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So what the hell happened in Wisconsin?

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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:11 AM
Original message
So what the hell happened in Wisconsin?
Every poll showed at least a respectable finish for Clinton. What changed over the past 24 hours that led to an Obama blowout? I mean, I expected a tighter race and certainly not a 17 point victory for Obama. Were the polls just that bad, or did the negative campaigning really turn the tide in favor of Obama?

Also, stop the presses, ARG was closer to the Wisconsin results than all but one poll.

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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:12 AM
Response to Original message
1. Hillary went negative and late deciders went big for Obama.
Hillary miscalculated once again.
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #1
123. Also the youth turnout has gone from 4% in a primary to 27%
of the electorate.

That might have something to do with it. And since the youth vote is now LARGER than the senior citizen vote, especially on a very icy day, Hillary had better start courting Martians because there aren't enough Earthlings left for her to fool. All these youth read the Internet and so know the truth.

The Revolution WILL be televised. You're watching it.

HERE COME THE MILLENNIALS!!!
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #1
125. Not true. They split day-of deciders
That's what made the results so surprising. He only won those who decided the day of by 3 points. So I think the ground game had more to do with it than a late-breaking surge one way or the other.

Before we saw the results yesterday, I was expecting the opposite - that late deciders would go Clinton's way because of all the bad press Obama had been getting in the 24 hours before the primary.
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. Hillary went negative and the electorate did not like it. n/t
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gateley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:14 AM
Response to Original message
3. Hillary went negative. nt
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tinrobot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:56 AM
Response to Reply #3
66. Negative 17 points, or therabouts... n/t
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Obamaniac Donating Member (297 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 06:13 AM
Response to Reply #3
90. The whole Devon Patrick thing backfired...
...in a big time way.
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jgraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
4. I'm not sure, but I'm gonna go with 'Hillary went negative'
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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. LOL !!! - You Guys Are Killin Me, LOL !!!
:rofl::crazy::rofl:

:hi:
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #4
37. Wrong. She went -- oh, wait, nagative. Yes.
Plus, she sucks as a candidate, because a lot of Americans can see through her bullshit.

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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #37
101. CORRECT! Hillary Clinton went... neg-ative. Bye-Bye!
Obama! What is best in life?

"The open plains of Kansas, campaign aides by your side. And the wind in your hair."

WRONG!!!!! Hillary, what is best in life?

"Crush your enemies! See them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women!"
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
5. MN and WI are similar states. Obama got 2/3 in MN on Super Tuesday.
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 12:15 AM by Eric J in MN
I was predicting an Obama victory in WI ever since, regardless of the polls.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
6. The late deciders went overwhelming to Obama.
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:16 AM
Response to Original message
7. They rejected her negative tactics
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
8. Wild guess: Hillary went negative.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
10. Hillary went negative. Idiot.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #10
18. I'm an idiot? MEAN!
:spank:
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #18
24. LOL. Perhaps I should have said "idiots." Clinton, Penn, Wolfson.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:23 AM
Response to Reply #24
30. Oh, ok, yes, I agree.
:D
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Tom Joad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
11. Hillary went Stupid, and the people of Wisconsin did not like it.
i mean, like she made such a big deal of Obama "not debating" when in reality they have debated often. It's not like folks in Wis. can't watch TV and see the debate from out of state.
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
12. same day registration, college students and independents
Wisconsin.

Plus Obama had about 7 times as many branch offices in Wisconsin as did Hillary.

SHe must have assumed that by sewing up New Hampshire, that the rest would be downhill.

