The Debates now are important for both Obama and Clinton

[Tom Rinaldo]

For Hillary Clinton, the importance of the two one on one debates she is about to have with Barack Obama is critical and obvious. Hillary Clinton just finished a nightmare two weeks. It was expected to be bad for her going into them but it has been worse than expected. Clinton always knew Obama would keep a real momentum roll going through Hawaii, but she hoped to keep the losses much closer, at least in one or two states. These results leave her campaign seriously wounded, but the schedule for the next two weeks, at least and at last, gives her a chance to "reboot" and realign.

The upcoming debates are a blessing for Hillary because they provide her with two important "contests" that are immune to Obama's momentum; because no one will literally be voting in them. As it currently stands there is a temptation for voters to go with Obama not only for the usual reason of preferring him to an opponent, but also to help "get this thing over with" and fall in behind our likely nominee. That desire is a part of how Obama's momentum from his recent string of victories is helping him; it builds his own "inevitability factor".

But the Obama/Clinton debates provide a literal campaign "cooling off period" from voting, where voters will again simply be comparing the strengths and weaknesses of Obama and Clinton without going into any polling booths while doing so. The debates give Hillary her last best chance to wipe the recent slate clean before the looming big primaries in Ohio and Texas. If Hillary does well enough debating Obama, that can alter perceptions about Obama's increasingly presumed "inevitability, with time enough left for those new perceptions to take root on the ground in Texas and Ohio for Hillary.

But these debates are critical to Barack Obama also, in his case more so in regards to his chances in November than his chances in March. They provide Obama with perhaps his last best opportunity to dramatically enhance his own stature and gravitas prior to taking on McCain as our nominee, assuming Obama wins the nomination. Sharing a stage alone with Hillary Clinton twice, and holding his own unscripted while doing so, can help Obama prepare for some negative heat that unavoidably will be coming his way regarding an "experience gap" with John McCain. Since most voters view Hillary Clinton by far as the more experienced of our Democratic candidates, she becomes the ideal sparring partner for Barack Obama now. If Obama comes across as convincingly competent against Clinton in the coming head to head debates, he will leave them looking much more "Presidential" in the eyes of many Americans.

John McCain will himself debate our Democratic nominee three times, and those debates will be critically important in determining which Party takes the White House in November. We already know how McCain plans to attack Obama in the General Election; he will come after him on experience, he will come after him on his readiness to be Commander in Chief. If Barack Obama does not hold his own against Hillary Clinton on those matters in the upcoming debates, probably he shouldn't be our nominee. If on the other hand Obama does well in that regard, he will cross a critical perceptional threshold, preparing and bolstering him for upcoming conflict with John McCain.

[RummyTheDummy]

1. This race is over.

But your larger point about the debates is very astute. I hope the Obama campaign feels the same way.

[Emit]

2. I hope they're giving him lots of debate training

grilling him and all.

Debate is his weaker side, IMHO. Although, he's improved since the earlier ones. One on one her tends to do better because his responses are long and thoughtful.

Jeesh, the pressure these two candidates are enduring must be absolutely incredible, I can imagine.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. Obviously I disagree

But you knew that from my OP.

This is an interesting virtually unreported story from tonight, the Washington State Primary results - including the Democratic results. Note that over a half million Democrats voted in Washington State's primary, at least 250% the number who participated in the Washington State Caucus, and Clinton finished FAR closer in the primar - losing by only 3%, than she did in the Washington Caucus. And that's not simpley because Democrats didn't bother to participate because no delegates were awarded, over 135,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans. The CNN and New York Times web sites aren't even listing the Democratic results, I had to find a Washington State Government site to get the final results:

President - Democratic Party
Federal (Statewide)
Last updated on 2/20 12:27 AM
Candidate Votes Votes %
Joe Biden Democrat

1,447 0.28 %
Hillary Clinton Democrat

240,394 46.93 %
Christopher J. Dodd Democrat

473 0.09 %
John Edwards Democrat

8,999 1.76 %
Mike Gravel Democrat

787 0.15 %
Dennis J. Kucinich Democrat

2,766 0.54 %
Barack Obama Democrat

255,918 49.96 %
Bill Richardson Democrat

1,473 0.29 %

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Votes 512,257 100%
President - Republican Party
Federal (Statewide)
Last updated on 2/20 12:27 AM
Candidate Votes Votes %
Rudy Giuliani Republican

