The continuing Clinton campaign against Obama does not work to weaken him

[Tom Rinaldo]

No matter how harsh the Clinton camp may or may not get, the Republicans will be far harsher. It is almost like getting a flu shot to come up against a weaker form of an attack now to build up anti-bodies against it. That is the real beauty of having both Clinton and Obama go through this prolonged campaign. Whoever comes out on top will be stronger because of it. It is foolish to think that the Clinton people can come up with an attack line against Obama that the Republicans themselves won't be hammering on within weeks of Obama being assured of the nomination if not before.

Take all that stuff about Obama using parts of Patrick's speeches. The Republican Party ran a candidate AGAINST Patrick in 2006. They damn well know what tactics Patrick used to win. They know who Patrick's campaign manager was then, and they know who Obama's campaign manager is now. They have already devoted thousands of hours to studying how Axelrod runs campaigns since they know there is an excellent chance he will be managing one against McCain. Anyone who thinks the Clinton campaign having helped call attention to a possible plagiarism charge against Obama was giving ammunition to the enemy is extremely naive, foolish, or both. It is much better for Obama for this stuff to come out now rather than have it sprung on him in the stretch run of a Presidential election. Let him get his chops in order defending himself before the finals start.

Speaking for myself but I bet for many others also; if Obama continues to hold up under a tough campaign against a tough Hillary Clinton, and comes out of this with a hard earned victory, it will be MUCH easier for me to defend him during the General Election as someone who is ready to take on the incredibly demanding job of President of the United States. And in fact it WILL toughen him up, certainly as a better candidate for President, and maybe even as a President.

Should Obama become our nominee, when people ask, and they WILL ask, "what has Obama accomplished in his life to show that he is skilled enough, tough enough, to negotiate with other heads of state and to act as Commander in Chief of the U.S. Armed Forces?"; I will point to this long and hard fought contest pitting him against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. One of my biggest obstacles to supporting Obama in the first place was the fact that I did not have enough to go on to see how well he rose to an extremely demanding challenge at the national level.

Obama did not have a serious opponent when he ran for the U.S. Senate, and he hasn't faced the voters for reelection to his seat. For me this, here and now, is Obama's most significant test. It does Barack Obama no favors at all to ask that he be treated with kid gloves during this nominating contest. It is how Obama can best show America's voters that he is tough enough for the job of President for him to fight hard against a skilled and determined opponent, and win. The more he has to overcome to do so, the stronger Presidential candidate he can be.

[Arugula Latte]

1. Good post.

Personally, I also admire him for doing an end-run around the entrenched old school Democratic establishment by understanding the tubes of Teh Internets. Politicians like McCain and Clinton don't seem to understand that the old tricks don't work anymore because we've got a giant national conversation going on behind their backs.

[nolabels]

2. Oy mate, bring on the swifty boats

or was that boasts, no matter, we want to rumble with them all :+

[BobRossi]

3. The inner Hillarious comes out.

><

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. And by that you mean.... what? n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. I'm kicking this because it is a serious topic for discussion and...

...I see a whole lot of threads on DU claiming that Clinton is hurting our Party and needs to go away as soon as possible before she "wounds" Obama too much for him to win. I think that is a false argument and this OP says why. And no one on this thread has countered it.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Anyone else who feels more at ease defending Obama...

the more we see his abilty to defend himself? The more fight Obama shows in these primaries the better I can fight for him as our nominee if he wins. Wwhen I think about possibly backing Obama in the fall that's what I keep coming back to for myself.

[woolldog]

7. That's actually a good point.

I'm all for a hotly disputed race. But I don't want to see HRC try to steal the election at the convention with superdelegates or even pledged delegates. And I don't want to see her try to drive his negatives up (which it seems like she's preparing to do) b/c it weakens BOTH democratic candidates. So with that caveat I think its fine for her to stay in the race.

[Sir Jeffrey]

8. I will step in and challenge this premise...

Nobody is asking that Obama be treated with kid gloves in this primary season. All we are asking for is that the Clintons act graciously and accept that they lost. All of this talk that is not over is not based in reality. Obama is not going to lose TX and OH by 20 points. He is still going to win states between now and the end of the season. Clinton is finished, and she needs to step aside because there are more important things at stake than her desire to be president.

The longer they stay in the campaign dredging up attack lines for the Republicans, the easier it will be for John McCain to see what attacks worked and what attacks did not work. Think of it like a massive focus group. Under normal circumstances, McCain would have to test out his own attack strategies during the GE campaign and would have to see which ones work and which ones don't. And with McCain having a significant disadvantage in money, he would have to expend a lot of his limited resources to find out how to destroy someone like Obama. But oh no, the Clintons are taking money from Democratic voters and using it to smear the eventual nominee of the party.

