Survey USA Texas Poll 2/16-18, Clinton: 50 Obama: 45

[Torgo Johnson]

Depending on Hispanic Turnout, Clinton is Either Slightly Ahead, or Not so Slightly Ahead, in Texas Democratic Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Texas today, 02/18/08, 15 days to the vote, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. BUT: there is "give" in these numbers that must be mentioned in the same breath. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton leads 2:1. SurveyUSA estimates that Hispanics make-up 32% of Democratic primary voters in a Primary today. If Hispanics vote in larger numbers, Clinton's lead is larger than the 5 points shown here. If Hispanics vote in smaller numbers, Obama runs stronger than these numbers show.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a727cce1-0546-4909-95cf-02f3bc9ab73c

[AJH032]

1. these polls are all over the place

I think they're good for showing overall trends, but other than that, very unreliable.

[Pirate Smile]

4. It actually is very close to the Texas C-50/O-48 poll CNN put out today.

It is tight.

The firewall is smokin' and Obama isn't even in the state yet. :D

[Herman Munster]

2. The Clinton people are expecting record hispanic turnout of 40% or more

I expect when all is said and done the margin in Texas will be similar to California. Hillary will win by 8-10 points.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

3. You keep saying that

Is there some kind of link for that reasoning?

[RummyTheDummy]

5. No, but my guess the Clinton campaign is paying him by the post

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

9. I hope he's getting paid

If he's doing it for free then it's kind of sad, in its own way.

[jezebel]

6. The Clinton people were expecting her to be the nominee already. NT

[loveangelc]

8. win.

[NJSecularist]

7. That's bullshit

You have absolutely no way to prove that the Hillary campaign is expecting a 40% Hispanic turnout.

Not to mention it is near impossible for it to happen.

[SKKY]

11. And that still won't be enough...

...anything less than 60/40 and she's toast. Also, it doesn't matter how large a Hispanic turnout they have because the delegates are based on the previous years elections turnout, which for Hispanic voters was historically low.

[TexasObserver]

10. They're overestimating the % of the primary that will be Hispanic & the % that will vote Hillary

They continually overestimate the % of Hispanics Hillary will get, because they overpoll older, who favor Hillary, and underpoll younger Latinos, who trend to Obama.

They also overestimate the % of the Dem vote that will be Hispanic. Blacks, whites and Hispanics will all vote in record numbers in the Texas Primary. Blacks will give O 85%, maybe 90% of their votes.

It's going to be Obama.

[Torgo Johnson]

12. Kick

[Robbins]

13. Texas

SurveyUSA shows CNN was right and It Is getting tight.Survey USA has been fairly right during the primary season.They were right on California.And showed Obama's big lead in Virginia when Pundits
were thinking It would be close.There Is nothing to suggest Texas will be like California.California has the Clintons more popular than In Texas.The early voting Is starting today.If SurveyUSA says It Is tight then I think we should count on It.