3,864 1.03 %
Mike Huckabee Republican

80,351 21.36 %
Duncan Hunter Republican

663 0.18 %
Alan Keyes Republican

1,491 0.40 %
John McCain Republican

183,702 48.84 %
Ron Paul Republican

27,740 7.38 %
Mitt Romney Republican

75,147 19.98 %
Fred Thompson Republican

3,155 0.84 %

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Votes 376,113 100%

http://vote.wa.gov/elections/wei/results.aspx

[mtnsnake]

20. Not yet. There is still a slight chance that Obama can pull this thing out

although I don't think Hillary is going to make it easy for him.

[NastyRiffraff]

3. Obama should welcome debates with Hillary

They're not his strong point, and they'll give him a chance to hone what skills he does have. He really needs to be more focussed on issues; Hope and Change won't work with McCain.

Luckily, McCain himself isn't that good a debater...he can get some zingers in, but he's not that strong. Still, he'll attack Obama on experience; I would if I were him. Obama can't make any rookie mistakes there.

[johnnydrama]

10. Hope & change will work against McCain

The difference between Obama & McCain on the change issue is much much bigger than it is vs Hillary.

McCain is 0 change, George Bush's 3rd term. Obama can hit him on change all day.

[Eurobabe]

12. I tend to agree with you

Hillary is a much better debater. I will give her that. But as mentioned, McLame is positively awful. Maybe he will be borrowing Jr.'s earpiece?

[earthlover]

16. McCain would make an issue of experience with Hillary too!

The problem is, with Hillary, she has based much of her campaign on experience and doesn't have many more arrows in her quiver. McCain trumps Hillary on experience, and he has lots of Hillary quotes to rub it in on this issue.

Obama's message is derailing Hillary's experience campaign. I suspect he will be able to use it to derail McCain's Old Timer Express too.

[John Q. Citizen]

4. Yes, the race is over. And McCain is going to rerun the Hillary campaign

against Obama, so Obama might as well tune up.

[Emit]

5. McCain will likely take it further

Wonder if he'll accuse Obama of fathering an illegitimate white child? :sarcasm:

Seriously, though, who knows what McCain himself will pull, but the wacko Repubs will do what they've already started doing -- Obama's a Muslim, Obama is the anti-Christ, Obama's cousin in Kenya (opposition leader Raila Odinga) wants to implement sharia law and Obama will do the same in the US, etc.

It'll get nasty and it'll be interesting to see how far McCain will go with it. One of McCain's advisors, McKennan, has already announced that if Obama gets the nomination, he'll sit out on the sidelines because he likes Obama and doesn't want to be part of a slime campaign against Obama -- that's pretty telling as to what they might have in store.

[Window]

8. ..

Peace:thumbsup:

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Oddly, McCain starting to campaign against Obama now

which is what he openly signalled that he is doing in his victory speech, may allow Hillary Clinton to refrain from going hard negative against Obama herself before TX and OH vote. If the media starts actively covering McCain's attacks on Obama, Clinton can concentrate on selling her own strengths more while addressing Obama's weknesses less overtly.

[earthlover]

17. McCain attacking Obama plays to Obama's strengths....

For one, it gives him recognition as the front runner, and demotes Hillary to being not worthy of mention.

Secondly, Obama can now go after McCain with a vengeance. So he won't have to go after Hillary so much. By ruthlessly attacking the Republican nominee, he will LOOK like our nominee and will be able use that to his advantage.

As to the debates, Hillary needs them more than Obama. The last debate between Hillary and Obama was basically a love fest. Neither really attacked the other at all. This time, Hillary desperately needs two debate wins, draws will not do for her. Obama had better be prepared for some dirt to be thrown and some hard punching. He needs to anticipate what she will say (should be predictable) and find comebacks that do not sound defensive and keep him looking above the fray. At this point, it really is Obama's to lose and so are the debates.

