SurveyUSA: Obama Beats McCain in Virginia, Clinton loses (O-51% M-45% / M-48%-C-45%)

[Pirate Smile]

SurveyUSA: Obama Beats McCain in Virginia

by lowkell
Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:05:27 AM PST

According to a brand new poll by SurveyUSA (which nailed the Virginia primary results, btw), Barack Obama beats John McCain in Virginia by 6 points, 51%-45%! Obama wins every region of the state except for Shenandoah, with his biggest margin in northern Virginia (61%-38%). In contrast, Hillary Clinton loses to John McCain in Virginia by 3 points, 48%-45%. Clinton loses every region of the state, except for northern Virginia, where she holds a 3-point margin (49%-46%).

lowkell's diary :: ::
This is the latest in a series of SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls that show Obama winning -- and Clinton losing -- states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon...and now Virginia. Obviously, polls aren't perfect (to say the least!), but still this is food for thought.

UPDATE: See here for an interesting analysis of Obama's electoral vote prospects this November compared to Clinton's.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/19/12321/4111/1010/459685

Comments:

Actually he beats McCain nationwide (1+ / 0-)
the poll of polls on realclearpolitics has him winning the head to head against McCain nationally while Hillary loses the same contest.

And the numbers have been widening in that direction.

Iowa too (5+ / 0-)
#
IA-Pres
Feb 19 SurveyUSA
McCain (R) 52%, Clinton (D) 41%
#
IA-Pres
Feb 19 SurveyUSA
Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 41%

That's HUGE (3+ / 0-)
SUSA is proving that Obama is a much stronger general election candidate, especially in states where he has spent time.

The result from the SUSA Iowa poll out today are just stunning to me: link.

Obama 52 - McCain 41
Clinton 41 - McCain 51

Dems won everything in the state in 2006, Iowa should be a blue state in 2008. Also, Obama and Clinton both spent months going to every corner of this state, while McCain skipped the caucuses altogether. And yet Clinton, who people here have met and seen up close, can't get within 10 points of McCain. That is just stunning to me. The Dem should, by all rights, win Iowa by 10 in the fall, based on 2006 & the caucus turnout numbers.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/19/12321/4111/1010/459685

edit to add this summary from Raising Kaine:

UPDATE: 82 electoral votes -- Obama wins, Clinton loses
by: Scripple
Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 11:41:45 AM EST

Courtesy of the latest polls from TalkingPointsMemo:

Iowa (7 electoral votes):
McCain +11 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCain
Minnesota (10 electoral votes):
McCain +5 over Clinton
Obama +15 over McCain

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes):
McCain +7 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCain

Oregon (7 electoral votes):
McCain +3 over Clinton
Obama +9 over McCain

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes):
McCain +2 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCain

Nevada (5 electoral votes):
McCain +9 over Clinton
Obama +12 over McCain

Colorado (9 electoral votes):
McCain +14 over Clinton
Obama +7 over McCain


Scripple :: UPDATE: 82 electoral votes -- Obama wins, Clinton loses
These aren't insignificant margins, either -- most of these are leads outside the margin of error.
That's 69 electoral votes that we will most probably win with Obama as the nominee, and probably lose with Clinton as the nominee.

More importantly for us, if Obama has these big leads in these states, he can focus attention on redder states... like, I don't know... Virginia?

However, if Clinton has to fight in these states, what do you think the chances are of her competing in Virginia? Not very likely, I'd say.

UPDATE: New Survey USA Poll has McCain +3 over Clinton here in Virginia, with Obama +6 over McCain! I've updated the title to reflect that.

In total that's a shift of 164 electoral votes, depending on who our nominee is.

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=13016

[book_worm]

1. State after state Obama is beating McCain while HRC is running behind

WI, MN, WA, VA, PA, CO.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

8. don't forget OR, and WA (where Obama leads McPain and Hillary trails)

Hillary is more electable NOT.

[CorpGovActivist]

13. .

[Renew Deal]

2. Hillary is turning into Mondale in a hurry

We need to avoid this catastrophe.

[TexasObserver]

3. There are 15-20 states Obama can win that Hillary will never carry.

[napi21]

5. What States are you talking about?

MANY of the States Obama has already won in the Dem primary will NEVER be won by a Dem, no matter who it is!

[napi21]

4. IF... and that's a big IF, the polls are raliable, all the damn fighting around here

is just plain DUMB! People yelling at each other over Super Delegates, dirty tricks, and everythng else you can think of! I've said it before...there will be a chosen candidate by April 23rd after the Pa. primary. I happen to think it will be Obama, but nobody knows for sure yet. I don't trust the polls at all! I don't know how any of you can either, after the mess they made of predicting NH!

[Robbins]

6. Obama

This Is huge.Virginia has not gone to a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson.Obama can carry It.

Let's look at polls shall we. Obama takes the Bush States of Virgina,Nevada,and Colorado.He does what Kerry couldn't and takes Iowa.He Does what Gore Couldn't and takes New Hampshere.He keeps
Washington State,Oregon,Minnesotta,Wisconsion,and Pennsylvnia In the Democrats column.Yes He loses
Florida but Florida may be a lost cause at this point.No Democrat may be able to do now what Gore did(we all know he trully won Florida) and the last poll of Ohio has him 2 behind Mccain.

The Obama can't win memo Is thrown out of the door.He lost New Hamphshere and Nevada In the primarys
but would win them against Mccain(Unlike Hillary) this bodes well for the General election.Obama could win the Kerry states take back the gore states of Iowa and New Mexico wins Virginia,Nevada,and Colorado amd could have shots at Missouri,West Virginia,Ohio.

Obama can also help us build up our senate majority so we can strip Lieberman of the chairmanship of the Homeland security committee and tell him he can over to Mccain and the Conservites(remember he stands behind Mccain as he talking about conservative agendas) and can work on getting some things done.

[napi21]

7. Hmmmm.....I wish I could believe you were right, but you can't

assume a Dem can win States like Iowa, and many other southern & mid west States just because they won the Dem primary there. I LAUGH when I read posts about any Dem. winning SC & Ga! THAT will never happen! I think we can HOPE for Va, NV, WVa, and States like that, but to say ANY Dem can & will win there is dreaming right now. There's way too many variables and WAY too much time between now and November!

[Pirate Smile]

9. kick

[electropop]

10. As a Virginian, I sure hope my state helps elect a DEM.

I happen to prefer Obama on policy anyway, so it's all good. So far.

[BringBigDogBack]

11. It's obvious at this point...

With Clinton atop the ticket we don't stand a chance AND we'll get wiped out down-ticket. Yippee.

[Scurrilous]

12. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Hippo_Tron]

14. But, but McCain is a war hero with no skeletons in his closet...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: