Clinton 14 points ahead in Ohio

[OzarkDem]

Obama isn't getting traction here, a state where you have to be a registered voter and declare party affiliation to vote in the primary. Its a true measure of real voters support.

No president has ever been elected without winning Ohio. If Obama doesn't win here March 4, he will no longer be considered a viable candidate for November.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

[SammyWinstonJack]

1. K&R

[Skwmom]

61. Republican officials are urging REPUBLICANS to vote for Clinton.

So yes REPUBLICANS can vote for Clinton in the primary.

[displacedtexan]

176. Off topic, but I like seeing my dog in your posts! On topic...

This is excellent news about Ohio, isn't it?

[Independent-Voter]

2. Ohio, the state that brought up 8 years of The Chimp

Truly a bellweather of critical thinkers there. Yep.

[Bluebear]

60. So you want to write Ohio off, "independent" voter?

[Renew Deal]

3. Keep believing that

If it makes you feel better. :rofl:

[scheming daemons]

4. Those are old polls now..... watch what happens the next few days....

Hillary was up by 22 in Wisconsin 3 weeks ago.


By March 4th, she'll be behind in Ohio. The demographics are the same as Missouri.

[GarbagemanLB]

6. So true.

[jackson_dem]

148. What happened in those three weeks? Super Tuesday?

Nothing major will happen to give Obama momentum over the next 2 weeks.

[kentuck]

5. As I recall...

She was also ahead in WI just a couple of weeks ago? WI and OH are very similar in their voters. For what it's worth.

[jackson_dem]

149. Yeah, and then Super Tuesday happened

[mckeown1128]

7. Obama isn't getting traction?!?

He was behind 30 a month ago. Now some polls have him as close as nine points. Give us all a break from your spin.

[OzarkDem]

35. Ohio is different

Its a real primary, can't be rigged w/ students and non-registered voters in caucuses. You have to be a registered Dem or agree to become a registered Dem for the next 2 years to vote.

[Blue_Roses]

"rigged with students"...

:wtf:

[Renew Deal]

165. Democracy is so inconvenient.

:shrug:

[Lerkfish]

50. "rigged"???? desperate.clutch.at.straws

LOL.

[OzarkDem]

75. No one minds students and unregistered voters having a say

But they should register to vote and declare party affiliation if they want to vote in a Dem primary.

All these people will have a chance to vote in the GE if they register.

[Lerkfish]

98. Do you have proof of your "rigged" allegations or not?

or are you just pulling this stuff out of thin air?

[mckeown1128]

123. Well it's a good thing that these primary rules are developed...

by each states democratic primary and not you. Just because you think the rules should be different... doesn't mean any particular candidate is stealing the election.

[JorgeTheGood]

54. Yup -- no dems for a day in OH

it's a real test for BO and like the man said ... he loses OH - he loses the WH.

[9119495]

116. Actually, if a candidate loses a state in a primary, they can

still win it in the general election...even in Ohio. Most people know this.

[PassingFair]

58. What was Wisconsin?

A FAKE primary?

Obama will take Ohio as well.

[jpljr77]

64. Just like Maryland, a state Hillary easily won...

Wait a second, that didn't happen, did it? :shrug:

[jackson_dem]

153. Maryland is a completely different state than Ohio for a Democratic primary

[Recursion]

93. "rigged with students"?

Nice

[SOS]

129. Odd isn't it?

When the youth vote failed to materialize for Kerry in 2004, the youth were excoriated for their apathy.
In 2008, they are turning out in droves for Obama and are accused of "rigging" the elections.

:eyes:

[SoxFan]

156. Indeed

[rox63]

105. So are you saying all the ones Obama won are rigged?

That would be about half the country. :eyes:

[OzarkDem]

109. Caucuses are easily manipulated

and may not necessarily reflect similar support in the GE.

[Lerkfish]

115. wow

just wow.


you guys are just as arrogant when you lose as when you win.

[rox63]

132. You think all the caucuses except Nevada were manipulated?

:crazy:

[mckeown1128]

119. rigged with students? What the hell does that mean?

yeah Obama is "stealing the election" by convincing all those "young" voters to vote.

