Can someone confirm? Last night (CNN) it was said that a *huge* number of Repubs voted for Obama

[Mr.Fitzgibbons]

in Wisconsin last night, and the commentators were speculating whether or not this was a "true" vote in the sense that these Republicans would actually vote for him in November. That is what I wonder about -- I am all for crossover voting because I am registered as an Independent, but I worry that these Republicans voting in the primaries are doing it for kicks and are not seriously going to vote for Obama in November.

[babylonsister]

1. CNN is biased, at least imo. I just googled Obama + Wisconsin +

republicans and got no hits. It's possibly someone's pipe dream.

[bigtree]

16. I googled Wisconsin exit poll and got this

62 percent of independents and 70 percent of Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary said they supported Obama's candidacy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/19/exit-polls-obama-continu_n_87475.html

more stuff in the exit poll about Barack . . .

[babylonsister]

19. Hmmm. Link's not loading for me. I'll try later. Does it give actual

numbers of inds. and rethugs that voted?

[bigtree]

46. nope, just what I posted on that

this opened:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/19/exit-polls-obama-continu_n_87475.html

[OzarkDem]

26. Interesting question they should ask

How many of those Independents and GOP'ers would vote for the Dem candidate in the GE?

[CatnHat]

43. you got to be kidding, right

the pundits of GOP are actually supporting Obama, what does that tell you. Yeah, if nothing else, republicans are loyal to their party; and don't forget, if Obama does get the nod, think about the democrats who will just decide to sit it out. There are many.

[Arkana]

28. The key there is "that voted in the Democratic primary."

So all 30 of the Republicans who voted in the Dem primary voted for Obama.

I really do not see what the problem here is.

[dchill]

39. CNN is proud to amplify...

ANYTHING that might be detrimental to the non-Clinton candidate. It's irrelevant, because Obama won among Democrats. But then, irrelevance is CNN's forte.

[surfermaw]

50. Big tree, I heard the same from one of the T.V.Stations

Howevr this isn't a first time, both parties do this trying to get an opponent that is easy to beat, however m any people are tired of the republican party and they may be honest in their votes, we will know in the G.E. when we find out how many republicans vote for the democrat nominee.

[roguevalley]

60. You know, people need to rethink these 'organized' Rovian votes

again. Since 99% of the world isn't on forums and don't know who the hell Carl Rove is, it is reasonable to believe that when people go to vote, they vote for whom they believe in. To believe that a huge portion of an entire state's republicans decided to nullify Hillary and vote for Obama is unreasonable. Even republicans want change.

[Roxy66]

2. I wonder if a lot were just voting against Hillary.

[indimuse]

62. Obama now...McCain ...

GE!

[RoadRage]

3. I think it was a Huge "Percentage" of republican votes went to Obama..

I heard 70% Obama, 30% Clinton.

But, I don't know out of the total vote of 600,000+ were Dem, Ind. or Repub - I don't think they ever said that.

[Chiyo-chichi]

4. I would hazard a guess

that a small number of Republicans voted in the Dem primary, but that of those who did, the vast majority voted for Obama.

It was probably a statistically insignificant percentage of the whole, however.

[robbedvoter]

5. What else is new?

[HeraldSquare212]

6. Some definitely are doing it for kicks, although I don't think they're consistent in which Dem they

vote for. But many are real, I think, and while we may not keep all of them for the GE, this is a great starting position to be in.

[Renew Deal]

7. 70% of 9% of the vote.

Have fun adding that up.

[cali]

10. less than that. That was based on an exit poll that

had him winning by 11%.

[Tesha]

51. Sounds a lot like 6.3% of the vote to me. (NT)

[Lone_Star_Dem]

53. That's his percent of the 9% Republican votes he took. Where as Hillary took 2.7%

We'd need to move the decimals over if we were doing a total percentage of all votes so it would be 0.063 and 0.027 percents of the total votes. Isn't that correct?

