NBC HRC must win 65% to stay in the race

[grantcart]

[Colobo]

1. Not going to happen.

[tridim]

13. Not even close. She'll probably get no more than 40% in TX, OH and PA.

See you in Denver Barack! :)

[gateley]

2. 65% of what -- WI? HI? Texas and/or Ohio??? nt

[RunningFromCongress]

5. TX, OH, PA and her remaining winnable state (not WY, VT, etc..)

[gateley]

Thanks

:hi:

[Cha]

7. Zactly! 65% of what?

:)

[slick8790]

8. They say that since

Obama is most likely gonna win several states by large margins (HI, WY, VT) that she needs about 65% of the vote in the "big states" of OH and TX to mathematically have a delegate lead.

[THUNDER HANDS]

9. 65% of white women over the age of 50 who make less than $50,000 a year

it'll be tough, but if she can do that, she deserves the nomination.

[libertee]

3. No problem...there will be plenty of tongue trippin' by the O camp.

[Cha]

10. hilary's sittin' on her fucking

tongue right now.

[grantcart]

33. its shocking donna brazille: they should fire the speech writers

[fascisthunter]

4. 65% of What Remains?

[jefferson_dem]

6. 65% of what?

Remaining delegates? Pop vote in TX, OH?

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

16. 65% of delegates in TX, OH, AND PA n/t

[VolcanoJen]

11. Eh? Seriously?????

Na gon do it.

[NightWatcher]

12. 65% of the remaining delegates, I dont think that can happen

[LadyVT]

14. Neither candidate can win 2025 delegates at this point

So it's hard to understand these "must wins." It's going to come down to the superdelegates' judgment, and by then (months from now), much more information on Barack Obama will, of course, have surfaced.

[CATagious]

17. dream on. nm

[juajen]

15. Bullshit!

They're freakin' stupid! At this point he is only 50 delegates ahead and she has some campaigning to do, and Rezko's being tried and more and more glitter is falling off Obama. I don't know what the delegate split will be tonight, but, I'm assuming he will get around 15 more than she does, which will still only make him 65 ahead. I bet Huckleberry would love those numbers.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

20. He's 50 ahead including supers

Among pledged delegates, he was about 125 ahead before today, probably around 150 after today.
Hillary needs around 65% to catch up in pledged delegates. Makes sense to me.

[ORDem]

36. You need to rethink it, sorry. He's about 150 ahead in pledged

delegates, and that's what counts. Since the states are not WTA, there's always a split, and some states she is just not going to win, period. Taking all that into account she really does need 65% of the vote in the states that are competitive. I would argue, also, that very soon TX and OH are not going to be competitive for her, anyway.

:dem:

[Egalia]

18. Who listens to

the Nail Bill Clinton (NBC) channel?

[CorpGovActivist]

19. I like those odds.

:rofl:

:thumbsup:

[mckeown1128]

21. kick and rec.

If this is true she should drop out. It is NOT possible for her to do this. It isn't even possible with all of his momentum and support to do this. This settles it.

[GoldieAZ49]

22. She will be the Huckabee of the Democrats

the newscasters sounded sorry for her

[grantcart]

23. she already is

[ShadowLiberal]

24. 65% of OH & TX? I disagree

While I agree that at this point Hillary is going to have to win Ohio and Texas by at least 5% to save herself, I disagree that she'll need as big a victory as 65%. Heck a 10% victory margin would be huge for her.

[Crunchy Frog]

26. I don't think that small a margin would give her enough delegates.

[grantcart]

29. The reason that you need the higher percentages is that when delegates

are spread out proportionately in a congressional district if you get 51% or 63% you are going to get the same number of delegates. For example in a 4 delegate district if you get 51 or 60 percent they are still going to split the delegates 2-2 its only if you can get to 66% are they going to give you a 3-1 split. For that reason, for all practical purposes Hillary has lost the election and can now only do to Obama what Huckabee is doing to McCain.

