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Exit poll: Among Democrats it was 51-48 but Obama won rethugs 70-30

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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:21 PM
Original message
Exit poll: Among Democrats it was 51-48 but Obama won rethugs 70-30
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:39 PM by jackson_dem
Democrats: O 51, H 48
Rethugs: O 70, H 30
"Independents": O 62, H 34

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#WIDEM

4 points of Obama's 11 point margin came from rethug support alone, then there are "independents".
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
1. Wow! He beat Hillary in every group!
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Darth_Kitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. How good is it that right-wingers are only choosing him to oust Hillary?
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:24 PM by Darth_Kitten
Why do they even get a say.

Americans, you make things so difficult sometimes.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #9
38. rethugs were 9% of the total.
They didn't decide this race. At all.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #38
50. They accounted for one-third of Obama's margin
Then there are rethugs who register as independent but vote consistently rethug...
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I Vote In Pittsburgh Donating Member (387 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #9
47. Hmm... reminds me of..
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LordJFT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
131. Obama won among dems too in case you missed it
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jasmine621 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
123. This is the story within the story. nt
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PretzelWarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
2. so you're saying he won over all of them? Cool.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
3. Great news.
The same would happen to Hillary in the GE.
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I Vote In Pittsburgh Donating Member (387 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
4. 18-29 year olds 71% for obama
Beautiful...
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Darth_Kitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #4
22. Hit 30 and hope deflates.........
and life suddenly gets a lot harder.
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anamandujano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #22
32. Hit 30 and bullsh*t detectors are working at last.
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Critters2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #32
102. Exactly. I voted for Reagan when I was 18. Then I grew up. nt
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I Vote In Pittsburgh Donating Member (387 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #22
42. Good
I won't hit 30 till Obama finishes his second term, so this doesn't bother me at all :toast:
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anigbrowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #22
51. 38 Obama supporter agrees, still likes Obama
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #22
93. He won ever age group except 65+
18-24 (9%) C 26% O 73%
25-29 (7%) N/A N/A
30-39 (12%) C 37% O 63%
50-64 (31%) C 44% O 55%
65 or Over (20%) C 58% O 41%
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
5. Republicans only 9% of total vote
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. Shh. He doesn't want people to know that.
;)
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:24 PM
Original message
"Independents" 28%
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:25 PM by jackson_dem
90% of "independents" consistently vote for one party.

People who honestly admit to being rethugs were 9% but they accounted for one-third of Obama's victory margin because they voted for him so overwhelmingly...

We shouldn't have rethugs and "independents" who voted for Bush twice, Dole having anything to do with choosing the Democratic nominee. We need to change the rules for 2012.
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
21. I'm an independent
:shrug: And I never voted for Bush. Most the people I know aren't actually affiliated with either party.
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Darth_Kitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #21
30. uh?
this is democractic underground?
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #30
39. Yeah and so?
Should I leave? Have I ever supported voting for anyone other than a democrat on here? Have I espoused any view that's not considered progressive or democratic?
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #30
134. Many states don't allow you to register by party.
So it's actually common. In fact, there's a lot of states where it's politically beneficial be an independent. Just look at NH.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #30
135. And non-Dems are welcome. Read the fucking About section.
NT!

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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #21
36. yet you post here
You are an example of an "independent" who is effectively a supporter of one party who just doesn't formally affiliate with a party. Most vote consistently for one party.
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #36
45. So then how many of those "independents" (as you refer to them)
Are consistently democrats or republicans? BTW, most of my friends consider themselves independents and 99% of the time vote straight democratic.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #45
54. About 90%. Very few are true independents
So the real rethug turnout was probably 22% and it was going 70-30 for Obama.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #54
64. Do they not vote in the general election?
Do they not decide elections?

You really want as your nominee the candidate who loses the independent vote? How does this statistic make her the stronger candidate?

I'm dying to know.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #64
106. Yeah, half of them will vote for McCain and 85-95% of the rethugs will vote for him
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #106
110. Is that what the head-to-head polls suggest so far?
Be honest.

Who is winning those polls and what role are Independents playing there? You follow this shit. I know that you know the answer to this question.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #110
111. Rethugs, yes. Indies very close. Obama has only a 4-5 point lead in those polls
It isn't as if he is leading by 11 like "new" candidate Bush was at this time in 2000. When Obama gets attacked by rethugs, as Hillary as been for 16 years, that 4-5 point lead will go away like Dukakis, Bush 00', and Kerry discovered.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #111
119. And Hillary?
C'mon, you don't really think that she's still the stronger candidate, do you?

Before these primaries, I went on record here saying that the irrational Hillary-hatred is strong in the Midwest. I said that men certainly would not vote for her. That Independents would not vote for her in the Midwest. That her lead among women would not hold in the Midwest. This has all happened. These sentiments will not be undone should she be the Democratic nominee. People in the Midwest will simply vote for McCain.

Have I not earned your respect by now for you to believe me on this?
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #54
72. So, you're saying
of the 28% identified as independent, 22% of that was republican and 78% of that was democratic.


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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #72
105. No
I added the 9% rethug vote to the "independents" who are actually rethugs (if you assume, as an educated guess, that 45% of them are rethugs).
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #54
121. stab in the dark. you don't have a clue
what the "real rethug" turnout was. not. a. clue.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #54
133. That's some pretty fuzzy math
Not to mention dishonest. :thumbsdown:
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Cheeseburger Walrus Donating Member (71 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:38 PM
Response to Original message
67. To what do you attribute the source...



...of your statistics. Perhaps you should get back to the trail of tears with these weak apologetics?

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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #67
82. Um, it's in the exit polls
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Cheeseburger Walrus Donating Member (71 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #82
114. Oh, TammyWammy...


I meant to respond to another JacksonDem quote, "90% of "independents" consistently vote for one party." I think, bearing in mind that I am number one at number two, I should remind you that we are all just a flush away from the next exit poll. Welcome to politics, TammanyWammy.
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DemGa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
6. Repugs are throwing it to Obama.....strategy.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:24 PM
Original message
Except he WON among Democrats...... nice try.....
...
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
19. by 3% - wow -
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Original message
After all you Hillary supporters said he'd LOSE if it was only Democrats....
.....so he blew all your theories away.

You can't spin this.

The only group that Hillary won was uneducated, post-menopausal, white women.

That's it.

It's over.
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anamandujano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
41. If it were only Democrats, his delegate number would fall badly.
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NashVegas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #19
61. Which He Wouldn't Have, But Thanks to All the Republicans Giving Him Momentum
Best of luck.
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. Then wouldn't more of republicans have voted than just 9%?
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #15
23. 9% is triple the number that usually votes in Democratic primaries....
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tammywammy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Did they have overall higher turnout?
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anamandujano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #23
58. Thanks for bringing your knowledge to this. I appreciate it.
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DemGa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #15
33. Because large numbers won't turn out for a strategy vote
Do you really think Repugs will vote Obama in the GE? That's some kind of idealism.
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Kaylee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:22 PM
Response to Original message
7. Forget Republicans....look at Independents!!!!
That is where the GE will be won.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
8. And... what's your point?
That Obama is building a large coalition?
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jillan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
10. I'm not surprised.....
the Repugs want him.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
11. So Obama won among Democrats! Cool..... completely blows your themes from earlier today out ....
...of the water.


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Darth_Kitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:25 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. Won? Seems like a statistical dead heat?
Later......
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #17
25. Um... "statistical dead heats" refer to polls.... when it comes to actual VOTE COUNT
... there is only WINS and LOSSES.

This wasn't a "sampling" of voters in Wisconsin.... it was ACTUAL voters.


Obama won all groups..... Obama WOULD HAVE won a closed primary of JUST Democrats.... Your memes have been exposed.
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Darth_Kitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #25
44. OOOO, my memes have been exposed.....
I'm such a skanky old broad.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #25
46. This is a poll, not an actual vote count
With the poll being so close you can't assume anything. 70-30 is clear, 51-48 isn't. For all we know Hillary could have won the Democratic vote today.
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #46
49. It is impossible to know what is the % on Republicans. The MOE is way too large.
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:35 PM by Mass
Who knows. They may be actually voting for Clinton.

The numbers for Democrats are much more reliable.

1400*9% = 136.

