It's all over. I'm calling it for Obama.

[Jackpine Radical]

It is now pretty obvious to me that Barack Obama will be our nominee. I voted in the Wisconsin primary yesterday but have made a point of not broadcasting my choice at large on DU (not that I'm so self-inflated that I think many people would care); as a liberal/progressive and a disappointed Edwardian, I didn't really feel I had a horse in the race at this stage.

However, looking at things overall, I don't think the Hill forces can stop Barack, and it might not be a good thing if they did, especially if their victory came at the cost of destroying our electoral chances in the fall. I now want to set our sights on November. Hillary or Barack, I want a Democrat in the White House next January. I just hope we can wrap this whole mess up soon, quit the savage bloodletting on each other, and get on with the business of restoring a sane administration to America. That means we have to pick one of them and all start pushing in the same direction. It's gonna be a helluva battle against the entrenched forces this fall. Think "cornered rat." No, think "cornered wolverine."

From my relatively neutral position, it looks like Barack is the one to get behind.

[Coexist]

1. there are still 2 debates, a brand spanking new 527,

and the very real possibility of a bombshell.

I don't think its over yet. Clinton can't win at this point, I think she is waiting for Obama to lose.

my .02

[Bullet1987]

2. I about ready to call it for Obama too...

[Jackpine Radical]

4. You may be a tinge more biased than I am.

I don't know what it is about your post that gives me that feeling....

[GumboYaYa]

3. It was over when she lost VA by 29 points.

She lost the support of her key constituencies. We have been watching the campaign spiral downward since then. All we can hope now is that there is no collateral damage as she tries to salvage a lost cause.

[Jackpine Radical]

5. Right. Her salvage attempts may disrupt Obama's attempt to launch

a Ship of State.

[ooga booga]

6. Report on early voting in the Texas primary

Here in Texas we have a window of early voting from February 19 thru February 29 -- then the actual primary day on Tuesday, March 4.

The first day of early voting was described by the Tarrant County official as "off the charts." (I was one of those first day voters myself.)

I think that probably doesn't bode well for John McCain in the long term and for Hillary Clinton in the short term.

http://www.star-telegram.com/localelections/story/483925.html


Nevertheless, I am not quite ready to call the race, but I think it may well be over on March 5th.

[SoFlaJet]

7. The conventional wisdom that the MSM has

that "you can't ever count the Clintons' out" I just don't understand-it's over, they are done for-I don't care who they are when you've lost 10 in a row by being pretty much trounced-I'm sorry it just ain't happening. Ed Schultz said it last night too on Larry King at midnight. There comes a point of no return and we are at it today, like it or not Clinton supporters. I'm not being mean either here-it is what it is folks....O-V-E-R

[tridim]

8. They just want you to tune in to watch their pundits scream at each other some more.

Otherwise, they know it's over too.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

23. Ha ha.

Last night CNN was saying Obama needs 150 pledged delegate count over Clinton to have it in the bag. This morning he's got 159. I wonder if they're just trying to keep it exciting for ratings.

[RBInMaine]

9. Not over yet. WE NEED TO CLOSE THE DEAL.

I've been doing national phone banking from home for Barack and have sent in some small donations. We need to close the deal. McCain and the RuTHUGlican machine are going to come after Obama bigtime because they want desperately to run against Hillary instead and/or taint and define Obama before the Dems finish their primaries, and Hillary's attack machine is going to ramp up because they are desperate as well and defending the Alamo. Please go to BarackObama.com and help him win with donations and/or home-based phone banking or anything else you can do. It's easy. Every little bit helps.

[Politicub]

10. I think it's over too

And I'm a Hillary supporter from the beginning. Obama has the momentum and now the fight should move to defeating McCain in the general.

