Hillary was up in WI by as much as 22% months ago...

[jenmito]

So why is the MSM painting a possible Hillary win as an "upset" or a "comeback" if she "pulls this off"? Polls from the past months 'til today:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_primary-270.html

[Seen the light]

1. She won't win

Her campaign dies tonight as a state seemingly custom-built for her (a primary with plenty of white/working-class voters) goes easily for Obama.

[jenmito]

6. That could very well be. But why is the media acting as if she's been behind the whole time? n/t

[grantcart]

8. to be fair they keep mentioning that based simply on demographics this is a state that should be

good for her.

[jenmito]

13. That's true.

:hi:

[Seen the light]

9. Clinton team is amazing at the expectations game

And the MSM buys it each and every time.

Won't matter though.

[jenmito]

15. I agree.

I wish the media would challenge them sometimes!

[Cha]

32. So the m$$m musta had to scramble after

Obama was not out after Super Tues like hilary promised.

[Yael]

18. Because they have nothing else to talk about and need everyone watching until

9pm EST for the ad revenue.

[jenmito]

29. True. But they COULD fill some of that time by pointing out that she was once ahead by 22%!

And that even if he comes CLOSE to her that should be seen as a victory for HIM.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

52. bling

:think:

[Cosmocat]

36. They did the same thing on Super Tuesday ...

Obama made up massive amounts of ground to get to the point to draw even on her in a very short period of time, but somehow after a week they made it out how he somehow fell short ...

[JVS]

34. This state is not custom made for her. It's too upper mid-western for her.

MN, IA, ND, WI. Bad places for her.

[lisa58]

2. she was up "22%" everywhere months ago...

...she's running a crappy campaign and/or Obama is running a great one.

[nomorewhopper]

7. here's another graph. shows what happens when ppl stop dealing with name recognition and start....

paying attention

[lisa58]

14. This is why Clinton can't win...

...proportional delegates!

Obama wins and/or closes the gap whenever he shows up. Clinton wasn't prepared for it. Spent her money like Super Tuesday was the end of the game and was caught off-guard.

Stupid move on their part or as they said in the Odd Couple (that's how old I am)

Never assume!

[jenmito]

19. Nice! And I'm SURE that would apply in FL, too, n/t

[jenmito]

17. True. But I've heard some THs saying Obama has to win BIG in order to keep his "mo" going!

:shrug:

[lisa58]

22. Talking Heads are just that...

...if Clinton "wins" Wisconsin - everyone looks to Texas and Ohio

...if Obama wins "small" - everyone looks to Texas and Ohio

...if Obama wins "big" - everyone looks to Texas and Ohio

it's not over tonight - it's just a taste of what's to come.

[jenmito]

28. Exactly. It IS all about TX and OH but they need a storyline to fill the time 'til Mar. 4th.

:hi:

[jefferson_dem]

3. Right. This state should be hers in a big way. We'll see...

[jenmito]

31. I LOVE that graph! Thanks.

:hi:

[rinsd]

4. Yeah we should go by the polls from Sept vs. the last 2 months.

:eyes:

[jenmito]

10. My point, since you missed it, is that the media is portraying this as a race she was never leading

But she was up by big double digits months ago.

[rinsd]

16. She's led just a single poll in WI since early Dec.

Coupled with Obama's momentum I think a win in WI for Hillary could be characterized as a comeback.

But hey you've got your meme and you have to stick to it.

[Occam Bandage]

24. There weren't any polls for months. Nice try.

[rinsd]

27. How does that contradict what I said?

She led in 1 poll taken in Feb which were the only polls taken since early Dec.

:shrug:

[Occam Bandage]

30. "She only led in one poll since early Dec" suggests Obama was otherwise leading. In fact,

Obama was trailing until mid-February.

[rinsd]

35. We don't know if he was trailing or not without polling data.

Here's every poll RCP lists for WI(apparently they no longer trust ARG)

Poll	        Date	   Sample	Obama	Clinton	Spread
RCP Average	02/08 - 02/14	-	46.3	42.0	Obama +4.3
ARG*	        02/17 - 02/18	600 LV	52	42	Obama +10.0
PPP*	        02/16 - 02/17	822 LV	53	40	Obama +13.0
ARG*	        02/15 - 02/16	600 LV	43	49	Clinton +6.0
Res2000/WISC	02/13 - 02/14	400 LV	47	42	Obama +5.0
Rasmussen	02/13 - 02/13	855 LV	47	43	Obama +4.0
SV(R)	        02/08 - 02/10	LV	45	41	Obama +4.0
SV (R)	        12/07 - 12/09	400 LV	29	36	Clinton +7.0
U. of WI	11/27 - 12/05	260 A	26	39	Clinton +13.0
WPR	        10/30 - 11/08	Adults	25	43	Clinton +18.0
SV (R)	        09/14 - 09/16	600 LV	22	44	Clinton +22.0
SV (R)	        07/13 - 07/15	LV	24	40	Clinton +16.0
SV(R)	        05/04 - 05/06	800 LV	25	38	Clinton +13.0

[Occam Bandage]

37. Her support remained darn steady from May to February. I'm not thinkin' there was an

invisible spike and crash.