[Tesha]

54. No, 70% of 9% is definitely 6.3%.

> We'd need to move the decimals over if we were doing a total percentage
> of all votes so it would be 0.063 and 0.027 percents of the total votes.
> Isn't that correct?

No, 70% of 9% is definitely 6.3%.

The way I read this is that 9% of the voters in the primary were Republicans.
Of those Republicans, 70% voted for Obama.

If I read both of those statements correctly, then...

6.3% of the voters in the primary were Republicans voting for Obama

(0.70 x 0.09 = 0.063 = 6.3%)

And 2.7% of the voters in the primary were Republicans voting for Clinton.

(0.30 x 0.09 = 0.027 = 2.7%)

Tesha

[Lone_Star_Dem]

56. Yep

I just realized my error, which I knew and even posted correctly last night. I was just coming back to post a correction. The split the Republican vote with Hillary getting just at 1/3 and Obama 2/3.

I blame sleep deprivation. I'm not as young as I used to be anymore. :)

Thanks!

[Tesha]

57. None of us are.

> I'm not as young as I used to be anymore. :)

Sady, none of us are. ;)

Tesha

[TheDoorbellRang]

67. Total democratic votes in WI democratic primary = 1,099,661

Obama 646,007; Clinton 452,795; uninstructed 859
9% of these votes are allegedly by Republicans = 98,969

70% of those alleged Republican votes are allegedly for Obama = 69,279
Does this mean the remaining 30% of Republicans voted for Clinton? = 29,691

So we can speculate that some Republicans voted for Obama cuz they just hate Hillary; some voted for Hillary cuz they're afraid Obama's winning; and some maybe voted the way they did because that's the candidate they support.

:shrug:

[shenmue]

8. Oh yeah. Don't forget the 'line-crossers' in the states where you can pull that.

They are throwing off the figures something awful. When November rolls around, they won't be able to do that again, because the party registration lines do apply in the presidential election itself. Suddenly the "big gain" in Wisconsin won't even exist. Does anyone else realize that at all?

[Nederland]

37. You are bad at math

Do the math. Really. Do it. The line-crossers are NOT throwing off the figures.

Obama is just winning and you don't like it.

[cali]

9. Sorry. No. Wrong. It was something like 7%

of the voters were repukes and they went 70% to 30% for Obama.

[UALRBSofL]

58. I think Cali is right, It was 7% from what I remember

And of that Obama got around 70% and Hillary got around 30%

[MethuenProgressive]

11. Obama has a strong Republica base. Too bad we're not going to nominate a Democrat.

DUbamas like letting the MSM, the Republicans, and the Independants choose our nominee.
I'd rather Democrats picked our nominee.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. Dems are choosing. In droves.

[Touchdown]

25. Me too. That's why I'm not for Clinton.

No Repug chooses my candidates for me, especially toe sucking Dick Morris!!!



That was published in 2006 BTW.

[Tesha]

52. We alrerady kicked all the real Democrats out of the race. (NT)

[KittyWampus]

12. have you ever heard of Reagan Democrats? You object to the opposite phenomena?

[carlotta]

13. Don't have the stats for Wisconsin, but

My friend's daughter was an election official in Virginia and she said that in her district, 30% of the votes cast in the Democratic primary came from Republicans.

[JMDEM]

29. Your friend's daughter in one district...

Now there's a scientific sampling...

[DemGa]

15. Dems are going for Hillary; Obama gets the Repug vote

Of course they will not vote Obama in the GE. That's like pinning your hopes on pretty speeches and lofty rhetoric.

What an unmitigated sham.

[cali]

17. Ridiculous. In the last ten BLOWOUTS

he's won the majority of dem votes. Period. Your claim is simply not remotely true.

[Egalia]

24. It is true, before Wisconsin, Hillary led strong in the Dem Vote n/t

[cali]

27. Not in the last 10 states.

He's winning. He's winning among dems now too.

[DemGa]

30. Sorry, it's more than remotely true

Take Wisconson: Obama-sham 58% Hillary 41%

"Another surprising item is the partisan breakdown of the vote. Among Democrats, Obama squeak by Clinton 50% to 49%" But among independents and Republicans he won near 2 to 1.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Hardly a "blowout."

