of this that is in fact marketing as you say. This does help me sort out some of the angst that the HRC folks display. Perhaps the knowledge that HRC would and could do much of the same things in office drives them nuts to see how people have gone gaga over him.

In the end, perception is a form of reality. The perception is the he will bring the country together. That perception is the hope that I have. I may be naive but we do need to hope that we can achieve the results that they both would aspire to attain. He gives me more confidence that it can in fact get done. I believe he will win by a landslide in the GE. I think HRC could win but I have my doubts. It simply comes down to that for me.

[JimGinPA]

4. I Couldn't Have Said It Better...

:toast:

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

5. My point is that all of the candidates have the same sort of hope Obama has.

He just staked his campaign on it. His speeches focus on it.

My post really wasn't intended to be cynical. It's just a matter of fact that each campaign has a strategy and a concerted marketing campaign. This fact doesn't mean things aren't empty, nor does it mean that a given candidate isn't genuine about his or her message. It just means that some messages are better crafted and find traction at certain times. And some messengers are better.

Obama's message seems to be spot on, and he's a great messenger. It doesn't mean he doesn't believe in it, nor does it mean he's less equipped than Clinton.

[Omega3]

6. do you really believe he'll win in states like KS, ND, AK, ND, NE, SC , GA, AL, LA, and ID?

I really think he might be a paper tiger, he's won in caucus areas, he's won in many red states that will NOT go Dem in the GE, he's won in red states with open primaries where the Repuke contest is already over.

There has to be a reason the MSM has pushed and promoted him, either he's beholden to corp. interests and would be a good second choice after the repuke or they just waiting to rip him a new one in the GE. NOt sure.

We don't need the country together, we need a strong PROGRESSIVE DEM in the WH and he (nor Hillary) are it. After 7 years of extreme Bush rule we need to rule extreme just to bring this country back to the center, forget the left. His talk of bring the interests to the table and bi-partisianship are rediculous inmyopinion.

I'm glad at least so BHO supporter can admit to the biased media coverage. It's really quite sickening. Sheeple, most of us.

[Omega3]

7. nobody has a response to this

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

8. So you think a strong progressive dem. would pick up one of those states?

Which one? Edwards perhaps? And why do you think this? Is it really about a desire for progressive ideas in those states?

[ristruck]

9. Yes I do

Yes I actually believe that the conditions are all in place for a landslide victory.

1. People do want change
2. The Republicans have betrayed the trust of the country
3. He "connects" with people
4. White America is ready to prove that they are not racist. In fact many are excited to do so.
5. The Democratic message is better. Far better.
6. America wants out of Iraq.
7. McCain, like Dole, is a war hero that is old. Too moderate to excite the base and too republican for Democrats to vote for.

I have many more reasons.

I predict a 35 to 15 state victory. I think he will get some of the states you mention. The southern ones for sure.