Rasmussen Florida: McCain leads Obama by SIXTEEN percentage points.

[Karmadillo]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/florida_2008_presidential_election

Monday, February 18, 2008

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a six-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton and an even larger lead—sixteen percentage points—over Barack Obama. It’s McCain 49% Clinton 43% and McCain 53% Obama 37%. This dynamic is the opposite of what we have found in most other states where Obama typically outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups.

The Florida results for a Clinton-McCain match-up are fairly similar to other battleground states--the race is competitive, Clinton does better among women than men, and McCain leads among unaffiliated voters.

However, the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida’s convention delegates may be hurting Obama. Most notably, just 55% of Sunshine State Democrats say they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would vote for McCain. These results are especially striking given that Obama leads McCain among unaffiliated voters in the state.

Florida was stripped of its seats at the Democratic National Convention as a penalty for holding its Primary before February 5. The candidates did not campaign in the state and Hillary Clinton handily won the popular vote. Now, Clinton is calling for the Florida delegates to be seated while Obama disagrees.

more...

[Thrill]

1. I said earlier.....Florida is a lost cause

Repuke Government, just elected another wacko Repuke Senator. They are off the deep end down there. And the DNC delegates issue is also going to hurt whoever the Dem nominee is.

[PretzelWarrior]

2. NICE TRY!! reality check. here's link to all the other results so far

which show in most states it is Obama that fares better against McCain--not Clinton.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_presidential_race_state_by_state_snapshot

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Sounds like a done deal.

:sarcasm:

[Jacobin]

4. Fine. Fork Florida. I'm tired of pandering to Florida for votes anyway

[thunder rising]

5. Barack has not yet "occurred" in FL. It's the same story, impending butt kicking by opponent. Then

Barack arrives and the crowds are too large for stadiums and suddenly Florida doesn't count anymore.

[high density]

6. Umm, it's February, not November

:eyes:

[MadBadger]

7. Tell me, whats its like in WI, CO, NH, NV, NM, PA, MN, WA, OR?

[BeyondGeography]

8. Obama's next campaign event in Florida will be his first

And Hillary will be the first to tell you 16-point leads aren't enough.

[FrenchieCat]

9. Well, McCain has campaigned up and down in that state.....

Obama, not even.

So touting a poll like that is pretty propagandish of you.

[demo dutch]

34. No people are just pissed!

[Bicoastal]

10. Well, if there is trouble in the air, it must be coming from the Sunshine State.

It's as if Florida said, HEY, we haven't been a pain in the ass for Democrats lately, what should we do to get things back to normal?

I KNOW--let's piss off Howard Dean and the National Party until we get our delegates taken away, then get real PISSY about it! :grr:

[ruggerson]

11. I think Obama could lose California too

[Bicoastal]

12. Why?

Because he lost the state to Hillary? WTF!

[ruggerson]

18. Because many Latinos like McCain

they like that he stood up for them with his bill.

[Ichingcarpenter]

19. My friend is the Hispanic Latino Chairperson for the Democratic party of Cal

You are talking through your hat.

[ruggerson]

21. Really? And how did that Phil Angelides thing work out for you?

[Ichingcarpenter]

24. Don't change the subject

You don't have a clue about what this state will do
after the nominee is chosen..

You said McCain would take California and there is no way that would happen.

[ruggerson]

25. How's that changing the subject

it shows how a perceived Hispanic-friendly Republican can do statewide.

[Alexander]

26. Arnold's a celebrity and is more liberal than McCain.

Plus, Phil Angelides had no personality and was a terrible campaigner.

Exactly the opposite of what we're seeing with Obama.

Nice try, though. I realize you're pretty desperate at this point.

[ruggerson]

30. You say that in every post

you should really mix things up a bit.

(and since I'd be rooting for, and voting for, Obama over McCain, your post doesn't make much sense. Other than being flamebait.)

[Ichingcarpenter]

28. CA's Lesson For Dems On How To Lose The Mid-Term

CA's Lesson For Dems On How To Lose The Mid-Term

I just took a 50 to 1 bet that Arnold Schwarzenegger would not be re-elected in November. My one dollar for his fifty. The odds were too good and I know anything can happen in politics in two months. Even if, like most Democrats, I don't really believe Democratic challenger Phil Angelides has a good chance of beating Schwarzenegger.


A few months ago Schwarzenegger was eminently beatable after having called a special election to mock nurses, firefighters, teachers and other working people as "special interests" and seeing his approval rating plunge to 40%. Arnold apologized and, like a battered spouse, the public seems to have accepted. Why? Herein lies the cautiounary tale for Democrats nationwide on how to lose a winnable election.

1. Democratic legislative leaders gave Arnold exactly what he wanted, a face-lift that let him distance himself from the last flop. Schwarzenegger's doing a victory dance around America over a purported fix to global warming, the world's biggest problem, that unfortunately lets Schwarzenegger's administration derail the new law after election day if it chooses to. That's because the real power to implement or divest from global emissions targets rests with a state Air Resources Board Schwarzenegger controls. And would a second term governor who has raked in over $100 million from big business interests give a second thought to declaring the emissions targets a threat to the economy? Schwarzenegger's lied to Californians time after time, but somehow Democratic leaders and the environmental lobby trust him. The enviros should know the sad story of government is the making of regulations can postpone laws for decades unless a public official really wants change to happen. Wouldn't it have been better to elect a governor they trust, then cut the deal?