MOE of a sample of 135 = ~8 % (otherwise said unreliable).
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #49
56. It is 70-30 for Obama among rethugs in every state
The margin is so large, so consistent it is obvious what is happening.
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anigbrowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #46
57. For all we know, aliens stole her core voters
Let's face it, neither scenario is very likely. Your candidate looks to have lost by a significant margin no matter how you slice it.
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RummyTheDummy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
13. Thanks for posting...
I know you're a Clinton supporter so they can't be pleasant to look at.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
14. Do they ever ask if this is a primary-vote situation only for the Repubs?
I am wondering if the pollsters are being deliberately disingenuous. Of course, people will lie, but maybe some won't and they'll come out and say McCain is the presumptive nominee, anyway, so I'm voting for *insert name here* but in the GE I will let Reagan's ghost guide me.
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RunningFromCongress Donating Member (519 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
16. And that will make the GE a blow out...45 states is my estimate
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
18. He won Democrats - Or are Democrats not important either for the Clintons.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:27 PM
Original message
In the exit poll by 3. That isn't statistically significant
70-30 is clear cut, though...
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I Vote In Pittsburgh Donating Member (387 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
20. Education was insignificant in this contest
So much for the media meme of Obama only appealing to educated voters.

Obama won 58% of college educated voters, 54% of non college educated voters.
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
24. why did you put Independants in quotation marks? God what assholes.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:27 PM
Response to Reply #24
28. This is standard fare for jackson_dem
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #24
40. Because almost all "independents" consistently vote for one party
"Independent" is a label that makes them feel good but doesn't describe their true political leanings.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #40
55. bullshit. plain and simple bullshit.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #55
66. Get real
There is no sudden rise in "independent" thinking after over two centuries in American history. It is a chic label to have. "I think for myself! I am an independent!". When it comes to the voting booth almost all of them consistently vote for one party.
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LTR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:33 PM
Response to Reply #66
127. Got proof for this stuff?
I'll have you know I voted straight ticket in only one election - 2004.

In over 20 years of voting in elections, I've voted for Democrats, Republicans, Independents, Reform party, Grassroots Party (pro-marijuana) and various others. For many years, I considered myself to be an independent, though I have drifted more Democratic in the past few years. I know many independents who vote across party lines. Hell, practically all of the ones I know do.

Just because you make shit up does not make it true. I swear, some of the people posting in GD-P have no grasp of reality.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #55
115. Not bullshit. I've been an independent since I first started voting.
I have voted for Repubs at the local level if I know they're good people (yeah, it's rare), but consistently vote for the Dem in presidential elections or sit it out if I don't like either. In other words, I didn't vote for GHW bush because he's a waste of skin and oxygen, but I didn't vote for Bill Clinton either because I just didn't care for him.

I have only cast votes for Carter, Gore, and Kerry. The Kerry vote was because of the Supreme Court issue, not for the candidate himself. Howard Dean I would have gladly voted for, or Wes Clark.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:16 PM
Response to Reply #115
118. The 'one party' the OP refers to is the Republican party.
If you read his other posts he is quite clear that 'independents' (he always puts that in quotes) are in fact stealth republicans. I too, like you, am an unenrolled (independent) voter who consistently votes Democratic.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #118
122. But you're now agreeing with his premise that independents still represent one-party voters.
I have never seen any statistics to indicate whether independents tend to vote Repub or Dem. Now, that would be very interesting. It would certainly help us to understand these numbers a little better.

I don't like cross-over voting of any type. In Oregon, you must be a registered Dem or Repub and you can only vote in your party's primary. Even in the other states in which I lived, it never occurred to me to cross over and vote for anyone other than whom I support. It's basically dishonest. No way on God's green earth would I ever go to a caucus, I hate crowds and noise. :)

It's finally beginning to sink in how much our system needs to be repaired.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #122
130. No you are misunderstanding his argument.
Here is an example of what he means: "We shouldn't have rethugs and "independents" who voted for Bush twice, Dole having anything to do with choosing the Democratic nominee. We need to change the rules for 2012."

He is attempting to argue that independent = republican. It is a dishonest argument and he is deliberately stating it in a way that is oblique enough to confuse people.

In my state (NH) the independent (unenrolled) voters like me decide the elections. Very few Democratic enrolled voters vote Republican and very few Republican enrolled voters vote Democratic. Instead both groups pretty consistently vote their enrolled party. Elections are decided by shifts in the unenrolled independent voters. NH has swung from a sure Republican state to a swing state and now to a swing state leaning Democratic because of the shifting allegience of independents. This is simply the complete contrary example to the OP's thesis that a) independent voters consistently vote for one party and b) that one party is the republican party. Neither fact is true.