[Quixote1818]

37. Well put. nt

[tammywammy]

25. 65% of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania!

:wow:

per Chuck Todd on MSNBC

[Skip Intro]

27. Neither side will have enough delegates to cinch the nomination before the convention.

Therefore, it goes to the convention.

That is the system.

[grantcart]

28. I got news for you in the next two weeks your are not only going to see

SD commit to Obama your going to see a bunch leave Hillary including alot of AA folks that jumped for Clinton way too soon. They are not going to let a wounded Clinton camp swing wildly and hurt their meal ticket which is now Obama.

[ORDem]

38. Yep, you got it right.

Those SDs are going to be thinking about their own skins and are not about to go down with the USS Hillary. You can only count on pledged delegates in this race and Obama's way ahead on that score. Plus, in TX, the way they apportion the delegates favors Obama. Even if it's close he's like to get more than half the delegates.

HRC supporters keep looking at the simplistic math of "clinching" the nomination. This ain't a basketball game folks, this is politics, the Dems need to get behind one nominee soon to have a chance at the GE, and most SDs know this (most are career politicians).

Besides, Hillary loses TX or OH, and the money is going to dry up faster than spit on a summer sidewalk.

She can't squeak by, it won't be enough.

:dem:

[JackORoses]

41. nope, the Superdelegates will move to the Pledged delegate leader after March 4

With them, Obama will have enough to clinch it.

This will not go to the Convention no matter how much Hillary kicks and screams.

[Johnny__Motown]

30. They said 58% of all remaining elected delegates, 65% in the states she is favored in

Still not going to happen


They also pointed out that as of now Obama needs less than 50% of all remaining delegates (pledged and super) to hit the "magic number".

[XemaSab]

40. The *ONLY* state she's broken 58% in is Arkansas (where she got 70%)

She got 57% in New York and 56% in Mass.

NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN.

[TheDeathadder]

31. It's Not Over Yet

You just might be surprised. You'll see. It's just about here.

[Johnny__Motown]

32. What's just about here?

[Laurab]

35. This poster is posting the same thing all over the board

That, combined with the nickname is scaring me a little...and he/she doesn't seem to respond to questions.

[TexasObserver]

34. She can't pull 45%

[ORDem]

39. kick n/t

:kick:

[CorpGovActivist]

42. I'm hearing 57% or 58% today...

... but the odds are still very much stacked against her, now.

- Dave

[Johnny__Motown]

43. 57% or 58% of all remaining delegates, 65% of those in the states where she is favored to win

It simply can't be done



It is like asking an athlete to suddenly break his/her own personal best over and over a over again just for a tie.

[CorpGovActivist]

46. Thanks for the clarification...

... I've been very busy today, talking with reporters in places like TX and OH.

BTW, is that a Duke logo?

- Dave

[FlyingSquirrel]

44. I heard a different analysis. Said that if she just won TX, OH and PA

with a simple majority, she'd still have an argument for her candidacy. Basic idea was, these are states we need to win in the GE.

Personally, I don't buy it. It's all about getting within a certain percentage. If HRC can get within about 40-45 delegates of BO, she can say that it's a statistically insignificant difference, use the undemocratic caucuses line, talk about the crossover voting etc. and argue that she'd be in the lead if they would count MI and FL. Basically she would have a strong argument for the superdelegates "voting their conscience".

If BO can win the pledged delegates to the tune of 100 more than HRC, the perception changes. So that's really what he's aiming at, somewhere between 75-100 or more. Then the argument is, even with MI and FL he'd be ahead, and the superdelegates should go with the majority. Again it'd be a strong argument, this time in his favor.

Nothing else really matters as far as mathematics goes, this is strictly a game of perception.

[Johnny__Motown]

45. DIfferent, She will try to argue that only big states matter if she wins all the big states, Will

still be far far behind in elected delegates