[Lerkfish]

133. you've still provided no proof of your accusations, so I'll consider it

you blowing smoke out of your ass.

[jackson_dem]

150. Great! No rethug ringers voting 70-30 for Obama!

[Renew Deal]

164. Ohio is a real primary with 60,000 Teamsters

[democrattotheend]

173. Rigged with students?

So students participating is somehow rigging the process? Are they somehow not "real voters"?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

178. Huh.

Sounds like how the dixiecrats used to complain about the freedom riders.

[JVS]

122. He shall overcome!

[lojasmo]

8. Clinton will have to get 65% of the delegates

In Ohio, Pensylvania, and Texas to get ahead in pledged delegates. 14% lead in Ohio (if that's accurate) will not come close to getting her that...especially since Obama is likely to win Texas (at least in delegates, if not the popular vote)

Clinton is done...she, and her supporters, remain unaware.

[CreekDog]

17. Actually to get 65% of delegates probably takes about 70% of votes

Anyone here think Hillary and her vaunted campaign team can run that kind of margin in two weeks?

Frankly, with her campaign, she's lucky if they don't manage to alienate her 14% lead before primary day.

[lojasmo]

90. Survey USA C:52%.... O:43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f333c0e2-db75-40c1-90c3-2a9f25af12e8

Looks like Wisconsin redoux.

[DemVet]

143. Actually, all she has to do is...

...prevent BO from getting the number needed to nominate. Then they can knife-fight for the Nomination at the convention...

[lojasmo]

171. No. When clinton loses in Tx and Oh, supers will flock to Obama.

Sorry. Clinton is done on 3/5/08.

[democrattotheend]

174. If she's that selfish

I think she knows that if Obama goes into the convention with more pledged delegates, the superdelegates will not be stupid enough to override the pledged delegates and give her the nomination. But staying in until August hurts his chances in November, and I am not sure that bothers her too much. After all, if he loses in the general, she gets another shot in 4 years. I'd like to believe she's more of a team player than that, but I'd love to hear John Kerry's thoughts on the matter.

[DemVet]

177. Actually...

...there was an article here about the super delegates in Virginia. Of the ones pledged firmly to Hillary at the beginning of the campaign, all say they will remain that way.

One must remember the super delegate system was imposed to give party bigwigs a say in the nomination...they are to vote their conscience. They don't have to vote what their district of state voted.

[CreekDog]

9. winning Ohio in the general election Einstein

:spank:

but i don't mean to interfere with the tortured logic that makes Ohio more important than Clinton losing 25 states.

jeez, get a grip.

[OzarkDem]

77. If he doesn't win the primary in Ohio

it will be hard to come back an win it in the GE.

[CreekDog]

97. by that logic, she will have trouble in 25 states in the GE

which is worse?

on edit: not to suggest that I buy into your logic anyway, but I can play along a bit.

[scheming daemons]

106. So Hillary would lose MD, WI, CT, DC, ME, and WA in the general?

By your logic, she would lose all of those traditionally Democratic states.

[RiverStone]

159. But what if he wins in TX on March 4th?

That alone makes the math basically impossible for Hillary, regardless of what happens in OH.

[my3boyz]

10. Mmmmmmhmmmm...keep telling yourself that. Latest poll shows it at 9

and closing in! Oh and don't forget about Texas.

[Strelnikov_]

11. Ohio counts. Got it. So unlike Iowa

where you have to be a registered voter and declare party affiliation to caucus.

Oh, wait . . .

[krkaufman]

167. You've forgotten the caucus exception. Caucus states don't count. n/t

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

12. Ohio is one of the worst election fraud states in the US

New SOS Brunner has come up with "solutions" to the problems, but they are a day
late (a year late actually) and actually may make things worse.

Brunner has ordered that Cuyahoga County and a few others will not count the
votes at the polling places where there are observers,

instead the ballots will be carted off mid day to the county office, and then counted.
A second pick up will occur at the end of the day.

Ohio - most likely to be corrupted, Pennsylvania - most likely to have machine malfunctions.

Texas - hard to tell.

[OzarkDem]

36. Ohio's governor and SOS are loyal Dems

who have worked incredibly hard to clean up elections here. Obama supporters should be very careful about attacking them, it will backfire.

