Nine LANDSLIDES: HRC 0 out of 9 in One on One Elections

[grantcart]

What changed since Feb 5th? . . . It turned into a two person race.

HRC is unable to use triangulation;

It exposes the full impact of her high negatives in elections. In a 3-7 way race she appears strong with a 40 point floor. When she runs one on one it exposes her 40 point ceiling.

Cumulative Totals on Elections from Feb 5th (w/o Wisconsin/Hawaii)


1) Primary Votes Obama 64% Clinton 36%
LA, VA, MD, DC O 1,392,000 C 794,000


2) Caucus States Obama 69% Clinton 31%
V.I., NE, ME, WA O 51,000 C 31,000


Hillary Clinton has yet to win a single contest when faced on a straight up one on one contest.

This is not a close contest it it a rout. Hillary Clinton has no hope of winning the nomination and it simply now a question how much damage she can do to the party and assist Sen. McCain's campaign.

She lost in states in every region with every demographic type of combination.

[Botany]

1. Go Wisconsin

http://www.badgerbadgerbadger.com/

[grantcart]

6. thanks for the link

[Window]

61. ..

Peace:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

25. I am not getting out of your link but the borders is yours ok?

[Renew Deal]

2. It's 9. Hawaii hasn't voted yet.,

Don't get too far ahead. ;)

[grantcart]

4. ok but the larger point is that when it comes down to one on one

elections they are absolute landslides this is not a trend it is systemic of her candidacy it was only viable when she could triangulate and hide her negatives.

[grantcart]

8. I edited and will change back later lol

[Renew Deal]

9. OK

Don't want to jinx anything! :D

[Tesha]

11. Hawaii appears to be "in the bag" for Obama, unless the polls are astoundingly incorrect. (NT)

[grantcart]

23. It is entirely possible that Hawaii will be a higher net in delegates for

Obama than Wisconsin if he sweeps

[BeatleBoot]

3. One step closer

To a McCain White House.

[grantcart]

5. yes your point is that a person who cannot win one on one in the

democratic primaries will win a one on one in the general great logic

And just so we all remember our history Bill Clinton never won a one on one election in the General either.

[BeatleBoot]

15. So you're hoping for Bloomberg to step in?

[grantcart]

20. Many commentators have suggested he is gearing a run only if Hillary would be the nominee

Obama will continue to grow and bring in a 40 state victory. Before you reply with reflex answer think about the field including Hillary Clinton that he has soundly defeated. The strongest political dynasty in the last 40 years stopped dead. Do you really think that he will have a problem with McCain?

[Carolina]

29. good for you

putting that Shillbot in its place.

[grantcart]

38. thank you but its a low bar lol

[book_worm]

12. the polls show HRC losing one state after another to McCain

states like MN, IA, CO, PA, WI, VA while Obama beats McCain.

[BeatleBoot]

19. Dont' Worry

The shit hasn't even come close to being flung yet.

The Right Wing Nazi Scum have a special place for bHo in their playbook.

[grantcart]

22. So in that case we should have a candidate who actually can win

a one on one contest

[Laurab]

30. Probably not much Clinton hasn't already tried

or plans to try. Obama has a really quick reaction team. He won't be "swiftboated".

OTOH - they've been saving up new Clinton stuff for the past 10+ years, PLUS her negatives are way higher than Obama's.

One day you're going to have to face facts - the majority of people just don't like Hillary Clinton. I used to like Bill, and didn't have much of an opinion at all of Hillary, although she's my senator. Bill has disgusted me with his actions through this campaign, and Hillary just looks worse and worse to me.

Obama can and will win the GE if nominated - Hillary, not so much.

[Colobo]

18. Obama will beat McCain. I'm telling you, Beatle.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Uh huh.

[Alexander]

24. Yikes! Is that image doctored at all?

I can't tell if a yes or no answer would be scarier.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. Heeeeere's Johnny!

[grantcart]

32. did you hear Maher's line that McCain is running on the

"Hey you kids get off my lawn" ticket? I laughed for 4 hours and my family thinks I am crazy

[nomorewhopper]

31. ahhh! it's a moral monster!

[FlyingSquirrel]

65. Brrrrrrrr

:scared:

[CorpGovActivist]

7. Virginia is key. As are other Upper South/Appalachian/Border States. K&R nt

[grantcart]

33. its gone beyond any region now

[CorpGovActivist]

36. Agreed, but the proof of principle was seen here last week. The outsized margin...

... he garnered here proves he can permanently transform the Electoral College map.

- Dave

[jasmine621]

10. WI is snot a landslide...yet. nt

[book_worm]

13. true...but it will be a solid victory--with Obama making big inroads with Clinton's "base."

[grantcart]

16. 13 points in a state that has Hillary friendly demographics is a landslide

but the cumulative number is

But that really is not the point

She is stuck in the low 40s when there are alot of people running then it looks great

When she gets one on one its a landslide. This is not a random pattern. She enters the race with the highest negative polls of anyone running since 1980.

[CorpGovActivist]

67. .

[grantcart]

39. it is now officially a landslide

[nomorewhopper]

14. this is a very telling post. i figured it would be flamebait but its v. good

40 point floor vs. 40 point ceiling, that's an excellent analysis of the situation.

[grantcart]

17. thank you

[TexasObserver]

26. Imagine the cacophony of Clinton outrage if he lost 9 in a row this badly

All we would hear is "how dare he keep going?!"

[grantcart]

27. after two in fact after New Hampshire it was just hurting the future president.

[TexasObserver]

37. When delusion morphs into madness, this is what a candidate does.

she's losing her grasp on reality, literally

[cottonseed]

43. I was thinking the same thing this morning.

These next few weeks are going to get ugly, and it'll will come from one side of the duo. If it was the other way around, Obama would be chased out of town.