Now Obama will get it full blast from both Hillary and McCain and the side groups that support them.
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Emit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:34 AM
Response to Reply #12
49. I think yours is a good assessment
same day registration, college students and independents

record voter registration favors Obama
Same day registration does, too

Grassroots is key to turnout -- especially with young people to young people
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:18 AM
Response to Original message
13. they plagerized the polling data
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:18 AM
Response to Original message
14. People can see through the veil of flopsweat & nastiness
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:18 AM
Response to Original message
15. Is it possible that Hillary went negative and turned OFF the populace? I'm just guessing.
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:18 AM
Response to Original message
16. It was teh lutherans.
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 12:19 AM by JVS
Ask creekdog. We called this last week

Just like MN, IA, and ND; WI was no place for her to take on this ornery albeit quiet demographic
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #16
38. oops, I forgot NE, they got her there too
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foo_bar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:13 AM
Response to Reply #16
67. and that's the news from Lake Wobegon
"I'm happy to support your candidacy, which is so full of promise for our country," the best-selling author and humorist wrote in a letter declaring his support. "Seven years of a failed presidency is a depressing thing, and the country is pressing for a change and looking for someone with clear vision who is determined to break through the rhetorical logjam and find sensible ways to move our country forward. That's you, friend."
<...>
"And of course it will be exciting to have a president who can speak with grace and power to the American people," Keillor wrote.

Obama addressed a crowd of nearly 20,000 at the Target Center in downtown Minneapolis on Saturday. A poll by Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute released last week showed slightly behind rival Hillary Rodham Clinton, 40 percent to 33 percent.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hoJUZpXO9TXooyM1YV19c65M43LQD8UJ13K00

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pansypoo53219 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:24 AM
Response to Reply #16
68. ORNERY BUT QUIET?
i'm just quiet, cept for when returds are on teevee.

of course her calling plagiarism, meant more people haring obama's spech about just words. NOT SMART. very very stoopid.
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nemo137 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:56 AM
Response to Reply #16
75. So do we have any numbers on how LCMS and ELCA split?
Or was this a pan-Lutheran event?
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 02:09 AM
Response to Reply #75
76. Well let's see. MO only went barely for Obama, so he might be getting their support.
On a more personal level
Mom -ELCA (talked to her tonight, she used to back Clinton when she appeared inevitable, tonight said she's glad Obama is winning, doesn't like her IWR vote)
A friend of mine - LCMS (Voted for Obama. Doesn't like Hillary, wanted to see fresh faces in power, was considering Huckabee (we have open primaries and this guy is an independent))
Me- LCMS (I like Obama. I think he is more likely to bring peace. I also see a continuation of the 90's battles around the Clintons to be less than productive. I'll vote for him in my primary)
I don't know how the guy at work-LCMS voted.

It's hard to get a bigger sample size, people don't often volunteer the info (my friend probably only loosed his lips because he was only baptized 2 years ago, so he's new to the whole keeping quiet routine). I must say that I am surprised by the lack of political stickers on the cars in the church parking-lot.
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 05:51 AM
Response to Reply #75
84. Nationally, LCMS went republican 1,000,973 to 2
JVS and I being the two. :hi:
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 06:23 AM
Response to Reply #84
91. that's 3. My friend also tends Democratic
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #91
124. wow an increase of 50%
i thought i sensed something different in church.

maybe they can interview some, oops, all the Democrats in the LCMS on Issues, Etc.

:applause:
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:30 AM
Response to Reply #75
103. There are Missouri Synod Democrats?
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 08:34 AM by Leopolds Ghost
I thought even black Missouri Synod folks voted Republican... part of the
doctrine or something.

(Caveat: I grew up in back of a black Missouri Synod church when my mom
was an organist there, but I didn't know anything about their politics.)
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #103
130. Yes, I was told it's not necessarily a sin to vote Democratic and be LCMS
Waves of ambivalent relief swept over me. :eyes:
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 05:53 AM
Response to Reply #16
85. Obama volunteers were dispatched throughout the states
bringing donuts to Lutheran coffee hours and potato salad to their luncheons.

those Lutherans like their comfort food. :hi:
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Tesha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 07:47 AM
Response to Reply #85
92. Is there, as a result, a sudden shortage of condensed Cream of Mushroom soup? (NT)
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #92
94. I guess I use a different recipe
:rofl: :hi:

potatoes
mayo
tomatoes
sliced olives
red onion
salt/pepper

but i guess that's a California recipe.