[Le Taz Hot]

62. Anytime ballots are moved

from the polling place to be counted elsewhere, there is a problem. (Please note, I have no dog in this race.)

[OzarkDem]

82. Link?

[Le Taz Hot]

110. There is no link.

One of the major contentions in election fraud is that ballots are more likely to be "lost in transit" as opposed to counting the ballots at the polling place.

Really, if you have any questions on election fraud the Elections forum is a great place to get yourself educated.

[stillcool]

111. I was wondering about that...

I know the study "the EVEREST Voting System Review" that was done on the Secretary of State's behalf was very comprehensive and is often used to reveal the flaws in our voting systems. The recommended solutions are also cited and have been adopted by many states, but I don't know if Ohio has yet been able to implement them in it's own voting systems. Other than California I don't know of a Secretary of State that has done more to bring these issues to light. I hope she's gotten some results for all her efforts.

[Thrill]

13. LOL. Your logic makes no sense

How does not winning in the Primary mean you can't win there in November against a Republican? Get real.

[Arkana]

134. Well, that's the same argument they've been using

concerning California, Massachusetts and New York.

Clearly, since Obama didn't beat the name-recognition, machine, establishment candidate in those states he doesn't deserve the nomination. :sarcasm:

[onenote]

14. "real voters"?

So independents votes don't count?

Who knew?

[OzarkDem]

40. Not unless they declare Dem party affiliation for 2 years

Its harder to do crossover voting in Ohio primaries.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

67. Bullshit...

Any voter and request a party ballot. They can cross over just as easily in Ohio as they can anywhere else (I did it in 2000).

[OzarkDem]

86. Then you were a Dem for 2 years after

Not all GOP'ers want to make that commitment.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

118. I was always a Democrat

I picked up the Republican Ballot in 2000. Voted Democratic in the next primary. On the voter lists, I showed up as a Republican in 2000, but that doesn't mean anything. Lots of Democratic voters showed up as Republican voters that year.

The point here is that there is nothing that would prevent any voter in Ohio from picking up either ballot.

[mtnester]

172. Not so easy

I am telling you, Repubs simply will NOT switch to Dems for two years in the mass switch everyone thinks they will..neither will Indies.

THAT is how the game works here. You are listed, with the State, as a Dem, if you ask for that ballot March 4, until the next primary election, in 2010. If you are Indie, and don't want to switch to Dem, you get an Issues Only ballot.

Lots of Indies and Repubs won't do it..

[BridgeTheGap]

15. The familiar refrain: "Ahead in the polls"

alas, only to lose the actual election!

[RoadRage]

42. Ahh.. i remember back in the day, when Hillary was "ahead in the polls" in Wisconsin..

Ohh.. whew.. those were the days. We'd all sit back, drink lemonaid and talk about Chelsea running around the backyard chasing the dog... ahh, my how I miss those days. Errr.. wait, those "days" were just like 2 weeks ago - weren't they?

:eyes:

I think the term "currently ahead in the polls" might be a phrase or "just words" that the Clinton's would rather not use or hear.

[Exilednight]

56. I remember when Hillary was ahead in all of the polls

[Avalux]

16. Sometimes we choose to believe what we want instead of accepting the truth.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4678815

[saltpoint]

18. Post-Wisconsin, we'll see if those numbers might just tighten a bit.

[jackson_dem]

155. How much does Wisconsin matter outside of political junkies, though?

[saltpoint]

169. It matters the same as votes matter anywhere. The demographic

parallels in other states would be the gauge of support for any candidate.

[chieftain]

19. Be sure and post updates as that lead shrinks. (eom)

[OzarkDem]

44. We keep hearing that, but it hasn't happened yet

Obama's campaign has already come here, he's just not picking up much Dem support.

[cali]

49. Sorry, the newest SUSA poll that came out yesterday

has him only 9 pts back- and he hasn't even really started campaigning there. I'm sure you know that SUSA is the firm that's been most accurate this season. He's made huge inroads. Prepare for more. It's happening even if you refuse to see it.

[NJSecularist]

88. Sorry, but Obama hasn't even stepped foot in Ohio yet

[OzarkDem]

101. He's been here n/t

[NJSecularist]

104. When? New Years Eve?

[OzarkDem]

112. He was in Youngstown on Monday

His wife has been appearing around the state.