His argument has been (quite tediously for quite a while here) that Obama's victories are unfair because it is really just Republicans (and their secret army of independent voters) that are choosing Obama for us so that we will surely lose in November. It is a shit argument devoid of any facts to substantiate it.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #130
139. To tell you the truth, I'm misunderstanding a lot tonight, LOL!
Is New Hampshire typical of independent voting, though? Do independent voters in Wisconsin, or Texas, or wherever, do they typically vote the trend of the state? I'm probably asking questions that would require more research than either one of us is willing to dig into.

I don't think jackson_dem is saying Obama's victories are unfair. One of his posts on this thread he states with certitude that Obama did win "fair and square." I think what he's saying is that the well is poisoned and we can't trust the results. That's my take on it, anyway. But he still cites the Dems voting as a majority for Obama. Stats are stats.

For what it's worth, I would be extremely antsy if Hillary were winning with Republican support, also. I'm extremely suspicious of the GOP and their motives. The expression "too good to be true" comes to mind.

As for November, it's going to be an uphill battle against the steely-eyed patriarchal warrior (as the media is beginning to define him), even if he does look like he's got one foot in the grave.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #40
137. You're clueless. I'm an independent, and both candidates aren't liberal ENOUGH for me.
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 12:00 AM by Zhade
Your "analysis" is a joke.

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LadyVT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:27 PM
Response to Original message
27. Uh huh...that's what we keep pointing out, but we're singing to the wind
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:27 PM
Response to Original message
29. Repukes: 9% of total vote
Your post is lacking in the most basic honesty. He won. Get over it. You're grasping at non-existent straws. Just lame.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #29
43. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #43
59. Which, according to the math means it didn't matter.
So your are off to your fallback position: it was those darned independents. Shamelessly dishonest.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #43
60. Nope. My math's just fine.
He still would have won by a healthy 8 pts. Not one of your lame predictions has come true. Not one. Keep up that winning streak. It's awfully entertaining to see someone make one huge error after another. Love it.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #60
68. And "independents"?
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #68
75. lame and lamer
If you're suggesting that all those independents voted for Obama and that they're all going to vote for McCain in November, that's as off as all your other poor predictions. The fact is, and it's obvious to anyone who bothers to apply the most basic common sense, we don't win in November without indies. Period. And putting independents in quotation marks is simply childish. Grow up.
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
31. Clinton supporters to voters: you do not matter. We do not care. Except if you vote for her
Guess what, it does not work. In fact, it makes her lose more and more. Obama won women, Democrats, low income people, because they all realize it is all about her, not about people. Her excuses are so lame.
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liberalhistorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
34. Newsflash: We NEED
republicans in order to win in November, it's just that simple. That's why we need a candidate who has wide crossover appeal, which Obama does. I know people IRL who I never thought would vote for him, but they respect and admire him and feel that he knows how to talk to them as well as his base. You cannot disdain half of the country's population, that does NOT, and has NEVER, won us any elections. Period.
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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
35. I hate to say this, but did it ever occur to you that the Rethugs are
voting in the Dem Party primary to disrupt the Dem election? Eother that, or to get the candidate they want to run against elected as our nominee? Most of them don't like their candidate, but they can at least get a Pub back in the WH if they get a Dem candidate they think wan't win. The thought of this scares me to death! I also wouldn't be at all surprised that they'd do that!
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anamandujano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #35
48. That is what has been making me sick for a couple of weeks since
I got clued in.
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anigbrowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #48
70. Jackson_Dem says Republicans make up 4% of Obama's margin
of victory, that is 9% of the votes as a whole. Hmm, that means he still beat Clinton by about 9%. Sounds good to me.

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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #70
120. IF it's only 4% I don't care. The real problem is that I don't trust polls!
They've bee sooo wrong, how do we know it's only 4%?

I'm not so much concerned about beating Hillary. I actually think that's a done deal. I'm concerned about November! If there are more than 4% of the Pub vote influencing the Dem Primary, THAT'S a problem!
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thesubstanceofdreams Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
37. Bottom line: he won fair and square n/t

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anamandujano Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #37
53. Just like Bush in 2004, according to Obama.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
52. Republican (9%) 30% 70% N/A
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:40 PM by Warren Stupidity
9% of the respondants identified themselves as Republicans. 2.7% of the total vote consisted of Republicans voting for Hillary, 6.3% of the total vote consisted of Republicans voting for Obama. The margin of victory right now appears to be 11%. The 3.6 point difference in Republican votes for Obama did not alter the outcome, even if one accepts the theory that all of these votes were from people who intend to vote Republican in November.