You seriously think these Repugs are going for Obama-sham in the GE? Wow!!

[cali]

45. 17 points is a blowout. How sad that you can't deal

with reality. And Obama sure as hell has a better chance than Hilly. Her campaign in beyond pathetic and half the country detests her, and would climb over broken glass to vote AGAINST her.

You seriously think that someone who runs such a lame campaign and is so hated by Americans is going to win against the repubs. Wow.

[DemGa]

66. Re: Hillary's negatives

How sad that St. Obama and his flock so readily capitalize on years of vicious slander against Hillary -- a clear betrayal to the Democratic party. There was a time not so long ago, when we all would have stood against such things.

And a "movement" based on "hope and change" with hate as its philosophical foundation must surely be destined for failure.

These are painful truths indeed, and give me no pleasure -- unless Hillary and the Dem base can stop this nonsense in TX, PA, and OH, we shall all share in this Obama-Sham.

[Dawgs]

55. What's your point, vote for the candidate that loses Dems, Indys, and Republicans?

There are only two choices and Obama won every group last night.

So, what is your argument?

[LiveLiberally]

20. In WI exit polls, Obama edged Clinton 51-48% among Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/19/dem.polls/?iref=hpmostpop

[Birthmark]

21. And some of the "independents"....

...might not be so independent, either.

But the narrative lives!

[totodeinhere]

22. Can you provide a link to substantiate that Dems are going for Hillary?

Most polls I have seen show a majority of Dems going for Obama.

For instance, this exit poll shows Obama beating Clinton last night by seven points in Wisconsin among Democrats.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4312579&page=1

[thesubstanceofdreams]

18. According to CNN exit poll, 9% of voters were republicans

Even if ALL of them voted for Obama and even if ALL of them did so only to defeat Hillary but plan to vote for McPain in November, Obama STILL won by 8% among the remaining voters.

Because some republicans (30% according to the exit polls) voted for Hillary, and because clearly many are honestly voting for Obama and plan to support him in the GE, it is clear that that AT MOST 2-3 points of the Obama difference can be explained by republicans wanting to mess up.

Since Obama won by 17%, even if you discount the possible messing republicans, it still was a landslide.

[IsItJustMe]

23. There is no doubt in my mind that Republicans are switching over to vote for the Democratic

candidates in this primary. I don't know which candidate is the over all benefactor of this however.

My gut tells me that it is Obama, but I am just going by what I read and my impressions.

Because voting is a private matter, for the most part, I don't believe that we will ever have the statistical analysis needed to come to a firm conclusion, one way or the other.

[electropop]

48. The smart strategery for a Thug would be to vote for Hillary

She is the one McCain can whip, according to the polls.

Trouble is, true Thugs hate McCain, so they don't know what to do.

[Mr.Fitzgibbons]

64. But why are they voting for Obama -- is it a serious vote or is this an attempt to support a weaker

candidate (in their opinion)? I don't know -- it is concerning that the numbers were supposedly so large, though 7% doesn't seem very significant. I suppose though that might be enough to swing things one way or the other.

[asjr]

31. I've been worried about that for some

time. Why are Repubs crossing over to vote for Obama? I believe they think Obama is beatable in November and want him for the nominee. And all this bad-mouthing McCain by "Repubicans" is just a load of bull. The media are going along for the ride and are trying to confuse everyone. Where dirty tricks are concerned the Republicans wrote the book. They will stop at nothing. Hillary Clinton is the Republican nightmare. If Obama is the nominee I hope he wins in a landslide.

[noiretextatique]

32. duh...of course they won't vote for him eom

[Levgreee]

33. So why did 30% of Repubs vote for Hillary?

That's not an insignificant number, there... what are their motives?

[kentuck]

34. I am more inclined to believe that these Republicans...

are not voting as some type of conspiracy for Obama or against Hillary but are actually sincerely turned off by their own Party. I have not heard or read of any "organized" campaign. This is nothing for Republicans to celebrate, imo.