I'm not ready to change my Hillary avatar yet, though. :)

[SoFlaJet]

14. there just comes a point where you have to enter the real world Politicub

it happened to me with John Edwards-a week before the Florida whatever the fuck it was. I saw a story in the Huff Post where the Edwards campaign said that they didn't expect to win any primaries. So I'm sitting here thinking, WHY am I supporting a candidate that doesn't even believe ITSELF that it can win. I switched my support over to Obama-BTW I was right since he bowed out right after Florida

[zipplewrath]

11. Let's let everyone vote.

I voted for Obama, by the time the parade came around, my man Richardson was well gone. But for once we have a primary where everyone is going to get to participate. Where everyone's vote is gonna "count". Let's let the rest of the country vote. Do I suspect Obama's gonna get more "pledged" delegates than Hillary? Yeah, yes I do. But the devil will be in these details. When all is said and done we need to line everybody up and then decide. I'm more than willing to accept and get behind Hillary. I'd prefer Obama at this point but I'm not dumb enough to through a fit and throw out the baby with the bath water. To pull a "Nader" so to speak. But more than anything I want everyone to participate. Let's get to a convention where folks all felt like they had a part.

If I could make a plea, it is this. Someone's gonna lose. And really, no matter how it falls out, I don't think it's gonna be easy, clear, convincing, or pretty. But we ALL need to pick a point, well short of "never" when we accept the outcome. You don't have to like it, you don't have to agree, and you don't even have to defend it. But we each need to decide NOW when we "give up". At a bare minium I would hope it was when "our" candidate asked us. Obama supporters, I know we've had a good ride. But if it gets to a point where he steps out on a stage and says it's over, we've got to accept that, even if we know that there was more smoke in more backrooms than we ever thought we'd see again. And really, the same goes for the Hillary crowd. I know there has the whole "presumptive" nominee phase. Some of you have been on this train for probably 8 years. Some came recently. I know she's been through alot and "earned her stripes". But if she steps out on that stage and tells you she's done, please accept it.

And there is some other point one must get to. Let's call it the Ron Paul moment. It's that point when you realize that you nominee, as much as you like and support them, is grasping for straws and won't accept reality. It's hard to get off the stage, especially when you were so close. Ask Kerry, ask Gore, it's hard but they do need to get there and they don't need a bunch of us egging them on to stay. When YOU realize it's over for them, you need to start moving on, even if they haven't walked the stage yet.

So let's all take a deep breath, let everyone finish voting, and in the mean time figure out just when each of us are going to choose to "let go".

[Seabiscuit]

12. "the one to get behind"??? This isn't a horse race or a sporting event.

And I'm not some dumb drunk jock sports fan with an inferiority complex that spurs me to jump on some "winner's" bandwagon. I don't need to be "number one".

This election is not about winners and losers or anything else that's simplistic and black and white.

It's about the future of this country after eight devastating years of the most destructive administration in history. It's about the issues that will need to be adressed and the problems that have to be solved to recover from this long nightmare, and exactly how to go about solving them. Economically, America is teetering on the brink of becoming another third-world country.

I've never been a Hillary or Barack supporter, because I find them both deeply disappointing and untrustworthy. I am sickened at how the nauseating Tweety's of the MSM have manipulated the sheeple once again and handed us another choice between tweedle dee and tweedle dum.

[Marrah_G]

13. perhaps you could allow the rest of the people to get a vote first?

[Jackpine Radical]

19. I think I am perhaps powerless to stop that from happening in any case.

[JorgeTheGood]

15. Big mistake ...

The longer Hillary hangs around the better for Obama. Once he's on his own, man-to-man with McCain the Republican smear machine and MSM will tear him a new one.

[Beausoir]

21. I think there is something to that. Once the media doesn't have Hillary to savage, Obama is going

to get a real brutal lesson in politics.

Will be very interesting to watch.

[davsand]

16. Her chances of winning get slimmer by the day.

With every Primary she lost her chances of winning got that much smaller. At this point in time--with the delegate count being what it is--she has to take something like 60 or 65% in every remaining state. THAT is a tall order, but it is still mathematically possible for her to win. I think anything can happen (lord knows we have seen spectacular meltdowns happen in politics before) but I also think that it is fairly unlikely.

While listening to McCain's speech last night, I was struck by how he's framing the election already. McCain, I think, is already running against Obama. What I find so interesting about it, is that McCain is running against Obama based on his experience and what he says is Obama's lack of substance. Those would be the same points that have been used in this Dem Primary, and they have not been terribly effective thus far.