Hillary is a strong debater. Her problem, in my view, is that she has not been able to connect personally. Being a policy wonk is not enough. The seeds of her problem have been planted months ago when she didn't develop a theme for her campaign that gives much of a positive reason to believe in her. In it to win, ready on day one, 35 years....these are all about Hillary. Obama has been much more skilled in making the race seem more about America and the American people than him.

[Sapphocrat]

6. Tom, I respect you like nobody's business.

But it's over.

It's over.

[Political Heretic]

11. I don't believe the debates are important at all now.

All Obama has to do is smile.

Hillary's choices are either:

-- Attack Obama, in which case with a strong and growing momentum, all he has to do is pivot and bridge -- meaning saying in response to any attack, "what I'm here to talk about to night is..... (insert message here)" and ignore it. In which case, she just looks desperate.

-- Return to trying to sell herself. Unfortunately, she's been selling herself and apparently a large portion of the electorate has evaluated and passed on what she's offering.

Yes I'm an Obama supporter, NO this is not intended as a slam. I just think that she is in a lose / lose place in the Debates where she is the one that needs something to happen, but basically all Obama needs to do is nod and smile to not have the debates negatively affect him.

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. It's not that simple for him

The McCain campaign will now be gunning to paint Obama as a light weight. They will try to do to him what Bush Senior did to Dukakis; define him negatively to the public, make him seem unfit to lead our nation. As a relatively new figure to national politics, Obama is more at risk of having opponents define him for the public than someone with a long established national political image.

Obama now believes he will likely be our nominee, so like McCain, he will be thinking about November. If Barack Obama avoids discussing issues with specifics in his debates with Clinton, if he seems incapable of responding effectively to her probes and challenges, he will further reenforce the line of attack that McCain will be advancing against him. America will be watching Obama as a potential President during his debates with Clinton. Presidents don't duck hard issues, or at least that is the image of a President that John McCain will be selling that Obama would need to compete against.

[earthlover]

19. Good points....Obama should have a comfort level now....

His policies are pretty good. He can take the time to explain them. There isn't anything there that is going to be significant in making him look worse than Hillary. Really, they aren't THAT different.

If I were Obama, I would use every opportunity to "point" a question to basically go after McCain instead of focussing so much on Hillary. That would do three things....one, it makes him look like our nominee slaying Republican dragons. Two, it avoids getting negative about Hillary, or being perceived as such. Three, it doesn't give Hillary as many openings to retaliate. If he is talkiing about McCain, all she can say is "me too....I don't like him either". Hillary's problem with the debates is that she needs them to be significant, she needs to win them soundly instead of a draw and she probably also needs Obama to goof as well.

[Tom Rinaldo]

21. I pretty much agree with you here

Obama and Clinton's policies are not dramatically different in many cases, they have far more in common. The debates offer both Obama and Clinton opportunities and dangers, though the stakes are higher for Clinton and her need to execute well now is much more accute. What you describe would seem like a good game plan for Obama, but having a plan and making it work are two different things, Clinton will need a plan to keep Obama's plan from running smoothly.

[TheDonkey]

14. McCain = Dole II

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. Dole was never much liked by the public personally

And Dole ran against an incumbant President when he ran against Clinton. Outside of circles like this one here at DU, John McCain actually is popular - in some ways he is more popular outside of the Republican base than he is with it. If he can hold onto that base by exploiting their fears about a Democratic victory, McCain can reach out and appeal to a broader audiance seeking victory in November. Dole essentially never appealed to anyone.

[high density]

18. It's much more important for Hillary Clinton

She's the one that needs to find a way to get 70% support in some of these states. I don't see how it's possible for Obama to use the debate to argue with McCain. Clinton obviously isn't going to go quietly so he'll probably be preoccupied with defending himself from her attacks.

[harun]

22. Stick a fork in her, she's done (n/t)

[Tom Rinaldo]

25. I almost forgot to thank you for your bump :) n/t

[Recursion]

23. I don't think debates matter any more

People don't watch debates. Christ, Shrub ended up looking like a retarded chimp (more than he normally does) against both Gore and Kerry.