:pals:
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myrna minx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #94
105. That's such an exotic recipe that I'm sure it evokes a "that's diff'ernt" reaction
from the quilters in the church basement. :rofl:
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #105
107. oh yes, and I know because I've brought it to church luncheons
so it will be sitting on a table with 7 other potato salads (and I always make 5 lbs of it). people always go, "tomatoes?", but then by the end of the luncheon it is all gone.

it was my friend's grandmother's recipe. she was italian and cooked for the priests.
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myrna minx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:38 AM
Response to Reply #85
104. He must have brought hot dish and weak coffee to the potluck in the church
basement. :hi:
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #104
109. haha, i thought Lutherans liked strong coffee
it's not as if church wakes one up. :rofl:

:pals:
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #109
111. My grandparents drank coffee all day.
The first pot in the morning was very strong. But since they kept putting fresh water through the grounds, by evening it was almost decaf.
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myrna minx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #109
117. The coffee at my Mom's ELCA church in Janesville
had the weakest coffee that you can actually see through it. Ha. I think the only reason we stand during the Nicaean creed is to bring feeling back into the legs. :rofl: :hi:
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #117
118. first they weaken the coffee
next is the liturgy!

oops, I'm bad...this is for me ----->:spank:

:pals:
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #118
127. First they weaken the coffee, then the confessional statements of Concordia by not being "quia",...
then they weaken the law, which in turns weakens the gospel. Then we all end up in hell.

Liturgy is a matter of freedom. As long as it provides a framework for proper administration of the word and sacraments, it's fine. That having been said, the tried is generally preferred to the untested.
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myrna minx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #118
129. LoL. I won't tell anyone how bad you are.
:rofl: Here, I made some lemon bars for coffee hour. Or you can have some of Mrs. Kalland's home made lefse.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 06:01 AM
Response to Reply #16
88. Oh, noes
I forgot the Lutherans!
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RBInMaine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:18 AM
Response to Original message
17. Obama surge, energy, and I's and R's
Perfect storm for Hillary. Obama won "CHANGE" voters, I's and cross-over R's who are disaffected but don't like Hillary (bodes well for the general election - gotta have I's and some moderate R's cross-overs), also cut well into Hillary's base.
Hillary's negative attacks also may have backfired in that they tend to reinforce what people already don't like about her. From what I understand though, the actual DEM voters split much closer, so it's far from over. Now Obama needs to clean up the Deval Patrick shit once and for all,
get the Michelle gaffe clarified and put to bed, re-tool both their stump speeches and tactics, and get ready for the coming brawl. His message has been good though in that they have added many more policy specifics and more working class themes and events to their program.
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MannyGoldstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:19 AM
Response to Original message
19. ARG Was Closer?
I thought they had Clinton up by 10 or something like that just a few days ago. Maybe I'm confused. Do you have a link?
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #19
28. There's this from Dec 11, 2007..
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #19
32. They released a poll yesterday showing Obama up 10.
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HeraldSquare212 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:19 AM
Response to Original message
20. I'm guessig the polls assumed her voters would remain her voters
so when they modeled turnout, she was closer. I guess they'll all start reworking their models for the next races - look for TX and OH to take big turns toward Obama.
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greguganus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
21. Hillary went anti-positive. n/t
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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #21
39. ROFL !!! - I Like That !!!
Can one be, anti-positive???

-1 + 1 = 0

Crap... I was never good at math!

:hi:
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TheDoorbellRang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:49 AM
Response to Reply #21
61. By a strange quark of fate, her negative charges won an electron.
:think:
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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #61
64. Very Good !!!
:hi:
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Tesha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 07:49 AM
Response to Reply #61
93. If those puns don't kill you, you must lead a charmed life!
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 07:51 AM by Tesha
You think they put you on top? Well I think you'd
better get down and think of a horse of a different
color before you hit bottom!

Tesha

(I have this strange feeling I missed one!)
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WritingIsMyReligion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:04 AM
Response to Reply #93
95. "Strange."
Poor strange quirk. Nobody wants it.

:evilgrin:

Oh, wait, no--was "different" supposed to be that quark?

Whatever.

