Gallup Daily Tracking + Wisc: Obama spread widening

[grantcart]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104407/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx






http://www.pollster.com/08-WI-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Wisconsin Spread (For obvious reasons ARG omitted)
. . . Obama Ahead
PPP 2/17 . +13

Res 2/13 . +5

Ras 2/13 . +5

PPP 2/11 . . +11

Str 2/10 . . + 4

[Thrill]

1. I think Murkin and Herman already jumped off the tallest building

in their towns

[my3boyz]

2. I would not know. I put them on ignore some time ago and I'm so happy that I did!

[Alexander]

4. Murkin's been banned already.

I suspect Herman will disappear for one reason or another before too long.

[Yael]

10. Would now be a good time to go out to go daddy and buy

hillaryisnot44.com?

hillarydenied44.com?

[grantcart]

he can be a busy bee

[NJSecularist]

3. Why was the ARG poll omitted?

Regardless of their sketchy track record, they have been right a few times. You can't discount them because you don't like their poll results.

[MadBadger]

5. RCP threw em out the door as well.

[Alexander]

6. They've been wrong on almost every race so far this year.

One DUer referred to ARG as "Anyone's Random Guess" which explains my feelings about them.

Even factored in, they probably wouldn't change the trend results much.

[NJSecularist]

8. True

I realize they have been wrong most of the time. I think they suck as a polling service.

I just don't think its out of the realm of possibility that Hillary wins. Which is why I can't totally discount ARG's poll results, as much as they have sucked historically.

[grantcart]

11. yes I agree it is possible but the reason I posted them is so that

the really rabid Clintonistas might get a touch of realilty of how far from reality they have gone and hopefully return to a more intelligent discourse

[grantcart]

7. no because I don't like their methodology

Their polls show Obama way ahead in Texas and I don't believe that either. Their method is to use computer calling with a push button response .."If you support Clinton push # 1. Their record is terrible.

[NJSecularist]

9. Doesn't SurveyUSA use the same method?

As does Public Policy Polling (PPP)?

[SoxFan]

12. It's a long story

ARG is located in New Hampshire. For years, the firm has had a reputation as a sketchy, pay-for-play operation. A lot of us doubt whether ARG makes any calls at all. The pollster, Dick Bennett, doesn't seem to have a call center/boiler room, and he is very secretive about just about all aspects of the firm. I think that others are starting to wise up to ARG at long last.

[grantcart]

13. I hate to say it but even Dick Morris doesn't think that they have feet worth licking

[SoxFan]

16. I'll file that away for a future nightmare

[grantcart]

17. well I did say I hated to say it lol

[JustinL]

24. ARG isn't omitted from the pollster.com graph

Look at the cluster of data points on the right-hand side of the graph. Of the top 4, two are blue. Those are from the two ARG polls conducted in 2008, both of which showed Clinton ahead of Obama. The rest of the polls conducted in 2008 all showed Obama ahead of Clinton.

Edited subject line to clarify.

[Scurrilous]

14. Wow!

Thanks for posting this. :thumbsup:

[tandem5]

15. haha one of these polls is not like the other hmmm hmm hmm hmm hmm

[goodgd_yall]

18. Here are some interesting results from the publicpolicypolling.com website

For those voting for Hillary, the economy & jobs is the most important issue followed by health care

For those voting for Obama, Immigration is the top issue, followed by the War in Iraq.

[JustinL]

23. that's incorrect

The top issues of Clinton supporters are as follows:

   38%: Economy and jobs
   31%: War in Iraq
   17%: Health care
   5%: Education
   3%: Tax
   3%: Moral and family values
   3%: Immigration
   1%: Other

The top issues of Obama supporters are as follows:

   37%: War in Iraq
   32%: Economy and jobs
   16%: Health care
   5%: Education
   3%: Tax
   3%: Moral and family values
   3%: Immigration
   1%: Other

See post #21 to see how I arrived at these figures.

[goodgd_yall]

19. 66% of Obama's 53% vote is Republican

According to www.publicpolicypolling.com

I find that disturbing.

[JustinL]

21. you misinterpreted the results

The 66% figure is not the percentage of Obama supporters that are Republican, but rather the percentange of Republicans that support Obama. To figure out what percentage of Obama supporters are Republican, you need to do some math.

First, multiply the percentage of poll respondents who are Republican (9%) by the percentage of Republicans who support Obama (66%). This will give you the percentage of poll respondents who both support Obama and are Republican:

   66% x 9% = 0.66 * 0.09 = 0.0594 = 5.94%

Second, divide the above result by the total percentage of poll respondents who support Obama. This will give you the percentage of Obama supporters who are Republican:

   5.94% / 53% = 0.112075 = 11.2%

You made the same mistake in your post about the differing priorities of Clinton and Obama supporters.

[grantcart]

22. Only 9% republican cross over? Should be larger than that in Wisc.

tks for your clarification

[RiverStone]

26. Thank You!

Real math!

There ia a lot of this rumor going around - glad you have the real answer.

Hil's folks are getting desperate - and it shows.

[quantass]

20. Well deserved...It's going to be a great day!

[Charlie Czerbiak]

25. Breaking Rasmussen poll: McCain leads Obama in FL by 16%

Not a typo, 16%:

Rasmussen speculates that not seating their delegates is making them upset:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/florida_2008_presidential_election