A much more interesting number is the much larger turnout for the Democratic primary than for the Republican, continuing a trend seen in almost every state across the entire primary season. Regardless who wins in the end, we have an excellent chance of a strong victory in November.

edited out awful typos.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #52
62. Then there are "independents" who are in reality rethugs
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:41 PM by jackson_dem
28% claim to be independents. If we say 45% of them are rethug, with 45% being Democrats, and 10% being real independents, then 22% of the vote came from rethugs and it went 2:1 for Obama...
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #62
65. That's a very ignorant and arrogant statement.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #65
73. It's reality. Most of them vote consistently for one party. How "independent"
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NEDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #73
76. Seriously dude, she lost
You're looking really desperate
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #76
79. And? Did I say she didn't lose?
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NEDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #79
91. This grasping at non-existent straws
is quite pathetic really.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #73
80. Well, it appears that "one party" is the Democratic Party! And you're bitching??
:eyes:

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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #80
92. Not in November
Get real. Half these "independents" will vote for McCain in the general and 85-95% of these rethugs will. They should have nothing to do with selecting the Democratic nominee.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #92
94. OMG! Hi, Kreskin! Ladies and Gents, I present to you, The Amazing Kreskin!!
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #94
103. Contrary to the Church of Obama doctrine politics didn't start on Feb. 10, 2007
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #62
69. Did you type that with a straight face?
I'm just wondering 'cause I actually burst out laughing when I read it.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
63. That means Obama can pull votes from McCain in Nov. while still pulling in more Dem votes! Win/Win!!
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
71. What part of "he won Democrats" do you not understand?
What exactly are you bitching about here? What is your basis for complaining about the Republicans and Independents participating when he would have won without them?
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #71
74. He has nothing else to go on about.
It seems even he can't manage the "he cut her off" idiocy.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #71
78. It's the long goodbye of
all those who try and diminish each and every win by Obama. They contort themselves completely to do it. It's actually pretty funny at this point.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #78
84. He won fair and square. Who is saying otherwise?
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #84
95. oh, please. n/t
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #84
96. You are! By complaining about Independent and Republican participation.
By insisting that a 3% lead in Democratic voters is not statistically significant.

You are "saying otherwise" in every other post in this thread.

Are you okay? Seriously. I don't get where you are going with this at all.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #71
81. He did? 3 points in a poll is not statistically significant
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:47 PM by jackson_dem
We won't ever know who won the Democratic vote because the stupid rules allow rethugs and indies to vote.

This backs up what Taylor Marsh showed. Obama does far better with rethugs and indies than Democrats. That is where his national vote margin comes from.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #81
87. I don't see the margins of error for that poll.
It is possible that they sampled enough people to make a 3% difference statistically significant. At worst, he tied her. And yet, you would still argue that she's the stronger Democratic candidate, even though she soundly loses every other demographic?

It just doesn't make any sense.

What exactly ARE you arguing here?
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #87
97. 600,00 votes so far. They sampled enough of that?
There is never a margin of error listed for an exit poll. It is always low but you never have 0% error. 51-48 is not statistically significant.

She lost Wisconsin. This is more evidence that shows the influence non-Democrats are having in choosing the Democratic nominee.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #97
108. And why would we want to choose a Democratic nominee who can't win Independents?
Obama has shown that he can win Democrats. At the very least he tied her on that tonight. She has yet to show that she can win Independents.

Please tell me how that makes her a stronger candidate for the general election.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #81
88. Hillary would never win a GE. Good thing we probably won't have to find out.
:hi:
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #81
89. Tell that to Al Gore and John Kerry.
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 10:51 PM by Roland99
BTW, we're talking votes, not a phone poll.

But, go ahead and keep grasping for wet paper straws.