For that matter, the format itself is stupid. Some talking head asks a question and gets a 1-minute sound-byte in response. If debates were done the old way with a 30-minute statement followed by a 15-minute response (or something on that order) I would watch them; as it is I think they're worse than useless.

[Tom Rinaldo]

24. Debates with 10 candidates in them are essentially meaningless

But when it gets down to two or three participants, maybe four at the outside, they still are a real factor. No matter what the format, the candidates then get significant air time. The 2004 Presidential debates with Bush didn't put Kerry into the White House, but that has more to do with the then Republican Secretary of State in Ohio. Those debates helped put John Kerry back in the race after he had fallen behind Bush - they were a big part of how he closed the gap in the final month or so of the campaign.

The last Democratic Primary debate between Obama and Clinton brought a record number of viewers. It will be interesting to see how many are watching tomorrow night from Texas.

[stillcool]

26. I totally agree with you....

these debates are going to be either a final nail in the coffin, or a get out of jail free card for Hillary. And Obama has a lot to lose. If he doesn't produce it will provide a lot of fodder for Hillary to use to her advantage. As an added benefit it could dog him all the way to the General Election should he succeed and get the nomination. It's like walking the tight rope for both candidates.

[Tom Rinaldo]

27. No one ever said that running for President was for the faint of heart, lol

It's a damn tough job and you better be tough enough to handle it before you go asking Americans to trust you as our leader.

[stillcool]

28. Excluding George Bush I assume..

[Tom Rinaldo]

33. Lol. Well the public thought Junior had his Dad and Colin Powell

to keep him out of trouble. And some people actually thought of Cheney as a tough semi-pragmatist back when W first ran.

[ORDem]

35. No one is going to remember these debates in November. Believe me. n/t

[stillcool]

36. depends on the "media''

considering the kind of crap they put up on the television screen, and considering that those that still watch it spread everything that is said like wild fire, who knows?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

29. I don't think so.

This debate won't matter unless either candidate commits a major gaffe, which is unlikely.

[Tom Rinaldo]

30. Don't be so sure

It would not require Obama committing a major gaffe for Clinton to outshine him in the debates. I'm not saying that she will, just that if she does it can give her campaign a significant boost. Look, there is a reason why all along Hillary pointed to Texas and Ohio as States she can and will win while not making that claim about the others that she recently lost. Clinton is naturally much stronger in Texas and Ohio than she has been in WI and MD. Polling has consistently shown that. If citizens in TX and OH who almost certainly will be watching those debates see her outperform Obama in them they can give her chareal momentum heading into the primaries in those states.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

31. Pff.

"Look, there is a reason why all along Hillary pointed to Texas and Ohio as States she can and will win while not making that claim about the others that she recently lost."

Hillary Clinton is calling Texas and Ohio her firewalls because they're all she has left. NH was supposed to be her firewall. Nevada was supposed to be her firewall. Super Tuesday was supposed to be her firewall. Wisconsin was supposed to be her firewall.

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. I was with you on that list until you got to Wisconsin

She never counted on it being her fire wall, certainly not in the sense of expecting to win there after Super Tuesday.

And Clinton's other fire walls all worked. They kept her in the race after the momentum had shifted strongly to Obama. After SC and the media going crazy over Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Obama, there were fears that Clinton would lose States like MA, and NJ, and MA, and TN on Super Tuesday, but she fought back, winning the popular vote and virtually fighting to a virtual tie on delegates. Yes she once was expected to do better on Super Tuesday, she once was expected to win the nomination easily after all. But when you get to the point of talking about "fire walls", by definition we are far past the time when Clinton seemed inevitable. Her fire walls are what kept her in the race this far approaching TX and OH.

[ORDem]

34. Not really so important for Obama. He just needs to hold his own

to "win" in the debates. Yes, it will help his gravitas, especially since we can expect Hillary to get shrill in her last desperate attempts to gain ground against Barack. But the gravitas thing is overstated given that the GE debates are many months away.

Hillary needs these debates NOW, Barack, not so much.

:dem: