A modest prediction about a campaign on life support.

[cali]

In the next two weeks we'll see Obama catch up in the SD race, and we'll see Hillary's poll numbers fall. I think the tipping point was reached last night. Barring a huge gaffe on Obama's part, either in the debates or on the stump, none of the mud will stick. I know some Clinton supporters insist that the Clinton campaign has been "gentle" with Obama, but that's nonsense. Hillary's a fighter and she's been fighting like hell and playing hardball. And it hasn't done much but hurt her. The Clinton campaign is on life support. Fund raising will suffer and continued speculation about how poorly the campaign is doing will cause further damage. It's difficult to see her being able to strengthen her candidacy in the next 2 weeks. All you have to do is look at past behavior to get a glimpse of the future.


And here's yet another Clinton SD defection. Expect more.


Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 09:13:21 AM PST
this didn't take long to begin!

http://www.bluejersey.com/...

two New Jersey superdelegates said that they would support Barack Obama for President: Donald Norcross, the Co-Chairman of the Camden County Democratic Party, and State Sen. Dana Redd, who had previously backed Hillary Clinton. And several key Clinton supporters in South Jersey have also flipped to Obama, including Senate Majority Leader Steve Sweeney, Democratic County Chairmen James Beach (Camden), Rick Perr (Burlington) and Michael Angelini (Gloucester), Camden Mayor Gwendolyn Faison, and South Jersey Democratic leader George Norcross, one of the state's most powerful political insiders.

This is a net pickup of two super delegates for Obama and a loss of one for Clinton. Also endorsing Obama: State Sen. Fred Madden, and Assemblyman Paul Moriarty. <...>
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/20/12910/5220/238/460481

[grantcart]

1. k and r

[Renew Deal]

2. I wonder if the SD's will start to pile on soon.

Like Feingold?

[terrya]

3. Look...as a Hillary supporter, it doesn't look good right now.

It doesn't.

But I'm getting rather tired of having the "give it up now, loser" message crammed down our throats in here. I still think she has a chance. I know it's not good now. But the "what the fuck is the matter with you, you selfish bitch" thing around here lately is not helping.

[UALRBSofL]

5. terrya, I've been keeping up with the FDP

And the FDP is going to sit the delegates. Hillary will get 210 Florida delegates and the SD as well. So, keep hope alive. Once we get to the convention Hillary will win. :)

[K Gardner]

7. Yeah, good luck with that. This tactic is really nothing to brag about.

[cali]

8. I doubt that Howard Dean

will simply crumble in the face of the FDP. He was my guv for 11 years, and he's a stubborn guy. I also think he's more inclined toward Obama than Clinton. And yes, he has a lot of influence on the credentials committee. If Hillary can't pull off a big win in either OH or TX, she's too damaged to go on.

[Johnny__Motown]

16. Illegitimate, if she does that she will never be anything but Illegitimate

We are tired of lawyers deciding our elections.

[anigbrowl]

19. I want some of what you're smoking

How do you assume that hillary will get 210 delegates for Florida? Even if they are seated, it is not winner-take all.

Florida has 210 delegates.

Going by % vote totals (rather than congressional districts, but I don't think this will alter the outcome radically):

Clinton 50% = 105 delegates
Obama 33% = 70 delegates
Edwards 14% = not sure, might be below 15% minimum threshold or might be 35 delegates.

Well that would be a 35 delegate gain for Clinton, not 210.

Michigan is similar: 168 delegates, 55% for Clinton, 40% for 'Undecided'. Since the undecideds have no other candidate in the race to vote for and those voters already had a chance to vote for Clinton but didn't, then it's reasonable to asume they'll go for Obama. Again using percentages, this would split the delegates 86/64, a net gain of 22 delegates for Clinton.

In other words, if Florida and Michigan are seated, Clinton might make a net gain of 57 delegates. Obama's lead (total delegates, including supers) as of this morning on CNN is 60 delegates. The upshot is that if we started counting MI and FL starting today, Obama would still be in the lead, though by a smaller amount.

By all means keep on hoping for Hillary's success, but don't mislead yourself by using imaginary figures. None of the democratic contests use winner-take-all rules and if you believe that they do then you're just setting yourself up for a big disappointment later.

[cali]

6. I've said nothing of the sort. And I think you know that.

This is simply analysis. I'm not urging her to get out. I honestly believe her chances are now very slim. And her reactions today, and those of her surrogates point to the campaign not having learned anything.

[speedoo]

4. I agree.

I think some SD's are waiting until the next debate. Unless Hillary scores a big debate win, I think we will see maybe a bunch of SD's going to Obama in the day or two following that debate.

[Bonobo]

9. Cali, you still have a big Mea Culpa to make about predictions...

If I remember correctly, you posted about the probable demise of Obama's campaign after NH. Am I wrong?

I like you but... Where's the mea culpa?

[cali]

12. I don't think so.

I did, however, have to eat crow for predicting a big win there for him.

[Bonobo]

14. Come on. It wasn't NH, but I remember you counting Obama pretty much out.

Is your memory okay?

[cali]

17. I definitely felt for a long time that Hillary

would be the nominee, no doubt about that. And my memory's actually pretty good. I just don't recall writing a post about it after NH, but it's true enough that I thought she'd manage it by hook or by crook, until fairly recently.

[NJmaverick]

10. I think many of HRC's Super Delegates

Committed to her, because they thought she was going to be the winner.

[cali]

11. Undoubtedly.

The wise ones didn't sign on with her and waited. Some of them, like my Senator, Pat Leahy, wouldn't think of endorising her. And I do think we'll see that gap nearly erased or better in the next couple of weeks.

[NJmaverick]

18. I would imagine the sooner you sign on the sooner

your potential rewards. So some politicians figured Hillary was a sure thing and wanted to get the best rewards possible.

[LiberalAndProud]

13. Silly me.

For a minute there I thought you were talking about South Dakota ....

[rrk]

15. "Get Real"

It's her new catch phrase. She's probably going to try to make it a zinger in the next debate.

But it's oh-so lame. And here's how Obama counters: "Get real? Your vote for the Iraq war was real. The thousands who have died are real. What's not real are your excuses about why you voted for it. A commander in chief not only needs to have good judgment, but be willing to admit his or her mistakes. You're 0 for 2 in that regard, Hillary. That's what's real."