How Can Obama Win the Electoral College?

[RLS21]

It looks like he could lose 8 of the 10 big states to Hillary.
So how will he do better against McCain when independents are again competitive?

That's the problem with most of these poular vote poles, they don't measure the electoral college which is what wins the election. Its actually ironic because I think Obama would win the popular vote against McCain but lose the electoral college. And if Hillary is the nominee the opposite could happen, she loses the popular vote and wins the electoral college.

If Obama is the nominee, Calif, Pa, and NY are put in play when they would be out of play with Hillary. Swartzenegger is likely to pull out all stops to deliver McCain California. He is the type of Republican that is appealing out there.

[tekisui]

1. CA, NY and PA will not go to McBush.

[cbayer]

2. The terminator is indeed popular.

Because he is actually quite moderate and his wife holds some significant sway.

But I promise you, California will not go for McCain.

[cbayer]

3. Welcome to DU. Unsolicited advice. Put up your profile. nt.

[Gore1FL]

4. Like this:

Likely no blue state from 2004 is a battleground state.

The following Red states "could" be: (especially if the African Amercan vote gets out in the SE, or the Latino vote gets out in the SW)

WV
VA
NC
SC
GA
FL
AL
MS
LA
AR
MO
NM
CO
NV

That is a fuck-load of electoral votes. It isn;t realistic to expect them all, but they are closer to reach than you'd expect. See also this article from DU in 2001:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/articles/01/08/27_map.html

Make Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius Obama's VP and you can put it in play too.

[saltpoint]

5. Dems beat McCain no matter our ticket. The stronger our ticket the more

we beat him to a pulp, and the longer the coattails, too.

I'd love to see Democrats at all levels of the ballot upend Republican candidates.

We have a big garage to clean and we need a lot of neighborhood help.

[ddeclue]

10. Nope not true... Hillary does not beat McCain - she can't win the South or midwest n/t

[bowens43]

6. This is the silliest pro-Hillary argument I've ever seen.

Is it your opinion that if Obama gets the nomination, those who supported Hillary will vote for McCain?
I think that you don't understand the primaries or what the electoral college is California is not going to go republican in 2008. That's just ridiculous.

[Debi]

7. It's about the third time it's been posted

"Obama can't win the big states and the states he won won't go for him in the General" blah blah blah blah blah blah. As if all the folks who supported him in the primaries/caucuses are just going to disappear and all the people who supported Clinton are going to vote republican :eyes:

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. McCain wins California???? Ha!Ha!Ha!

The republican party is going bankrupt here,

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2881686

You are just talking through your keyboard, you have no clue about California politics.

McCain would get slaughtered.

[ddeclue]

9. California will never go to McCain..

NY, CA, IL, MA, NJ, WI, MI, OR, WA, HI are guaranteed to go Dem.

TX, OK, KS, WY, ID, NE, UT are guaranteed to go Republican.

The biggest "battleground states" will continue to be FL, OH, and PA.


Hillary Clinton will draw Republicans out in droves to vote against her, she is the Democratic Newt Gingrich - a lightning rod for the opposition but not so much for her own party.

The Republicans don't agree with Obama politically but they don't hate him viscerally the way they hate Clinton.

Some will bring up racism against Obama as a factor against him but I will counter with the fact that Obama will draw African Americans out to vote at higher than normal rates and the fact that Obama clearly is drawing out young voters to vote for him in large numbers.

If Hillary is our nominee we can write off:

GA, AL, MS, AK, AR, MO, KY, TN, SC, NC, VA, IN, ND, SD, MT, CO, NV, TX, OK, KS, WY, ID, NE, UT, OH , LA, AZ

and she will win in

NY, CA, IL, MA, NJ, WI, MI, OR, WA, HI, CT, MD, DE, MN, NM

with

FL, ME, VT, NH, RI, IA, PA, WV in doubt

in any event it is the classic Republican landslide that happens when the Democrats lose the south and midwest.

I believe that Obama can carry:
GA, AL, AR, TN, SC, NC, VA, MD, NY, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, NJ, WI, MI, OR, WA, HI, CT, MD, DE, MN, KS, ME, VT, NH, RI, NM, LA, MO

I believe Obam will lose in:
TX, NV, AZ, ND, SD, IN, OK, WY, UT, WV, MS, KY, AK, ID, MT, NE

with OH and PA in doubt.

Translation, Obama will carry not all but the heart of the Deep South along with some midwest states that Hillary can't get + the usual Democratic dependable states = a respectable Obama win vs. a Hillary loss like John Kerry or Al Gore's. because they couldn't carry Southern states.

Obama's chances would be improved by picking John Edwards for Veep although I don't know if he would take that choice twice after 2004.
GA, AL, SC, NC, VA, TN, FL, MD, OH, PA, MO, NY, CA, IL, MA, NJ, WI, MI, OR, WA, HI, CT, MD, DE

[Eric J in MN]

11. John Kerry got WI by about 1 percent.

I hope we'll win WI again in 2008, but we can't take it for granted.