2. Self-interested leaders and groups promoted themselves at the expense of taking power. It wasn't just the environmental community looking to claim victory after nuzzling up in Schwarzenegger's smoking tent. (Take a look at NRDC's Ralph Cavanagh on the Schwarzenegger re-election team long before the emissions deal.) Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (co-chair of the Angelides campaign in name only) is a mentee of super-star LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who would like to run for Governor in four years if Angelides loses now. Nunez is rumored to want to be LA Mayor if Antonio runs. Nunez authored the emissions legisltion and also pushed through a prescription drug discount plan that once again gives all the power to Schwarzenegger (after election day) to crack down or not crack down on drug companies that have given his committees more than a million bucks. And Nunez has been praising Arnold so widely in the media that Mrs. Nunez must be wondering what the two are up to after hours in Sacramento. Villaraigosa didn't endorse Angelides until after he and Schwarzenegger waltzed around the state claiming victory on the break up of the Los Angeles Unified School District. In fact Villaraigosa just endorsed challenger Angelides this week after Democratic donors had concluded Angelides couldn't be saved. It felt just like when Antonio showed up to save Gray Davis during the recall, a eulogy instead of an endorsement. The California Democratic party disunity is infused with all the vanity, hubris and guile of a Shakesperean tragedy. Phil must be asking daily "Et Tu Brutus?"

3. The Democratic challenger shot himself in the foot by distancing himself from his base. The one thing that the Democratic legislative leaders did right was to put landmark universal health care legislation on Schwarzenegger's desk. It was dubbed veto bait by the press, but it made the point of the differences between the parties. Democrats believe in guaranteeing access to health care for all patients and rebuilding the crumbling pillars of the health care system left behind by GOP indifference. Republicans like Schwarzenegger wanted health care for all who could pay for it. Gubernatorial challenger Phil Angelides then blew it by declaring he too was opposed to the universal health care measure put forth by State Senator Shiela Kuehl. Cold feet? Caught the stupid flu? We still don't know. Guess he was just scared of big changes. But I knew when I read the news in the San Francisco Chronicle last week that Angelides was pretty much dust. His only hope was to be a populist, to stand for real change, to take risks Schwarzenegger wouldn't.

Why did I take that bet? I love long shots. I have to. I am a registered Democrat.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jamie-court/cas-lesson-for-dems-on-h_b_28885.html

[demo dutch]

36. A lot of them also like Hillary

[babylonsister]

43. Many Latinos also have family in the military; that could sway them. nt

[BeyondGeography]

14. Okey dokey

[burythehatchet]

22. I thought of about 30 things to reply to that and then thought better of each one n/t

[NJSecularist]

15. Now that's just wishful thinking on your part.

[Ichingcarpenter]

17. You have no clue on California

Either candidate the democrats have would slaughter McCain

I know this state and our party and what the opposition can do which is nada.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

13. Hillary trails McPain in: PA, WI, MN, OR, CO, NV, tied in WA

In all those states Obama is leading McCain by substantial margins.

For Hillary supporters GE polls are meaningless and worthless - except for the odd one which favors Clinton, of course (and even in the odd one, Clinton ALSO trails McPain).

[UALRBSofL]

16. And McCain will take florida anyway

We have a popular governor Christ. Mel Martinez is well liked in south florida, florida is pro military, and then the DNC/FDP fight over counting votes. But it doesn't matter, you don't need florida to win.

[ngant17]

31. This Florida cracker is voting Obama the first chance he gets

and makes no difference to me how many Repugs have moved down here and set up camp en masse over the last 10 years.

[demo dutch]

33. You''ll be in the minority as far as I can tell from my area

[UALRBSofL]

40. demo dutch I'm a minority. Probably the only democrat in my city

:( Joke, but there isn't many of us.

[demo dutch]

41. Heh I live in Dem heaven in SE FL, but I can't see Barack getting anywhere here either

[ngant17]

44. I don't doubt the numbers

Florida has a 65% white population, Hispanic and African American populations are about 17% and 15% respectively. I can see Obama getting maybe 1/3 of whoever he's up against down here. I hope Fla. won't be as decisive a state as in 2000 and 2004.

[thereismore]

20. It's the geriatric vote. Fine by me. nt

[demo dutch]

37. Also a really large hispanic (not only Cuban) and Jewish vote. In fact the Repug hispanic trend has

changed quite a bit over the last few years and has become more Dem territory.

[burythehatchet]

23. You're really throwin up some bricks today, aren't you? n/t

[Alexander]

27. This is an outlier, folks. The other Rasmussen polls show the opposite.

Besides, with Obama's lead in western states like Colorado and Nevada, we could offset Florida easily.

[MadBadger]

29. Its probably not an outlier. I dont think you can read things like that

I dont think he can win Florida this year

[demo dutch]

32. Dems will lose FL guaranteed! Especially in light of the primary disaster

[LisaL]

35. I doubt he could win Florida.

I doubt he could win OH either.

[demo dutch]

39. He Who McCain or Obama?

[still_one]

38. Frankly Florida is getting what they asked for. They elected jeb

multiple times, they had their repuke legislature, and of course harris

I am not trying to be unsympathetic, and in some respects the whole country has gotten what they deserve the past eight years

Do you think we have learned anything?

[Zorra]

42. Paging Al Gore. n/t

[denem]

45. Florida is a write off

It's been marginal Red for as long as Castro. This year, after the FL Dems vs the DNC, it's finished, whoever wins the nom. Kerry would have won with Ohio. Florida is as dead as the sand on the keys.