[Independent-Voter]

36. I think you'd be correct. There's big undercurrent for something different theses days

The middle voters are sick and tired of 50%+.00001 politics. Now I know that DU and Freeperland are both tails of the echo chamber, but ignore the middle at your own peril. You absolutely can not win an election without gaining the majority of the unaffiliated votes and some cross-overs.

[loveangelc]

35. I watched CNN all night and didn't see anyone say this, but who cares?

You can't judge why someone voted.

[knowledgeispwr]

38. 70% of 9% of total votes, according to CNN exit polls

so no, not a *huge* number of republicans.

[Infinite Hope]

40. Facts:

Certainly some disgruntled Republicans did vote for Obama. A huge amount? Obviously not. In most states only 3% of those voting in the Democratic primaries/caucuses considered themselves a Republican. Obama got about 2/3 of that.

[truedelphi]

41. Some stats:

Twenty eight per cent of all American voters considered themselves to be Republicans late last year.

Thirty three per cent of all American voters considered themselves to be Democrats.

And a whopping thirty nine percent considered themselves to be Independents.

You'd never know this watching CNN or otehr M$M B.S. dispensers.

Ssh! There's a revolution happening!

[Eurobabe]

42. Why no profile? Who are you?

Thanks for your concern, but if you really want me to take you seriously, it would be better to not hide your profile. It makes you look like a troll. :hi:

[grace0418]

44. There's a ton of snow and insane cold in WI. I don't imagine too many people

would go out and vote just for kicks. There may be a *small* percentage of Repub voters motivated by overwhelming hatred of Hillary to go out and vote for Obama just to see her lose, but it can't be very many.

[Viking12]

49. It wasn't bad yesterday.

It was sunny, about 10 degrees with no wind, and the snow we got on Sunday was all plowed away -- a typical WI winter day. We can handle it.

However, I agree with your main thrust - very few votes were cast just to fuck with the Dem primary.

[Perky]

47. Exits suggest it was about 100,000

but it it difficult to know if they voted for Obama or against Hillary or For Hillary hoping that she will be the nominee against McCain.


I suspect it probably split evenly.

[cooolandrew]

59. If they did this it shows that Hillary was uneectable,, the stats are proving true.

[Riley133]

69. Yeah, I don't think this is Hillary's time. nt

[hfojvt]

61. Soglin seems to think that they are real Obama supporters

http://www.waxingamerica.com/2008/02/understanding-o.html

and also claims that rightwing talk radio is encouraging Republicans to vote for Hillary because a) she's more beatable, and b) she's more centrist.

edit: Soglin is a former mayor of Madison, Wisconsin who ran for Congress in 1996 and lost to Scott Klug for a seat now held by Progressive-Caucus member Tammy Baldwin.

[democrattotheend]

63. They might see Obama as the lesser of two evils

and think that they might not be able to win so they want to at least keep HRC from winning. They might not all vote for him in November, but I don't think there is a mass movement to vote for him because they think he is the weaker candidate. I think if it were the other way around and our nomination fight was all but resolved, a lot of Democrats (maybe not strategic thinkers like us) would be voting for McCain in the GOP primaries because he's at least more tolerable than Romney or Huckabee. In fact, I think a lot of Democrats crossed over to vote for McCain in 2000, because Gore was pretty much a given and Democrats liked McCain better than Bush.

[Straight Shooter]

65. Maybe the Repubs are going for a twofer

Knock out Hillary in the primaries, knock out Obama in the GE.

Good strategy, if that's the motivation. They get to kick the Democrats' ass twice. It's their wet dream of the century.

Ever since Reagan, I don't trust Republicans. After almost 8 years of george bush, they think they can still salvage their party. They'll come around to McCain by the time the GE rolls around, and hope he kicks the bucket and his veep takes over. Repubs have very short and very selective memories.

[Riley133]

68. It's called the Stop Hillary Express and you can get bumper stickers, even. nt