[NJSecularist]

114. And that was one day, before this new SurveyUSA poll came out which showed him within 9 points

Sorry, but Obama is making movement. He was down 19 in the same poll. He took 10 points off her lead before he even stepped in the state.

[mopinko]

113. we are coming from illinois

we are done in wisconsin. all of your bases are belong to us.

[XemaSab]

135. You have no chance to survive

Make your time. :o

[babylonsister]

20. Here's a straw. Now, grasp!

[bigtree]

83. why not? If you believe in your candidate . . .

what's with the taunting? just curious.

[babylonsister]

99. You're right, that was taunting. I just find it

curious that some people are living in fantasy land. You tell me; when will Clinton acknowledge she's history, or are we going to play this game until August, or whenever the convention is?
I know I'd be heartbroken if she were my candidate, but at some point I'd face reality. When is that point for her?
Better question; is there any way Clinton can rebound, especially with her going even more negative now? Will there be a point where our party matters more than her political aspirations?

[bigtree]

126. she's going to do the right thing for the party in the end, I believe.

no one of any consequence will support anything otherwise.

[Sulawesi]

102. The OP was not only off the mark, but in your face about.

[Jackpine Radical]

21. Did they poll the voting machines or something? (nt)

[still_one]

22. "A true measure of real voters"? That is the problem with the Clinton campaign

you have to appeal to the greatest group of people, and no one can win the general election without the independents

[bowens43]

23. Huh?

"If Obama doesn't win here March 4, he will no longer be considered a viable candidate for November."

Nonsense. This is one of the most ridiculous arguments you Hillary people make. Are you saying that if Obama doesn't win Ohio in the primaries but gets the nomination that Hillary supporters will vote for McCain?

Any comparison to the general election is a bullshit argument that wreaks of desperation.

[GumboYaYa]

24. Ohio is the only state that matters.

We should just hold an Ohio primary every cycle and that will be the nominee. Who cares what happens in all those other states out there, its all about Ohio? This should tell you what the Clinton campaign is seeing in Texas.

The shifting sands in that campaign together with the fish out of water search for an attack that will stick is getting as comical as anything I can remember in recent political history.

[TheDonkey]

137. So it has come to this. Bravo Hillary... bravo.

[nomorewhopper]

25. She's going to need a lot more than 14 points in Ohio if she wants to win this thing for real

[CoffeeCat]

26. Here we go again!

Clinton is always ahead by double digits--until the state meets the full force of the Obama campaign.

Her lead was 20+ points just two days ago. Her numbers are trending downward, and his are trending
upward.

Ohio will go the way of the last 10 states, and also Texas (where Clinton had a 20-point lead last week).

[CreekDog]

27. The OP is a mendacious OAF!

Quoting an average of polls, not one poll and these polls are over two weeks.

The latest poll shows a 9 point lead, before that a 14 point lead, before that a 21 point lead.

SurveyUSA 2/17-18/08 773 LV 52 43 1
Rasmussen Reports 2/13/08 754 LV 51 37 12
Quinnipiac University 2/6-12/08 564 LV 55 34 9

Like I said: OAF and nowhere to be found on this thread since the OP.

[JeanGrey]

28. Nonsense. Three Ohio's won't save Hillary.

It's over for her.

[HughMoran]

29. I think the 9 point lead from yesterdays SUSA poll is probably closer to reality

I really think Obama may be unstoppable at this point - oh, well.

[zulchzulu]

30. Enjoy the lead for the day or two that you have

Other Ohio poll indications have it pretty much tied within the MoE. Obama has basically just started campaigning there and doing ads.

Expect another Obama blowout by March 4th....10-15%.

[9119495]

31. Hi-larious...

If he doesn't win here March 4th...

He'll be running AGAIN there in November. I was unaware he'd be disqualified from the general election if he lost on March 4th.

Missouri has picked all the winners since like forever...so who are you voting for now that Hillary is out of the race as a viable candidate?

Piece of shit post. Enjoy your McCain vote in November.