[rinsd]

41. It basically reflected national heats till voting started

Obama has outworked her in WI.

[jenmito]

38. So ARG had her leading a couple days ago. Thanks!

:hi:

[jenmito]

33. And he hasn't led a single poll 'til then.

Nice "meme" YOU got there.

[NJSecularist]

11. Why can't Hillary hold onto her lead?

[lisa58]

42. because she is is running a crappy campaing and...

...Obama is not.

[dmallind]

5. because Obama's leading

Polls from months ago are obviously far less relevant than polls from the last few days.

[jenmito]

39. The storyline should include the fact that she WAS leading even just a couple days ago

according to the ARG poll.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

12. Because It Would Be?

:shrug:

Wow. For someone promoting a candidate for 'change', you certainly have a hard time understanding it.

:rofl:

[jenmito]

40. No it wouldn't be. She used to be EXPECTED to win. The state is MADE for her.

She was up just a couple days ago. Understand THAT.

[jackson_dem]

20. She was down 13 just yesterday in a poll

[NJSecularist]

25. Wisconsin should be Hillary's state

90% of WI is white, and alot of them are working class whites.

[Occam Bandage]

26. Indeed. It's almost tailor-made for a HRC comeback: a working-class white state.

[jenmito]

44. She was up 6 just two days ago in a poll.

[jackson_dem]

59. ARG isn't a legit firm

;)

It would be an upset for the simple reason that Obama has been consistently ahead. It is a like football game where a team is losing the first quarter bu leads 28-10 after the third quarter and still loses. No one would suggest the winner who overcome a 28-10 deficit did not come back because it was leading early.

[jenmito]

62. Since when?

Nah. It's like a top-rated team beating an underdog team and then the underdog team taking the lead in the last quarter but then losing by just a couple points.

[sniffa]

21. Which is why I predicted her to win by 20 tonight

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4653700&mesg_id=4653800

[jenmito]

45. But I don't think the media will portray it the way you say...

even though they should.

[Occam Bandage]

23. It would be an upset. But nowhere near as big an upset as Obama's win would be. Look at this:

[jenmito]

46. Thanks for that graph. I love it! n/t

[FlyingSquirrel]

43. In the past week numerous polls combined show her 5-6% behind.

[jenmito]

51. But nobody's really saying how surprising that is since this state is MADE for her. n/t

[usregimechange]

47. That would mean the M$M would have to acknowledge reality before hand

[jenmito]

53. I agree.

:hi:

[Thrill]

48. Obama has had to come back from over 20 points in almost

every state

[jenmito]

55. Yup. And he HAS! He's BEATEN her by over 20 points in almost

every state.

[carlotta]

49. Wisconsin is almost Obama's home state

His hometown of Chicago is a mere hour and a half away from Milwaukee and people are shuttling back and forth between the two states all the time. This is like being the favorite son--he ought to be able to win big--if he doesn't, he has trouble.

[Connonym]

54. You're not from WI are you?

Besides Hillary is also from IL. Generally speaking there's little love lost for "FIBs" in WI.

[jenmito]

56. Then why was Hillary up by over 20%? n/t

[Major Hogwash]

50. Because they can't admit that Obama has the MOMENTUM!

They won't even mention the word.

[jenmito]

57. I've heard them say he has momentum, and that if he even wins by "just a few points" it will

slow down or stop his momentum!

[Connonym]

58. It's what Wisconsinites have been dreading

The casual use of insulting stereotypes. The implications that we're nothing more than northern IL. The gross mispronunciation of the names of every city. Hell half the US can't even pronounce Green Bay correctly, clearly more complicated names like Ashwaubenon and Oconomowoc are going to be butchered.

[madrchsod]

60. hey wait a minute! nothing more than northern illinois?

did you know that northern illinois was once part of wisconsin? we share more with wisconsin
than we do with the rest of illinois south of I-80

[Connonym]

65. I guess more accurately I should have said Illinois, North

the way some folks look at Canada in relation to the US.

[MzShellG]

61. Once hurricaine Obama makes landfall, the atmosphere often changes.....

For the better.... ;-)

[jenmito]

64. You got THAT right!

:hi:

[cottonseed]

63. A horse race is a better story.

It's better for ratings then reporting it as the downer cows that the Clinton campaign is turning out to be.