:rofl:
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Tesha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #95
98. (Spoiler!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quark

> There are six different types of quark, usually known as flavors: up, down, charm, strange, top, and bottom.
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WritingIsMyReligion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #98
99. I love quarks.
:rofl:
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TheDoorbellRang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #93
122. How very quarky of you.
(I admit I had to read your spoiler below):D

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
22. They didn't like
wolfson's sweater? :evilgrin:
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NoBorders Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
23. Hillary went positive
And late deciders didn't like it.

Just thought I'd be contrarian.
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Jeff In Milwaukee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 06:19 PM
Response to Reply #23
131. Humor-Monger
nt
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samdogmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
25. Okay--I'm an Obama supporter, but what are you talking about?
There were lots of polls. The last poll that I read about had Hillary in the lead. Who knows how these things are figured? At any rate--it's over. Bareck won. There's no point in gloating. Let's just move on and be big about this!

I want all of us to come together at some point and the after the fact gloating DOES NOT HELP! Trust me!
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #25
35. Maybe you misread the tone of my post. It isn't gloating.
It's a real question that I think needs to be answered. If it's negative campaigning, then Clinton better rethink her strategy.
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samdogmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #35
47. Okay! Whatever! But the many Hillary fans on DU aren't going to be amused!
Me? I just want peace--no gloating, no ANYTHING! So, I opt for the least offensive post possible! I know it's big when Barack wins a state in a big way--celebrate all you want! More power to you! And, that's all I have to say!
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GoldieAZ49 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:35 AM
Response to Reply #25
51. being happy that phony attack ads didn't work is gloating??
your kidding right?

When Hillary says:
all he offers is 'just words'
then whines that he won't 'debate' her (which by the way, debates are 'just words')
then makes plagiarism charges the day before the election,
and that her lifting text from other politicians doesn't count because she isn't using 'just words' (which by the way she is, just not effectively)

and the VOTERS REJECT HER and her tactics....hell that is cause for CELEBRATION

:toast: to Obama and all of his supporters that are not ashamed to support a man that has done his best to stay out of the mud.
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samdogmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #51
57. No--I'm REALLY HAPPY THAT PROVED TRUE!
But, you know how divided this board has been over the past few weeks. This loss has to really hurt a major portion of our board. (There are a lot of Hillary supporters here.) I'm thinking of their feelings and trying hard not to be an inconsiderate jerk.
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GoldieAZ49 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:48 AM
Response to Reply #57
60. Then they shouldn't perpetuate the dirty politics here and start 50 threads
spamming the whole board.

Obama supporters do not have to be silent in fear of offending the offensive.

Think what they would do and say if Hillary won...yeah, thats pretty isn't it.

I think it has been very tame here tonight.

Watch what the Hillary camp does next, I think it will start after the debate on Thursday, it is going to get worse than the past week.

I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.
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RamboLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:22 AM
Response to Original message
26. Exit Polls showed 53% thought Clinton attacks unfair
on Obama - HRC's campaign people especially people like Penn and Wolfson are her worst enemies. And of course letting the Big Dog off the porch.
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:22 AM
Response to Original message
27. I'll take Hillary went negative for 17 (%) Alec
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adabfree Donating Member (802 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:24 AM
Response to Reply #27
33. Deal or No Deal...I say Deal
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apocalypsehow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
29. Ugly, vicious tactics tend to backfire among progressives.
Which leads me to believe that many of the ugly, vicious posts in this forum by the anti-Obama crowd are not the work of progressives - or even Democrats. And yes I mean the "long-timers," too.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
31. Yes the negativity was a big factor! I know.
I live here in Wisconsin. We like "nice" and we like "fair" and we take a very dim view of someone who does not play fair. Her campaign's accusations were so lame, made so little sense that they were not only very unfair, but were actually insulting to us as voters. They expected us to actually believe all the crap they were shoveling.

She did it to herself. She's turned really ugly, and it's turned Wisconsin off.
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #31
42. I have to give it to the writer from The Nation who lives in Wisconsin. He predicted this on AA
He said the voters there don't really vote Democrat or Republican or on one issue. They vote for the person they like. He said you would see many voters with a George Bush sign in their yard right beside a Russ Feingold on.

And he said bottom line it would be a blow out. Because the Democrats and Republicans in the state just like Obama better than all the rest of the candidates. And it showed.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #42
43. that was John Nichols.
I heard him too--on Rachel's show.
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Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:24 AM
Response to Original message
34. I'm sensing something about negativity being a factor....
:shrug:
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workinclasszero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:25 AM
Response to Original message
36. People are sick and tired of dirty politics and in the gutter campaigns
Once again Hillary proves how terribly out of touch she is with the American public.

The Clinton camp must stop the hate. It will destroy whatever legacy Hillary and Bill Clinton have, and it will lose her an election as well.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
40. A full-on rout happened ... upside the head.
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Azathoth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
41. The Clinton campaign is starting to remind people of Dubya's campaigns
And that does not play well among progressives.
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caligirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #41
55. bingo, dems are really keen on this after the firestorm of Rove and Bush. Any
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 12:39 AM by caligirl
reminder and its bad news for the idiot who went negative. Too recent in memory, lots of hate for repugs tactics.
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madrchsod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:30 AM
Response to Original message
44. she did`t like the beer and she thought the dells were tacky
...worse who beat the packers this year?
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #44
52. I don't know about that stuff, but I'll comment on the news coverage
On Monday we saw the clips of her "impromptu" stops at various smaller places--her last ditch effort here. There were a lot of the "big happy smile with eyebrows raised" shots, with her surrounded by her fans (mostly women) all with the big grins, the Lt. Gov., a woman at her side the whole time. It just looked so phony--she overplayed it.

Obama was like the good student who did his homework--had the ground organization, the rapid response team, and he covered the state with 12 appearances. He was ready for his exam.

Hillary was like the poor student who studied a little, then blew it off for a while, then came back to cram the night before. I guess her exam score showed how prepared she was.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 02:27 AM
Response to Reply #52
78. Thanks for that ginny, it's always
good to hear first hand stories from instaters. :)

Was there any of the clintons negative talk on Obama on local shows that you know of?
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #78
119. not that I noticed.
I watch mostly cable news, but do watch the local half hour too--mostly for the weather. Didn't see them repeating any negative attacks in any great detail. Conservative radio was bad--be we all know where they are coming from.
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:30 AM
Response to Original message
45. The citizens decided, en masse, to not matter.
;)

In terms of the polls, however, the difference you're seeing is due to whether polls took into consideration young voters, the open primary and on-the-spot registration. That's just tough to nail down.
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:31 AM
Response to Original message
46. Same Day Registration State, they don't poll people who are not registered voters
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:33 AM
Response to Original message
48. Did Hillary go negative?
That might've done it.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:34 AM
Response to Original message
50. What happened is voters got a chance to hear both and rejected her tired old themes and methods.
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milkyway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
53. The late deciders did NOT go big to Obama. He won by only a few points.
Last 3 days (12%): Obama 53-47

Last day (9%): Obama 51-48

Last week (30%): 58-42

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#WIDEM

Those that decided in the last three days brought down Barack's winning margin. The last week simply reflects the overall vote.

This does not necessarily mean, however, that the reason for the late movement to Hillary was because of her going negative. The sample size of these late deciders is very small, so it must have a very large margin of error.

Addressing the OP, what has happened is that for a couple of weeks Hillary and Obama were stuck on a 50/50 equilibrium, with each having their demographic strongholds. But Hillary's base has crumbled. She only won the white female vote 52-47.

Perhaps even more significantly, she lost the under $50K vote, 54-44. This affirms the results of the Potomac primaries. Without trying to stereotype large segments of voters, these voters tend to be more low-information voters. Hillary has been a major national figure for sixteen years, while many people are just getting to know Barack. The nation as a whole is becoming more comfortable with the notion of a President Obama, and it has reached a clear decision.

The polls seem to be having a difficult time grasping the enormous numbers of new voters Barack is bringing to the polls. It seems to me that they constantly underestimate the projected makeup of the electorate. Past models don't work, and they seem to always be measuring where the Obama wave was rather than where it will be on voting day.
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Hill_YesWeWill Donating Member (652 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:38 AM
Response to Original message
54. Obama Went Positive, like elsewhere, and Clinton's negativity looks petty in comparison! nt
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:41 AM
Response to Original message
56. Wolfson was let loose to deride Obama's speech strategies while his
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 12:51 AM by Old Crusoe
candidate was abandoned to the sharks.

Why he was hired in the first place remains a mystery to me and if he is retained after this blowout it will be stupefying.
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jasmine621 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:43 AM
Response to Original message
58. In a word or two. Independents and crossovers. nt
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:47 AM
Response to Original message
59. It's all Howard Dean's fault! No, it's Chris Matthews' fault! No, it was a caucus! No, it was a...
LANDSLIDE!!!!!!

:cheers:


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riverwalker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:51 AM
Response to Original message
62. Instant Karma
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 12:53 AM by riverwalker
the electorate has changed. Clintons using the old rulebook. That shit doesn't work anymore and they are finding out the hard way. Then it was "It's the economy, stupid" Now: It's the electorate, stupid.
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stillrockin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:52 AM
Response to Original message
63. People want CHANGE!
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OneSelf Donating Member (167 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 12:55 AM
Response to Original message
65. Ahhhh!
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Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #65
69. LOL! Awesome.
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Yupster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #65
121. I really LOL'ed too
good shot.
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Starry Messenger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #65
128. that's great!
I'm still laughing! Thanks!
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rbking Donating Member (520 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
70. As a Wisconsinite...
I can't really say what went wrong in the polls, but here in west central Wisconsin there was a lot of oddly quiet support for Obama among the white, blue collar, factory workers. People that I thought would never vote for a democrat were not only voting for one, they picked the (politically incorrect term here) black guy. There is a real strong feeling here that Hillary is too much of a hawk. There are a lot of people around these parts, where we have buried far too many, that Hillary will attack Iran if Bush doesn't. Another strong sentiment running against Sen. Clinton here is that she keeps harping on her willingness and eagerness to fight the republicans. There seems to be a lot of people around here that prefer not to poke a stick in the eye of the republicans by electing Sen. Clinton. Finally, there is a great deal of desire, as near as I can tell, to move past the Bush, Clinton, Bush thing. I've heard a lot of people, and not just young ones, say that you can't get change by electing the same damn people all the time. In this sense Sen. Obama's "inexperience" is actually working in his favor.
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Dammit Ann Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #70
77. WELL SAID.
in the mid south, red state, i hear a lot of the same sentiment.
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LeftHander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #70
115. Ding ding ding! Spot on...from another Wisconsinite.
I voted in the 7 district in Milwaukee. This is a African American section of town. The turnout was brisk and I have too talked to republicans who when push comes to shove cannot go with McCain. there is quiet resignation that the GOP had it's chance and screwed up. Many i 2004 said they would vote Bush in to see if he could finish the job. in Iraq. He didn't and the GOP has no intention of doing so. So they are not going to vote Republican this year.

The people have finally realized that the GOP is the wrong direction for America.
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:28 AM
Response to Original message
71. Hillary tried out the "Anti-hope" campaign and it's killer. McCain will try the same
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pointsoflight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:29 AM
Response to Original message
72. It's the superior ground game
Obama has been consistently outperforming the polls over the last few weeks.
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Caria Donating Member (241 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:34 AM
Response to Original message
73. Going negative
just reinforced what Wisconsinites already think about the people who live on the East Coast.

It also shows that her staff & advisers didn't understand that people in that part of the country would interpret the negative stuff as last-ditch desperation on Clinton's part.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:38 AM
Response to Original message
74. A great candidate and some Blowback?
:shrug:
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LadyVT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 02:51 AM
Response to Original message
79. The Weather prevented older voters from getting out
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 02:52 AM
Response to Reply #79
80. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 05:14 AM
Response to Reply #80
81. Great post. Maybe you should post it as an OP!
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 05:14 AM
Response to Reply #80
82. Great post. Maybe you should post it as an OP!
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 05:16 AM
Response to Reply #79
83. Yup, the numbers could have easily been reversed if only 36% of the population hadn't been snowed in
Because we know that every one of them would have voted for Hillary.
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WritingIsMyReligion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #79
96. Ehh....They're Wisconsinites.
In Maine, at least, weather isn't really a deterrent when it comes to elections, et. al., and I would think Wisconsin would be at least as hardy.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #79
113. That's a joke. Historically. older voters are the most reliable, rain or shine.
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 05:54 AM
Response to Original message
86. They went with the candidate who said he needed their votes to win the nomination
Instead of the candidate that didn't need them.

:shrug:
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IamyourTVandIownyou Donating Member (446 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 06:01 AM
Response to Original message
87. Polls are corrupt and meant to sway the public.
A new law should be passed wherein if a pollster's poll is wrong by more than it margin or error, the company is banned from further polling, for the rest of the election.

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michreject Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 06:10 AM
Response to Original message
89. What I heard on the TV
was, White, Catholic males.
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workinclasszero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:08 AM
Response to Original message
97. What happened in Wisconsin?
Simple.

Blowback!

Go ahead and stay in the mudpit Hillary, its working so well for you!:evilgrin::rofl::rofl::rofl:
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intotheforest689 Donating Member (5 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:21 AM
Response to Original message
100. Hillary is Bills Second Choice, why should she be out first choice?
It makes me SO happy that Hillary lost last night, her negative attacks and petty misbehavior have come back to destroy her.
Plus, who wants to look at Hillary's mullet for 4 years?
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Independent-Voter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:25 AM
Response to Original message
102. HRC's a shrill, pandering pain in the ass. The more people meet her, the more they dislike her
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 08:34 AM by Independent-Voter
it's that simple. She's corrosive as hell, and judging from the exit polls, the ONLY folks that are still voting for her are post-menopausal white women. Every other group, including the latinos, has seen through her bullshit.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:42 AM
Response to Original message
106. people lie to pollsters & they hate negative ads.. n/t
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catgirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
108. Hillary's WORDS

The more she talks, the less people like her.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
110. Great thread.
K & R :thumbsup:
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goddess40 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
112. Lots of republican cross overs
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 09:22 AM by goddess40
Some were pushing for repukes to vote Clinton but most voted for Obama. We have a stupid open primary so it's legal, although not ethical, to cross over and vote for a party different then your own.

Of the voters here in Wausau, a fairly conservative city, 69% of the voters voted for a democrat, that shows significant crossover. I know that many repukes don't vote in primaries because they will vote for who ever the the front man will be for the republican elite but these numbers are really skewed.

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LeftHander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 09:20 AM
Response to Reply #112
114. I don't think there was that much crossover voting....
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 09:28 AM by LeftHander
If there was, those that voted do actually like Obama and voted for him over McCain or Clinton.

Most conservatives in Wisconsin respect the primaries and I doubt most would crossover. They simply don't like John McCain and people are sick of the GOP.
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goddess40 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 09:26 AM
Response to Reply #114
116. When their leaders are bragging about it they're doing it in big numbers
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 09:27 AM by goddess40
Maybe not huge numbers but enough for it to be noticeable. Because they weren't well organized they ended up splitting the the republican for democrat votes between Clinton and Obama. They couldn't decide who was the bigger threat to Grandpa which is good news to me.


http://www.wausaudailyherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080220/WDH0101/802200581/1581/WDHnews
With the Republican race winding down, Kevin Hermening, former chairman of the Republican Party of Marathon County, said he and other Republicans voted for Clinton, believing that Obama would be a tougher opponent for McCain.


Edit: don't let the word former fool you he is still a very active force in the republican party.
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backscatter712 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
120. Hillary's negative attacks boomeranged.
Edited on Wed Feb-20-08 10:40 AM by backscatter712
She got nasty, Obama responded with his quick-response team to put the record straight and use the "kill her with kindness" strategy, and the negative attacks backfired on her.
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sloppyjoe25s Donating Member (664 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-20-08 01:48 PM
Response to Original message
126. Simple Answer: The better candidate won.
I love it when we get easy questions! :)
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