New Poll in WI +13 Obama

[Hope And Change]

Obama, McCain primed for victories in Wisconsin


February 18, 2008

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin
to 13 points, according to Public Policy Polling’s latest survey in the state.

Obama leads 53-40, after holding a 50-39 advantage in a survey done earlier this week.

He received support from well over 60% of those polled under the age of 45, and leads
with both white and female voters in addition to his core constituencies of males and
African Americans.

“Our poll showed that with a standard turnout, Obama would lead Clinton just 47-44,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But we expect Wisconsin will
see the same record levels of turnout from young voters and black voters that Obama has
been bringing out in other states. That should propel him to a double digit victory.”

more...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Wisconsin_Release_021808.pdf

[tekisui]

1. Wow. That is not including the bump he'll get from Hillary's latest spew.

[Egnever]

2. I hope it holds or increases.

I don't want Hillary to have any talking points, aside from WI doesn't matter, going into the next two weeks while we wait for her firewall.

[catgirl]

3. I'm sure she's pushed some Super Delegates away too

yuck.

[K Gardner]

12. She lost another one today.. forget the lady's name, but she switched to Obama.

[Barack_America]

16. Really? Hmm. I'm going to have to check this out!

:hi:

[K Gardner]

17. She was on MSNBC right before the Tubbs drama. That's all I remember, sorry !

[thevoiceofreason]

4. Kick for good kharma

[IndianaGreen]

5. I think WI is going to be close

and I hope Obama can close the gap in Texas and Ohio.

[Yurem2008]

8. WI will be close

but I think that Obama will win it by 5 to 7 points...

[Barack_America]

6. That's too bad. Wisconsin was *this* close to being a state that matters.

They could have been the Kings of the Midwest. Instead, they'll have to suffer the same fate as Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, etc.

[berni_mccoy]

10. LOL!

[Vinca]

14. No cheese for you.

:rofl:

[BringBigDogBack]

7. Keep working...

looks promising. :)

[tandem5]

9. the text of this poll is just another reminder of how much guessing goes into a likely voter poll...

I'm always hearing the MoE quoted, but that only covers the sampling not the weighting and as they point out: "'Our poll showed that with a standard turnout, Obama would lead Clinton just 47-44'" but they created the larger margin for Obama simply by weighting the sample differently based on nothing more than an educated guess.

Now I'm guessing, but I imagine the other polls that show numbers similar to this 47-44 number are based on "standard turnout" in which case regardless of who turns out, not much has changed since a couple of days ago.

[Levgreee]

11. Obama hasn't underperformed in any state since before South Carolina

He has either met expectations or exceeded them. There is good reason for optimism, they are running a great, professional campaign.

[HeraldSquare212]

13. So, he's up in WI, tied in TX- what's the latest Ohio?

[ginnyinWI]

15. also Hawaii--any polling done there?

Not that I'm worried!

[grantcart]

18. k and r

[loveangelc]

19. I can't believe this poll, sadly. It seems theyre just assuming a bunch of things.

like theyre assuming a lot of independents will vote and assuming there will be record turnout among young poeple...