[TexasObserver]

45. OBAMA will continue to rise and she will continue to fall, as she goes more negative.

[cottonseed]

51. Looks like Wisconsin voters agree with you.

nt

[CorpGovActivist]

44. But the shoe is on the other foot. Moral relativism is their stock in trade at Clinton HQ.

[TexasObserver]

48. Outrage. Victim Playing. Dirty Tricks. The three Hillary pillars.

[CorpGovActivist]

49. Crocodile Crying falls under all three.

[grantcart]

59. this is an excellent point you should start a thread about this tomorrow

[The River]

34. She'll Drag It Out

until Texas / Ohio deliver a final defeat.
She can deliver her concession speech from the Alamo.

I don't know what kind of damage she will do between now and
then but it could be considerable.

[grantcart]

41. I am forecasting that a group of her own superdelegates are going to meet

and a group of them 25-30 are going to give her the message and switch. It will be lead by African Americans who will be desperate to reclaim some credibility in their own community

[CorpGovActivist]

42. I'll buy you pints until you can't stand another...

... if you're right.

:toast:

[grantcart]

46. well I am thinking of the AA leaders who are getting roasted on the street

for not having the balls to hand back and see what the brother could do. I would imagine that there are several dozen bright young professional blacks who are planning on putting their names in for a primary run to see what kind of reaction they may be able to capitalie on. Forget JE these guys are going to have to move fast.

[XemaSab]

35. This is her closest loss since Feb 5.

All the others have been by 20+ points.

[CorpGovActivist]

40. She's got the big mo now!

:rofl:

[grantcart]

50. lol

[Moh96]

54. lol

[HeraldSquare212]

47. Good point - head-to-head, she can't win.

[grantcart]

60. they keep bringing up Obama cant win the big states well yeah

if they run 20 states at a time and you have 3 candidates no he cant win them all

But now that you have 2 candidates and have the states come up in twos and threes RUN THE TABLE

[Johnny__Motown]

52. I know I will get flamed for this, but if Edwards dropped out earlier it would have saved

us all alot of trouble.

I Know, I Know. You think he still had a chance. He didn't. Once he lost Iowa he was done. He should have gone with Biden, Dodd and Richardson. They did the right thing at the right time.

[depakid]

53. One glaring thing you overlook is Hispanics

a demographic he does poorly with and one that may well jump to McCain in the general election.

[grantcart]

57. He doesn't do poorly with them. In LA there has been along standing

competition between highly orgainized Black and Latino political machines that has always carried some bad feeling because the Latinos were originally gerrymandered out of power. These machines led by folks like Villaragosa are very well organized and went with Hillary (presumably thinking they would have major representation in the primaries) In California she took a huge lead in Hispanics and that created the impression that it was a nationwide trend. Its not.

Elsewhere Clinton has led but by a much narrower margin.

In Texas Hispanics are dispersed and have moved from the southern areas into the urban areas dominated by key Obama groups like the African American community in Houston for example. Also younger Hispanics are breaking for Obama so that in Texas there is a possibility that Obama will carry Hispanics which would effectively end Hillary's campaign. For example you iconic Hispanics like George Lopez are for Obama. You will still be able to find lists of old party types lining up for Clinton but as in the rest of the country the street is not following the old geezers.

[Radical Activist]

55. Huckabee has done better than Hillary since 2/5, and yet

the media declares him over with while Hillary is still taken seriously. She's still being favored by large parts of the media.

[grantcart]

58. that will start to change tomorrow the infighting will spill into the

media and different Hillary factions will start leaking

[TheDonkey]

56. Fascinating numbers. TY for sharing. Wow. Rout indeed.

[Tom Rinaldo]

62. It was a two person race before February 5th also.

John Edwards dropped out before Super Tuesday. Your post is a correct report of what has happened since Feb. 5th, but it is fundementally inaccurate regarding your larger premise. All 22 (or 23 I forget) Feb. 5th results were for two person races also.

[grantcart]

63. You are correct in that John Edwards dropped out before the

actual day of voting but it still was having a significant effect. In California 30% of the ballots were mailed in with the total for the primary 52 Clinton 43 Obama 7% Edwards and others. But my point is more to the issue of having 2 candidates clearly defined in a specific area compete against each other. Super Tuesday was not a fair test because it was a cacophony of venues, media, surrogates and the remnants of Edwards. When all of that was settled down and it was a straight one on one contest the results are strikingly similar (with the exception of Virgin Islands) Obama's range was between 57 to 75 and Hillary's range between 25 and 40 (hitting 40 only once). That is an amazing and very consistent result.

If the Clintons had achieved this record they would have already orchestrated enormous pressure some time ago to stop "a foolish adventure that has no hope of winning, etc". Now there is no reasonable scenario where Hillary can win but she lumbers on. In a way I hope that she does because it will make Obama stronger and the only casualty will be Clinton dignity which as we all know has tremendous elasticity. My only concern is that a wounded animal can lash out and I certainly hope that she doesn't attempt anything of such a bizarre nature that it would not only embarass her but be damaging to our nominee.

Again your information is correct and I should have said something to the effect that "after Feb 5th the two candidates were able to take each other on in clearly defined one on one contests - all of which Hillary has lost in a land slide.

And finally as much as I like Obama, and I do, I think this has a lot more to do with Clinton's falling apart than Obama's skill which again I think are significant.

[Tresalisa]

64. Thank you for explaining this so clearly that even I could understand.

You get a rec and a :kick: from me. :hi:

[grantcart]

66. Thank you

[candice]

68. Landslides? The delegates are split proportionally.