[yourguide]

32. Most recent poll shows him

closing that gap my friend...went from 16% to 9% and we still have a couple weeks to go.

[berni_mccoy]

33. Too bad for her, she needs a 25 point lead in ALL the remaining states to turn it around.

Otherwise, Obama wins.

[nomorewhopper]

34. Survey USA Poll (2/17-18) Clinton 52 vs. Obama 43

Looks like that traction is starting to set in.

Let's see how the numbers look after last night's news starts to settle

http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[LiveLiberally]

37. How are you defining "real voters"? (and JFK didn't need Ohio)

Are you suggesting that the majority of Americans who have voted for Obama over Clinton are not "real"? I find your argument not only specious but undemocratic.

Point of fact: JFK in 1960 didn't win Ohio.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=1960


edit: added to subject title

[RoadRage]

38. "Its a true measure of real voters support"

I love this line.. because it indicates that Republicans or Independents who vote are not "real voters"..

Yet, in a General Election - those fake votes seem to count exactly the same as the real democratic ones do.

I'm sure people think that voters are crossing over and voting for Obama, just to go vote for McCain in the GE, but this is happening in small numbers. People REALLY LIKE OBAMA. Why is it a problem to get people from the other side onto our team? Doesn't this help push legislation through down the road?

Either way.. Clinton is going to need to hold on to that 14 point lead tightly... because if she wins Ohio by even 5 - 8%, it's not going to do her much good.

Also - records are made to be broken.. and I can see Obama losing a close Ohio election, and still win the General. I have a feeling his number of "loss" votes will still be more then McCain's "win" votes.

[OzarkDem]

41. Ohio's Dem primary is for registered Dems

GOP'ers and Independents are free to vote in the GE, if they wish or declare themselves as Democrats for the next 2 years.

[RoadRage]

47. Exactly my point!

So Hillary winning a primary in OH where "only registered dems" can vote does not show how she would do in a General Election - because in a G.E. voters can flip sides.

Obama has a much greater chance of winning OH (like most other states) because in a General Election, he is going to pull more independents and republicans. Votes we need. Votes that Hillary will not get.

Her winning a primary means nothing if she can't pull enough votes to win a general election.

[rodeodance]

39. Thanks for the post. Polls are weird but I do think she has a good chance there.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

43. it's not the current poll...it's the slope of the line...21%, 14%, 9% gaps...

chronologically over the last week. Just like in every other state in the last ten contests, except Hawaii, which he never trailed.
That said, he won't win Ohio by 17%, like he did Wisconsin. But he'll win it by at least 5%.

[smiley_glad_hands]

45. This is going to be a long two weeks.

If she loses Ohio and Texas will you guys concede?

[1awake]

46. Guys please stop saying stuff like that,

It's been said about so many states so many times it doesnt even hold weight anymore. I live so close to Ohio I can see it out my back door, and Hillary won't be 14 point ahead of anything come time to vote. But neither will Obama. It will be fairly close regardless of who wins.. the same as WV.

[RBInMaine]

48. Bullshit. He can get close, AND WILL, and will still be very viable.

As in MANY states, Hillary already had the HUGE name recognition advantage and establishment support in Ohio.
She has the help of the Governor, and lord knows how many others. Obama has been the underdog from the beginning nationally, and he has outcampaigned her bigtime thus far. But we have a way to go before March 4th, and there is little doubt that he will be able to make up one hell of a lot of ground. His goal is to get close, and he will. He may well overtake her with his momentum as he continues to cut into her base voters just as he did in Wisconsin and Virginia. Hillary now has to win every remaining state by HUGE margins to stop Obama. Won't happen.

[thatsrightimirish]

51. the giuliani strategy

good luck with that

[TomClash]

52. According to SUSA Obama is down by 9 BEFORE Wisconsin nt

[L0oniX]

53. Polls are for strippers ...silly

:sarcasm:

[backscatter712]

55. That's what the bobbleheads said about Wisconsin...

And you might want to reexamine the numbers - contrary to spin, Obama's now decently ahead in the delegate counts, including superdelegates, and Clinton's rapidly running out of chances to catch up. If she doesn't preserve that lead in both Ohio and Texas like she didn't in Wisconsin, she's sunk.

[Araxen]

57. First it was Iowa, then MO, then WI, and now

if you can't win OH now your whole viability is gone? You Clinton people need take off the blinders.

[Maine-i-acs]

59. This is a PRIMARY. Obama can lose and still win it in the GE.

Come November Obama can be alone on the Dem ticket and McCain will still be a POS.

[557188]

92. Obama won't win Ohio in the GE

All the kool-aide in the world won't change november reality.

[long_green]

128. he very well may not, and as the OP says

no one has ever lost Ohio and won the GE. Fair enough. Do you really think HRC will win Ohio in November? The OP is based on a closed primary dooming Obama's chances. How does a Clinton win in March tell us she's going to win the whole state in November? It doesn't.
Right now, I give Obama a one in four chance of getting elected POTUS. Clinton has like a 1 in forty chance.

[Hepburn]

63. Please, do yourself a favor, OK?

Stop making a total and complete ass of yourself with every post or reply you make. At this point I am actually getting embarrassed for you and wonder if you are even capable to taking the blinders off.

Hillary is tanking and tanking badly. See the truth and accept it. However, you do have the option of continuing to make a fool of yourself. Loyalty is a great and honorable thing ~~ until you cling to it and ignore facts and reason as you have done.

JMHO

[OzarkDem]

81. So anyone who supports Clinton

is an ass? Perhaps Obama supporters should take a closer look at themselves. Demonizing the opposition doesn't help your candidate.

[anigbrowl]

142. Since when do you represent all Clinton supporters?

Think about it.

[workinclasszero]

65. Clinton always starts ahead

then loses to Obama.:hi:

[MannyGoldstein]

66. Wanna Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is?

I'll bet $10 that Obama wins. Loser sends $10 to the opposition's campaign.

[yellowcanine]

68. Let's assume Clinton hangs on and wins Ohio (by no means a given) by a few points.

What actually changes? - nothing really. Obama gets almost as many delegates, the campaign goes on. Obama is quite likely to get more delegates in Texas even if he loses by a small margin there. All Clinton gets in such a scenario is blunting Obama's momentum slightly and the bleeding slows a little. Clinton needs big double digit wins in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to get back into this thing. I don't see it happening.

[Colobo]

69. Don't worry, Ozark... that will change... :)

[Colobo]

70. Don't worry, Ozark... that will change... :)

[totodeinhere]

71. Survey USA has Clinton only up by 9 points. Her lead has been cut in half in one week.

SurveyUSA. 2/17-18 (2/10-11). 733 likely voters. MoE 3.7%

Clinton 52% (56)
Obama 43% (39)

More bad news for Clinton, with her lead in this must-win state being cut in half in the past week, with two weeks to go to the primary. Obama gained the most ground among men and voters 18-34.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/2d5yrb

It's another case of dueling polls. That's why I don't think it is helpful to only quote the poll that is most favorable to your particular candidate.

[GOTV]

72. No traction? It was 21 points just last week. Posted right here n/t

[kid a]

73. you, me and most people know this is not true

Obama is gaining in OHIO

[Obamaniac]

74. Don't be a loser Ozark...

Obama will win in Ohio. Even if he loses and wins Texas, Hillary is still toast.

[Occam Bandage]

76. Just like in Wisconsin, just like in the rest of the country, we eat 20-point leads for breakfast.

[Political Heretic]

78. This sounds EERILY familiar....

[miceelf]

79. Ummm

Most recent poll has Clinton up 9. Two weeks ago, she was up 20. Would be surprised if he manages to catch her, but the notion that he's not getting traction doesn't seem accurate. He's gaining. Probably not quickly enough, but he started 30 points down.

I'll also point out that the last two presidential elections, we won Wisconsin by less than a percentage point, so THAT state is going to be a must-win as well. You can't just assume that every purple state we've already won is a given.

[Arugula Latte]

80. You know, it's a terrible thing to have a candidate who appeals to a broad swath of voters

That Obama -- lots of independents like him. We certainly don't want that in the general! No sirree. Let's stick with Hillary, who is popular only with white women over 60. That's a good strategy for us.

[bigtree]

89. Of course, it's those very voters who we'll need to turn around and vote for Obama in the general.

the short-sightedness here is breathtaking.

[Arugula Latte]

108. I'm not saying they ALL will. I'm saying a very large chunk will.

Have you seen the polling lately in head-to-head match-ups? Hillary loses key states for us, while Obama wins them for us against McPain.

Talk about short-sightedness -- You guys want to stick us with a candidate who will lose the general for us in a year when we should easily run away with this election.

[book_worm]

84. That's an average the most recent poll by Survey USA has him within 9

closing the gap. You people sure like to grasp at straws.

[truebrit71]

85. "Real voters" support? Excuse me? Only Democrats will vote for the Dem candidate in Nov?

Huh?

That's just so stupid it's not even funny...

The whole reason Obama has been kicking HRC's ass up hill and down dale is specifically because he appeals to voters OTHER than Dems as well as the Dem base...

Keep on believing that bullshit about the primary as well..."no longer a viable candidate for november" um....that would make him 10-1....I'd say that's more viable than the person that's 1-10....no?

[thesubstanceofdreams]

87. So discount all other 49 states

Neither of them count.
Only Ohio counts now.

:sarcasm:

[aein]

91. Jinks!

[weezie1317]

94. Obama gained 5% in 3 days!

Wow! He's behind by 9% now, while only 3 days ago the polls were showing him 14% behind. It'll be interesting to see what the polls show in the next few days now that he's won 10 in a row.

:D

[helderheid]

95. On another topic, have they gotten rid of the machines in Ohio?

[catgirl]

96. Yeah, the rest were fake voters

and Obama won't be a viable candidate if he loses Ohio? LOL.

[cooolandrew]

100. Obama supporters shall consider this a challange. May the best candidate win.=)

[elixir]

103. Thanks, Ozarkdem. Sounds like Hillary is holding her own and winning some votes!

[femrap]

107. K and R

Looking forward to March 4 and casting my vote for HRC!

[DuaneBidoux]

117. No candidate has ever been elected in all the states with 48% negative (either).

[Skidmore]

120. She was 22 points ahead in Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago.

And no president is ever elected without winning Missouri either.

[grantcart]

121. wow you really have no self respect left at all do you?

[billyoc]

124. Check it again at 4pm.

What was it yesterday, BTW?

[Lisa0825]

125. Bookmarked.... to kick when the results prove you wrong!

:evilgrin:

[ORDem]

127. Disingenuous, just like your candidate.

You're looking at an average with polls a week old, pre-WI, pre-HI. The latest has Hillary ahead only 9 points.
The trend is not her friend. Obama will get plenty of traction in OH, which has a very similar demographic profile to WI.

:eyes:

[Ohio Joe]

130. I did my part

Already sent in my absentee ballot with my vote for Obama.

[Xero1]

131. About Ohio

Here are some things to remember about Ohio. Despite what people think or say it is easy to crossover and vote in a primary. In 2000 I voted in the Republican Primary and in 2002 I voted in the Democratic Primary. I am a registered independent but I know several Republicans and Democrats who vote in the others primary when the option on there ballot are not desirable. Voting Republican in the 2006 Primary does not prevent you from voting Democrat in the 2008 Primary and vice-versa.

Secondly, in 2004 more Republicans voted in the Democratic Primary than ever have previously. From speaking to several Republicans (I live in Rural OH) this trend will continue. Many of them like McCain but would rather have an option in the General Election for two candidates they prefer.

Ohio is NOT a red state. Ohio trends Republican because of poor Democratic candidates. When Democrats put up strong candidates they win.

I have not made up my mind on who to vote for yet but I am trending towards Obama. I don't think any polls displayed are accurate because I think most Ohioans like myself will make their decision within a few days of the Primary. Also many of the independent and Republicans crossing over are not accurately displayed in the polling results.

I can tell you Hillary's chief downside in Ohio is NAFTA especially among rural voters she counts on for support. NAFTA and trade are key issues in the rust belt and OH in particular with us losing thousands of jobs.

It will be exciting though to participate in my first primary where Ohioans will have an actual impact on candidates on the federal level. Especially considering MI jumped up to be a Kingmaker/Queenmaker only to have OH ultimately bestow the crown.

[Kahuna]

136. I think she'll actually win Ohio. nt

[cd3dem]

138. This will be the truth test!!!

There should be a rule against open primaries after Super Tuesday!

[apocalypsehow]

139. So, a state that finally "counts". Is that it? Lord, the desperation is palpable.

n/t

[Danger Mouse]

140. I think if Obama loses Ohio but wins Texas...

it will end Hillary.
Hillary needs victory in BOTH for HER to remain viable.

[RL3AO]

141. "No president has ever been elected without winning Ohio."

Is it safe to assume that Ohio has always been held this late and this is the first time in a generation where the nominee has not been decided by the time Ohio votes?

[AtomicKitten]

144. Down to 9 points today. Ooops.

[krkaufman]

145. chuckle! Only Dems are "real voters" is such a great way to expand the party.

It seems pointless, but I'll add, in case no one else has, that your "logic" is flawed. Please forgive the understatement.

"No president has ever been elected without winning Ohio" most certainly doesn't equate to "no politician has ever become President without winning their party's Ohio primary."

Possibly the funniest thing, though, is that your link shows the most recent poll as Clinton now leading by only 9%... so Obama is rapidly gaining ground -- though he has a long way to go in 2 weeks.

[LordJFT]

146. how sour are those grapes?

[THUNDER HANDS]

147. Nixon won Ohio in 1960.

[THUNDER HANDS]

151. And FDR lost it in 1944

[Moh96]

152. as far as I know there has been no polls since yesterday's sweep

[Hutzpa]

154. Enjoy it while it last,

milk it, snort it, drink it, eat it, but remember, judgment day is coming.

[BlackVelvet04]

157. All of us MUST

make phone calls and do anything we can to support Hillary.

I found out tonight my previously republican brother-in-law voted for Hillary in our primary (as did his wife, my sister and my nephew.)

My sister is PISSED OFF at all of the trash and sexist comments thrown at Hillary and she's not one who gets real upset over politics.

[mudesi]

158. I've seen this episode already

Clinton is ahead by X points in state Y, Z days before the election.

It's actually getting quite boring.

[dansolo]

160. And if Hillary doesn't win in OH?

Wouldn't that prove that she isn't a viable candidate? Will you go on the record right now that if Hillary loses OH, that she should drop out of the race?

[Drunken Irishman]

161. You do notice the newest poll has Obama only down 9, right?

[IndianaGreen]

162. You are not reading the polls right. The tracking shows the race is tightening.

Pick on a specific pollster, and see how Hillary is doing now in relation to how she was doing earlier.

For example:

Quinnipiac 11/26 - 12/03 Clinton +26.0

Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 Clinton +21.0

or

SurveyUSA 02/10 - 02/11 Clinton +17.0

SurveyUSA 02/17 - 02/18 Clinton +9.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html#polls

[crispini]

163. Am I reading something correctly from your post upthread?

You seem to be saying that Ohio has same-day party registration, in that if you are unaffiliated, you can just show up in the primary of your choice, and register there, and you are considered a member of that party for the next two years? Am I correct?

Because that's really no different than an open primary. The same people who will be deterred by that likely would not have crossed over anyway. We have the exact same system here, where you can show up on voting day and request the ballot of your choice and you are considered a member of that party for the next two years. The only difference is that we don't require people to actually register; the vote in the primary IS the voter registration for the party. And we're considered an open primary by everyone.

[Hippo_Tron]

166. John Kennedy, Grover Cleveland, and FDR might disagree with your analysis

Democrats have been elected without winning Ohio. No Republican ever has.

[FlyingSquirrel]

168. Not getting traction? CLICK ON YOUR OWN LINK

Feb 6-12, Clinton ahead by 21%
Feb 13, Clinton ahead by 14%
Feb 17-18, Clinton ahead by 9%

If that's not getting traction, (closing gap by 12 points in 12 days) I don't know what is. At that rate, they'll be at a statistical tie four days before March 4.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm you were saying?

[SKKY]

170. She needs to be ahead by 35 or more....

...and that's just to break even.

[democrattotheend]

175. No Republican has won without winning Ohio

JFK won without it in 1960, as did FDR in 1944. But no Republican president has been elected in the past century without winning Ohio.