Polls for TX, OH, WI, PA -- visual representation of the trends.

[Buzz Clik]

The Texas and Wisconsin data are recent. The OH and PA polls are a week old.

Take from this what you will:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

1. This is the weirdest primary season I've ever seen. n/t

[Buzz Clik]

2. Agreed. Generally, the polls have been horrible predictors.

Keeping that in mind AND realizing the bounciness of the Pennsylvania data, notice the latest polling point for Obama. The line was not drawn through that point because it currently is isolated. If the next polling point shows a similar trend, Obama will be looking at a very sharp upward trend.

But ... the polls suck, and PA voting is two weeks away. :shrug:

[livetohike]

4. PA votes on April 22 - so Obama has plenty of time to campaign

here :hi:.

[spinbaby]

6. PA voting isn't until April

I'm looking forward to finally voting in a presidential primary that counts for something.

[Buzz Clik]

8. Feel free to wrap this up. Indiana is in May, and I'd be okay with being irrelevant...

... if it goes my way. ;)

[lapfog_1]

3. Those are four very strange graphs

never mind the names or even what the data represents.

In two populations something dramatic happened just recently for the "orange" group, whereas in two other populations very little has changed.

So, what's up with Ohio, Pennsylvania V. Wisconsin and Texas?

Do people in OH and PA have something different in their populations than WI and TX?

Lack of mass communications?

One candidate or the other has or has not visited there yet?

What is the trigger that we see so clearly in WI and TX that causes the sharp uptick of the orange lines?

[awaysidetraveler]

16. My guess is that the bulk of the polls are rigged against Obama.

The pollsters sold Hillary as the frontrunner first. People had no information about Obama, and the democrats didn't believe much of the negative information about HRC as a candidate.

The polls only have to attest to their accuracy once: directly before an election, wherein the actual results will become available.

However, long before the accuracy of the results matters, polls have a chance to influence the elections.

I believe that most of the polls out there are being used first to influence the elections. It's only at the last minute that they need to change, because that's when their accuracy will come into question.

Obama is winning despite the initial polling results of almost every state, which seems to prove my hypothesis.

[Buzz Clik]

20. interesting.... quite possibly true.

[lapfog_1]

23. No, I don't think that would be the case.

As I believe that the lines represent an average of a number of polls. And I believe that all four populations have the same polling organizations counted in the graphs (but it that isn't true, then there might be the difference!).

Hmmm. Now I need the data on how the graphs were created!

[kentuck]

5. It appears that Hillary may win PA and OH..

But TX may be an issue? Wisconsin looks like a tossup but the bad press for Obama in the last couple of days may give Clinton an edge there?

[underpants]

11. Over 2 weeks left before Ohio too

Obama closes like a miler. We'll see but from what I understand is Hillary's need to win these states (Obama is taking Wisconsin) with numbers in the 60's Pennsylvania may come too late.

[Buzz Clik]

14. "Obama closes like a miler." Oh, my. Spoken like a man who runs.

Obama has a miler's physique. I think you've hit the definitive sports analogy.

:yourock:

[ORDem]

19. WI looks like a tossup? WTF? Well, we'll see tonight.... :)

:kick:

[thoughtcrime1984]

22. I think my state will disappoint you! nt

[TexasObserver]

7. I'd put Obama ahead in Texas. The polls are skewed because they include a lobby group's numbers.

TCUL? Please!!

Since when do we use privately contracted push polls by Texas banking lobby groups?! The crap that gets reported and used without so much as one MSM wonk saying "who the fuck are these guys?!"

Wisconsin, probably right.

Penn probably right, but it's two months out.

Ohio, don't know, but it's two weeks out.

[mod mom]

9. Don't give up on Ohio-folks! In the turn out in GOTV organizing is any indication

those pollsters are in for a rude awakening!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

10. Nicer slope line for Obama on all of those except PA.

Looks like Wisconsin, Texas, and maybe even Ohio will go for Barack. PA's much iffier--unless that expected bounce comes post TX.

[Buzz Clik]

12. It's all hard to predict. But PA is two months away.

[Occam Bandage]

17. He hasn't campaigned yet in PA. Give it time.

[Barack_America]

21. I'm in PA and we're just getting fired up, baby!

Seriously. The campaign is officially here as of this past weekend and the events are being scheduled so fast and furious that I can no longer keep up. There is literally something going on every day of the week here in Philly. Here are my invitations for this week.

Tonight:
Primary watching party, organizing

Tomorrow:
GOTV opportunity in North Philly

Thursday:
Debate watching party

Friday:
Phonebanking to Ohio

Saturday:
Voter registration, campaign training

The number of opportunities has literally exploded in the past 2 days. I can't even imagine what it's going to be like after March 4. I'm starting to understand what Iowa must feel like! lol.

[Khaotic]

13. If Hillary Loses Texas ...

[Buzz Clik]

15. The wreck of the Hilldenberg.

[polichick]

18. In my PA town all you see are Obama bumper stickers...

Haven't seen a single Clinton sticker ~ though there are a few Ron Paul yard signs.

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

26. In Pittsburgh (Oakland area), there are few stickers

and not many people are talking about the elections yet. I predict that this is part of the reason PA hasn't turned toward Obama. When our primaries get closer, I expect the trend to look more like Texas.

[book_worm]

24. Wow! Survey USA has Obama within five of Clinton in TX!!

and he hasn't even really begun campaigining there yet.

[Buzz Clik]

25. The fascinating aspect about these polling numbers in Hillary strongholds...

... is that about 2 weeks before the primary, the numbers take a sharp break upward for Obama every time. Sometimes he catches her, sometimes he doesn't. But the lead always narrows tremendously.

[Khaotic]

27. Texas Resident & Celebrity Builder Endorses Obama

Bob held a press conference and told the media it's okay that Barack shares his positive message and vision; encourages Obama to continue to build on Yes We Can!