We'll see how this plays out.



Laura

[zipplewrath]

18. It will be a different audience

"What I find so interesting about it, is that McCain is running against Obama based on his experience and what he says is Obama's lack of substance. Those would be the same points that have been used in this Dem Primary, and they have not been terribly effective thus far."


It will be a different audience in the general election, and one not so as interested in moving away from EVERYTHING about the last 8 years. The whole "I was against Iraq from day one" really won't have much effect against McCain. No on misunderstands McCain's position, there is no nuance to be made, nor any level of "consistency" that Obama can declare. They are on polar opposites, that either matters to a voter or not and then it's over. He will have to engage McCain on the whole "there will be more wars" thing. Obama can't just say "no there won't". He'll have to explain how with him they can be avoided without risk to our security. I think it can be done but it's gonna have to be something more than "hope".

John has jumped on the "permanent tax cuts" band wagon. Obama has to explain how that's not gonna happen without being a Walter Mondale saying "I'll raise your taxes".

I think there is some fertile ground in the whole "corruption" game, but McCain does come in with his campaign finance reform history on which to stand.

The one thing I think spills over well from the primary to the general election is the whole "change/turning a page/moving on/new ideas" angle. McCain is a bajillion years old. He's been part of the Washington crowd since at least Reagan. For those tired of Bush/Clinton/Bush, he can bring the whole "new blood" approach with him. VP choice will be critical here. He's gonna need "experience" without "entrenched beauracrat". When McCain brings up Vietnam, Obama needs to respond with something about not needing to "re-fight old wars", or "the wisdom not to send anymore young men to be POW's for marginal conflicts". And he needs to connect McCain to every undesireable thing that has happened for the last 20+ years. Savings and Loan collapse, job losses, pension failures, credit market collapse, and heck the TSA and airline flight or something. Anything bad that's happened needs to be connected to the concept of "keep electing what you've had, you'll keep gettin' what ya got".

[davsand]

24. McCain has embraced Dubya's economic policies.

Right now the public is worried about the economy and domestic issues. McCain wants to continue what we already know isn't working. I honestly don't think that is gonna fly either.

I dunno if you have noticed or not, but Obama is always VERY careful to say he honors McCain for his service to this nation, THEN he goes on to say that McCain has stated he sees the Iraq occupation continuing for another 100 years. Nobody has the stomach for that--especially the "real" GOP conservatives (meaning the FISCAL conservatives. Most of the Republicans I know will be very quick to tell you that Dubya is NOT a conservative, and that the fundies are SOCIAL conservatives.)

As for the VP choice, do you have anyone you think would bring credibility to the ticket?


Laura

[PassingFair]

17. Kool-Aid Drinker! Woman-Hater!

Get off your High-Horse!

:sarcasm:

I feel the same way, but came to the same conclusion
during Super Tuesday. People were looking for a viable
alternative. I am still surprised that Obama turned out
to BE one!

[gasperc]

20. now don't get cocky, Clinton was humming until the nov debate

where she got tripped up by the driver license question.

Debate tomorrow and a debate Tuesday. Hillary will try to trip up Obama like Bush cut into Gore "after" the debate, with all the bullshit spin.

Look for Clinton to try and tee something up on Thursday, that she can pound on till Tuesday.

For Obama, he needs to avoid the traps and emphasize how he's been "right", like the recent attack in Pakistan that killed the Al-queda leader, like how cooperative efforts to bring free elections there were far more effective than the purely stick approach by the Bush administration. Pound on the GOP's woeful economic record and how Bush's tax cut GOT US TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY AND MAKING THEM PERMANENT WOULD MAKE THINGS WORSE.

[Jackpine Radical]

22. Cocky has nothing to do with it, gasperc.

All I want is an end to the Primary bloodletting. I care a little bit about which one wins, but not a lot. I mostly just want a Dem, and I want the internecine warfare to stop. People are a lot more likely to hurt each other and themselves when they're both in the same foxhole throwing hand grenades at each other than when they're exchanging fire with enemies outside the hole.