What would happen if Obama wins by a landslide in Texas?

[BluegrassDem]

As far as delegate wise? Isn't Texas the 2nd largest delegate prize? What happens if Obama wins Texas by a healthy margin...say 10% or more? I wonder what that would do the race. I would love to see Obama build up a pledged delegate of a few hundred to thwart any sneaky MI and FL moves by Hilldebeest.

[TeamJordan23]

1. I think any win or even close losses in either Ohio or Texas will end it for Hillary. nm

[lapfog_1]

2. According to the numbers guy on MSNBC

Hillary has to win the remaining contests where she is expected to be competitive (that would be TX, OH, and Pennsylvania) by 65% just to get enough pledged delegates to TIE Obama at this point. I think they were assuming Obama wins 55/45 or 60/40 in the other contests, many of which Hillary has even campaigned in.

65 percent of the delegates from TX, OH, and PA.

Ain't gonna happen.

But if she wins by 55/45, and with the majority of the supers (like 70 percent), she could still tie it up or even be ahead. This part is what I figured, not MSNBC... so I could be off on the math... mostly because I don't know what the hell I'm doing.

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. The math doesn't matter too much as far as winning the nomination outright

at this point. It's about setting expectations for what the Superdelegates should do. Hillary's saying if she comes within 30-50 delegates, they should vote their conscience because it's essentially a tie. Barack's saying if he wins by 100 then it's a clear lead and the Supers should side with him.

So essentially I guess HRC and BO actually agree on this? It seems that way, although I'm sure Barack might change his tune if Hillary does catch up to within 30-50.

[blogslut]

3. Delegate-wise, I have no idea

As far as what it will mean on a cultural level: An Obama primary win in Texas might shift a tectonic plate or two.

[catagory5]

4. That would end the Nom....

It would essentially wrap this up instead of drawing it out until the convention. If it goes to the convention Clinton will get the Nom even if she is behind in Pledged by 200. They still have to much clout and favors for it not to work out in their favor. A big win in either Ohio or TX would probably stop that though.

[grantcart]

5. its over look at this something big is happening in TX

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4675112

[TexasObserver]

7. Obama will win Texas, by 5-15 points. He will win the delegate race by even more.

Don't know that it will be a landslide, because Hillary should get 40% of the popular vote as a minimum, just based upon the operative demos and expected turnouts in those demos. Because of proportional rules for delegates, before 126 are selected by certain allocations per state senate district, of which there are 31, and because another 42 won't be chosen until June at state convention, the delegate race is not going to yield a big number lead for Obama even with a big win.

If he gets hot, which he could, he might win 57%-42% on the popular, and he might pick up 75-80 of that first 126 delegates.

The popular vote is what will determine whether Hillary is perceived as done or not. If he wins Texas by over 5%, she's definitely finished, because the public perception will be far too great for her to overcome it.

[misanthrope]

8. Nothing...

...Hillary will take this to the convention. She has already painted that scenario several times.

[Kahuna]

10. She is blowing hot air. The DNC will put the nails in her coffin way before then. nt

[Political Heretic]

9. 65% is the magic number

Hillary has to win TX, OH and PA by 65% to have a chance at overtaking Obama in pledged delegates.

Obama would have to win everything at 65% to reach the magic nomination number.

Neither is likely.