Political Outcome of a Hillary Nomination

[Obamaman2008]

I believe that this General Election is posied to result in an electoral victory for the Democrats if all things remain the same, regardless of if Hillary or Obama is chosen as the nominee.

But there are two different outcomes depending on who wins the Democratic Nomination for the Democratic Party in states around the country.

I think if Hillary gets the nomination Republicans and Independants around the country will vote in large numbers unseating many Democrats in Red States, and prevent open seats from being taken by Democrats because of their turnout.

On the other hand, I think if Obama is nominated, most conservatives will not bother to get off the couch to support McCain and Obama will carry other Democrats into office.

I also think that Obama brings in more money and NEW young people into the party ensuring it's future health and vitality for the coming generation.

So it is not who will win, it is what the party will look like after the general election?

There is also the reality that no Democrat will want to work with Hillary publically that lives in a Red State because she will not be popular in that state and the politicians will not want to be seen as voting with her or connected to her. We see this now with Republicans trying to avoid association with Bush. It is hard to win elections, raise money, and be effective when your constituents only give a 35% approval rating the leader of your party.

Here in Idaho, and the Northwest, Obama is favored by 3-1 over Hillary. I think in large part because Democratic leaders know the success and fundraising of the party would suffer if Hillary is the nominee, and the party will grow significantly if Obama is the nominee. People in Idaho, really do dislike Hillary, even many Democrats.

We can FORCE Hillary on the nation, because we can choose who we want. But there is a political reality that we must face if we do, not the least of which will be the loss of the US Senate ans House.

[mcctatas]

1. Brave man...

I hope the Hillary supporters aren't too hard on ya (be prepared for veiled accusations of trollery due to low post count and possibly general name calling and unpleasantness)

[saracat]

2. My observations living in a red state and as not only a party official but campaign manager for a

local state senate race is that you are completely wrong. My Republican friends and neighbors, we live in a 2 to 1 ration district,loathe John MCcain and are swearing to vote a complete Dem ticket "except" if it is Obama. Many who disliked Hillary initially view her favorably in contrast to Obama. That is the truth.Many Dems are threatening not to vote at all if it is Obama.This is the first time I have experienced this. I am scared of the effects of an Obama nomination on our down ticket.

[Obamaman2008]

3. Where you get your information?

Which states do you think would vote for McCain instead of Obama if Hillary is not the nominee?

All national polls show Obama leading McCain.

[DJ13]

4. Which states do you think would vote for McCain instead of Obama if Hillary is not the nominee?

The great state of denial.

[Obamaman2008]

5. I know that state, been then several time but it doesn't have a

city named Hope in it. :)

[saracat]

19. And the polls are so accurate aren't they?My info is from direct experience and on the ground.

I am talking about my own legislative district. And my own Congressional District. Many Dems are saying they will stay home and the Repukes will either stay home or vote for McCain.

[krkaufman]

20. But aren't your personal observations just an amateur poll...

... with even less reliability than the "professional" polls?

[Obamaman2008]

6. I never met a Republican that liked Hillary, and I live in Idaho

If you can point me to one, please do so. Even our famous Senator Larry Craig doesn't tolerate the Clintons.


Again, which state do you think McCain would get if Obama was the nominee instead of Hillary?

[mcctatas]

7. Well to be fair...

he might "tolerate" bill if he thought he could get away with it:evilgrin:

[angie_love]

11. I'm sorry but thats not true

Most people do not know Obama enough to really dislike him as much as Hillary. Some people have built up a deep distrust of the Clintons ever since lewinsky-gate. Obama is too new to incite such hatred and he hasn't really done anything controversial. Hillary has a very high unfavorable rating. Thats just the facts. I don't know what democrats you know that "hate" Obama but I'm willing to bet that there are far fewer that hate him than Hillary. I would also like to know what it is they hate about him? I know you are one of the ones that hate Obama, so I don't really believe you. I know so many dems/repubs that hate Hillary and are willing to vote Obama over McCain but also McCain over Hillary.

[NMMatt]

14. Yeah right... what state and what race? -nt

[Strelnikov_]

17. Thanks for the report from Outlier, USA n/t

[caligirl]

8. Look, if elected Hillary and the other team would first have to spend time

trying to find ground they can work on as a team, thats to say they and she have to bury the hatchet first. i think she has some old scores to settle first. I don't want to go along for that ride. Obama does not have to work on reconstructing his relationships with the other team. He';s ahead already, and day one isn't here yet. Scores big points with me if the first agenda item is health care and not settling old scores and burring the hatchet.

[southern_dem]

9. I have to agree

Most conservatives I know are going fishing on election day if it's Obama vs McCain. They won't lift a finger for McCain and don't even care enough to go vote for the down-ballot races. They are big Hillary haters though so if she gets the nod, they will vote just to go against her. Maybe it varies by area, I don't know.

[bowens43]

10. A HIllary nomination

will mean not only the loss of the presidency but also the Senate and possibly even the House.

A Clinton nomination will also mean more conservative Supreme court nominees. A Clinton nomination will devastating.

[TexasObserver]

12. Co-sign bowens' post. Every word looks correct to me. n/t

[Perry Logan]

13. It's "The Chickenshit Argument." As always, the OP has been nicely refuted several times.

[earthlover]

15. According to every poll listed in pollingreport.com Obama does better than Hillary against McCain

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

Every single poll.

[Yael]

16. We can ride his coattails or settle for the scorched earth 50.0001% plan

The choice is simple.

[tekisui]

18. Exactly. Coattails. New Majority.

Or 50% plus 1 and deadlock obstructionism.