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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:44 PM
Response to Original message
77. THANKS FOR THE INFO! He beat her in nearly EVERY SINGLE DEMO!
:hi:
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trayfoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:47 PM
Response to Original message
83. And you think winning repubs is his appeal?
Not really......it is a campaign strategy used by both parties in open states to choose the weakest candidate on the opposing side. Drawing pubs is highly suspect to me. Don't take me wrong, I am not committed to either one - I've just worked in politics for a very long time, and I am NOT impressed by Obama's drawing of republican votes. In fact, it should really make people wonder why this is so!
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RestoreGore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #83
117. I agree...
It is then a false inflation of numbers that may come back to bite him on the butt if many of those Republicans only voted for him wanting to set it up to see McCain beat him. I know independents who are going to vote for McCain. So how many who voted in democratic primaries did so for that reason? I thought these were Democratic primaries... if so only democrats should bw allowed to vote in them.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
85. Democrat (63%) 48% 51%: Obama won the Democratic vote.
He beat Clinton 51-48 among Democratic voters. Your theory is shit.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #85
100. You asked the million people who voted?
51-48 has no statistical significance.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #100
107. Again you made me laugh!
You are on a roll tonight!

You are now arguing against the validity of the numbers you used in your OP.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
86.  I hate to break it to you, but he will beat her by more than 11 points
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:50 PM
Response to Original message
90. And Hillary loses among all groups.
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
98. So even if the
Repugs hadn't crossed over, Obama still would have won. :shrug:

Works for me.
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xultar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
99. remember the post about the duers rethug family voting in
the dem primary cuz they wanted Hillary to win the nom so she could lose the ge?

but now crossover is good. I don't get it. What has changed?
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Lone_Star_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:07 PM
Response to Reply #99
112. Crossover voting sucks if they're doing it for that reason.
At least that's my opinion. To be fair, of the 9% of crossover R-voters some of them may be simply disgusted with their parties choices though. Not all of them though, some are jerks trying to jack with the primary results.

It's not a very substantial margin really when you consider that Hillary has 28% of the 9% and Obama has 72% it becomes a non-factor in end result of the primary. Thankfully. It would just caused more bickering between the two sides supporters if it were close enough to have tossed the race one way or the other.
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
101. But Obama still won the Democratic vote.
Just like he has in almost every other caucus and primary that he has won. But having said that, we need those repukes and indies to win in November. So it's the best of both worlds.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #101
104. False. He has won 4 states without winning the Democratic vote
And his national popular vote margin comes from rethugs and independents.
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #104
113. No, true.
According to a quick glance at the NYT page that I am linking to, Obama has won in 18 states so far. So if he won four states without winning the Democratic vote, then he still won 14 states with the Democratic vote. Isn't 14 out of 18 most states?

As far as the national vote goes, I repeat, he needs votes from those groups to win in November.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/index.html
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
109. that bodes well for him in Texas :)
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:12 PM
Response to Original message
116. You don't get it do you? It's over. Take a good hard look at your
candidate. See who she is. See what she is made out of. She has no chance at all. Think of Hillary as another Gravel. Seriously.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:28 PM
Response to Original message
124. So, Obama won Democrats. Great!
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miceelf Donating Member (222 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
125. Next time someone complains
about what bullies Obama supporters are and how ingracious they are in victory, just pull this thread out. It's really telling. You are trying to spin a clear victory by obama into some kind of defeat, because he won independents IN ADDITION TO winning democrats.

In a primary. In a state with 6% African American population.

He won 56-40 among "very liberal" voters.



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RBInMaine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
126. Good ! It shows the cross-over appeal needed in the general.
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
128. Yeah!!! Blow out in the general!!
I can't wait for those debates!!
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
129. The sound you hear, is the worlds smallest violin, playing for you...
Edited on Tue Feb-19-08 11:39 PM by Endangered Specie
:nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity:

You've done nothing but prove Hillary can't beat Obama in ANY political spectrum.


You can whine, bitch, and moan, but that doesn't change the results, what category HAS Hillary won??
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Cheeseburger Walrus Donating Member (71 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
132. Sour grapes


make boring, bitter company. Support the nominee and be done with it.
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mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-19-08 11:58 PM
Response to Original message
136. If he gets the nod the Obama people will wonder where all the Republican support went, come November
Good post, jackson. Thanks for the stats. They are very revealing and something to be concerned about.
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HeraldSquare212 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #136
140. Whereas Hillary will wonder now. Yeah, that's a great strategy.
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Pushed To The Left Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:00 AM
Response to Original message
138. Some of those Republicans despise McCain
and may be willing to vote for Obama in the GE. Republican and Indepedent support is not a bad thing to have!
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