First Hawaii Poll CD #1 Obama 58%- Clinton 26%, CD #2 Obama 55% - Clinton 23%

[Dems Will Win]

Barack Surfing His Wave in Hawaii

First Congressional District
First Response: 2/18/08 9:02 am HST
Last Response: 2/18/08 1:34 pm HST
Number of Responses: 151.
Margin of Error: ±7.9%

Barack Obama (88) 58.3% (±7.9%)
Hillary Clinton (39) 25.8% (±7.0%)
Undecided (24) 15.9% (±5.8%)

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Second Congressional District
First Response: 2/18/08 8:58 am HST
Last Response: 2/18/08 1:34 pm HST
Number of Responses: 192.
Margin of Error: ±7.0%

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Barack Obama (105) 54.7% (±7.0%)
Hillary Clinton (45) 23.4% (±6.0%)
Undecided (43) 21.9% (±5.8%)

http://www.touchtonepoll.com/

If this holds up, Barack will win the delegates 2 to 1.

[MadBadger]

1. What is this?

[Dems Will Win]

4. It looks like Hillary is surging in the Second CD from 16% to 23%

Obama must be shaking in his boots.

earlier parts of the poll:

Wednesday, February 13, 2008
First Congressional District
First Response: 2/13/08 8:30 am HST
Last Response: 2/13/08 5:53 pm HST
Number of Responses: 227.
Margin of Error: ±6.5%

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Barack Obama (122) 53.7% (±6.5%)
Hillary Clinton (67) 29.5% (±5.9%)
Undecided (38) 16.7% (±4.9%)

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Second Congressional District
First Response: 2/13/08 8:30 am HST
Last Response: 2/13/08 5:57 pm HST
Number of Responses: 209.
Margin of Error: ±6.4%

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Barack Obama (137) 65.6% (±6.4%)
Undecided (38) 18.2% (±5.2%)
Hillary Clinton (34) 16.3% (±5.0%)

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This one was the whole state:


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Friday, February 1, 2008
First Response: 2/1/08 9:04 am HST
Last Response: 2/1/08 6:29 pm HST
Number of Responses: 560. Margin of Error: ±4.1%

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Barack Obama (274) 48.9% (±4.1%)
Undecided (152) 27.1% (±3.7%)
Hillary Clinton (134) 23.9% (±3.5%)

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[Renew Deal]

2. That's a lot of undecided for the day before the election.

And it makes me thing the most passionate people will show up. That means Obama should do well.

[Flabbergasted]

3. I think the undecided will break for Obama.

[rinsd]

5. Small sample plus large MOE equals useless poll.

[Dems Will Win]

10. I do polling and this is a typical local polling sample

Obama will beat her 2 to 1 if this is true.

[rinsd]

16. Most state polling have had 400 to 600 in their samples and MOE's 5 or less.

This one is over 6.

I looked over the site, they have 4 polls total all taken this year(2 for HI, one for CA & one for NV).

[Drunken Irishman]

15. It's congressional districts, which explains the small sample size.

[rinsd]

19. Even added together encompassing the state, its still kind of small.

And that MOE is horrendous.

That said I would be surprised if Obama lost his other "home" state.

As shocked as I would be if Hillary had lost AK.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. The MOE is suspect, but most state polls have a sample size of 400ish.

At least smaller states like Utah and Hawaii.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. Yeah, but Hawaii, a small island off of the the coast of America...

Doesn't count.

[cbayer]

9. Didn't you get the memo? Hawaii is part of America now. nt.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

13. That's impossible, Hawaii can't be part of America.

Because Obama is a furriner.

[cbayer]

12. And it's actually a collection of 19 islands. nt.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

14. Like I said...

Hawaii doesn't count!

[Cha]

22. The Hawaiian Islands are the

furthest Islands from any land mass on the Planet, IOW.. Out In The Middle Of Nowhere! B-)

[cbayer]

7. The number of people surveyed in these polls is way too low to be significant. nt.

[rocktivity]

8. Get thee behind me, polls!

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[Debi]

11. Well, I guess Hawaii doesn't count

x(

[Yael]

17. 23%? They will be lucky if she doesn't contest their statehood.

[Adelante]

21. Haha

:D

[Cha]

18. Ah, an Ocean view to go

along with the polls from Hawai'i..how considerate! B-)

[City Lights]

20. Another soon-to-be irrelevant state.

Poor Hawaii! :cry:

[Renew Deal]

23. Prepare the kool aid!

Or Mai Tai's or whatever.

[Cha]

26. Coconut

Coolaid for everyone! B-)

[MadBadger]

24. Obama Internals as of last week have this as him ahead 52-47.

It will be close.

[Dems Will Win]

27. Oh really? How's about WI internals?

[MadBadger]

29. 53-46 Obama

[my3boyz]

30. And Texas? LOL

[my3boyz]

28. How do you know what his internals showed?

[MadBadger]

31. Heres the Link, Also from Ben Smith on Politico, its reported his internals show him down 7 in Ohio.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/report_obamas_internal_polling.php

[Dems Will Win]

33. Thanks

[Renew Deal]

32. That might be from the "leaked" spreadsheet.

That's where I think that's coming from.

[MadBadger]

36. It was leaked last week I believe

I dont think its from the spreadsheet, but those numbers may be conservative just like those numbers on the sheet were.

[rove karl rove]

34. ya, and 2:1 is probably an under-estimate of his margin of victory

there in Hawaii...this is no surprise, but I still wonder what he's looking at in that pic you posted.

[AtomicKitten]

35. Native son makes good!!!

thanks for posting!!

K&R

[David Zephyr]

37. News worth kicking up to the top.

:kick:

[Dems Will Win]

38. kick

[Dems Will Win]

39. kick

[MadBadger]

40. What time do the Hawaii Polls Close (ET)?