With the Clinton smear machine in full gear during the primary season, all McCain has to do is look at which ones worked and just hammer those attacks harder (and he is saving money to boot). If the Clintons were not smearing Obama, McCain would have to try out his own attack lines and some might work but some might not...and of course you only have a few months to try this shit during the GE. So he is basically getting a free month or so of smearing his opponent, finding out what works and what doesn't, and it is costing him *nothing*.

Meanwhile, Obama has to start out from scratch in his attack plans against McCain. In other words, McCain has a significant advantage granted to him by the Clintons....and whatever you want to attribute this to (hubris, blind eye to failures) the end result is the same: Obama is *still* going to win the nomination.

All of this talk about "toughening up Obama" is just bullshit, quite frankly. He has already beaten the Clinton machine. He has proven his mettle. He has beaten her like a drum. What else does he need to do to prove to people like you that he has what it takes? Are you not impressed that he has out-raised, out-organized, and outfoxed her at every stop except NH this cycle? Are you not impressed that he won WI by the same margin that Clinton won NY? Are you not impressed that he has over 1 million donors? Or that he raised more in January than CLinton and McCain COMBINED?

These candidates have been going on 3 hours of sleep for the past year or so. They need a fucking break. The last thing Obama needs right now is to have someone trying to break his kneecaps right before the finish line.

Actually, that is the last thing our party needs right now too. People were so worried that Obama's supporters wouldn't cross over and vote for Clinton if she won. What is going to happen when Clinton spends the next two weeks dragging Obama into the mud? Are her supporters going to just forget all of this shit and support him in the GE?

And one final point worth mentioning: Alan Keyes may not have been a serious opponent, but Alan Keyes dragged Obama through the mud and ran a very nasty campaign. He insulted him continually through the debates and ran some pretty insane bullshit ads against him personally. After Obama kicked his ass in the election, Keyes never even bothered to call him and congratulate him on his victory. So he has been through a pretty scathing campaign before against a Republican.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. Your "inevitable" theme is insulting

Both delegate totals and popular vote totals show this is still a very close race. If Clinton stops Obama's momentum in both Ohio and Texas all the news stories from the last few weeks about Obama's unbroken string of victories will be out the window. They will be replaced by stories about clinton's amazing ability to battle back and reverse Obama's momentum when it seemed there was no chance to stop him, and then we move on to Pennsylvania with a very different political atmosphere to deal with. We can revisit this question after those primaries. If Hillary loses I will join with you in calling on her to drop out. But right now I don't take kindly to your arrogance.

Obama was never ever in the slightest danger of losing to Keyes so it never mattered what Keyes said about Obama or how or whether Obama reacted to Keyes. Now it matters and Obama damn well better be up to speed if he hopes to represent the Democratic Party against McCain with his thin resume.

[Leopolds Ghost]

14. Yes, but it's true that it's mathematically almost impossible

When you have a single state race, and one candidate is up 5% over the other with 60% of precicts reporting, it is mathematically almost impossible to overcome that deficit unless all the remaining precincts are HUGELY untapped bases of Hillary support.

That's how media projections work.

Which is why you don't have to wait until morning for the media to "call it".
They rely on math. Too bad most folks don't study it or we wouldn't have to endure Chuck Todd's protracted explanations of why, indeed, Obama is almost certain to be the nominee whether we like it or not.

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. Depends on which districts haven't come in yet

There is a reason why reputable networks sometimes hold off on reporting a winner when one candidate is ahead by 5% with 60% of the districts reporting - and no the remaining districts don't have to come in HUGELY for the candidate that is behind, just strongly. But even that is misleading, because at that point all the votes are in, they just haven't all been counted, so shifts in momentum and late breaking developments can't "sway the emotions" of ballots already cast but not as yet tallied. There are plenty of ballots not yet cast.

[Sir Jeffrey]

40. What is insulting to you?

You may not like to hear it, but she is going to lose. I'm not making a value judgment or affecting any sort of tone. Telling yourself that she stands a chance is just getting your hopes up to get crushed.

Go work the delegate math and stop hoping for a Clinton miracle. If the math showed *any* chance of a realistic comeback, I'd agree with you. It doesn't.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. A Pre-Debate Kick n/t

[Leopolds Ghost]

11. Bring on the swiftboats!

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

12. Far harsher?

Seems to me that Clinton and McCain are running the same campaign.

[Independent-Voter]

13. Great post. Obama is going to serve you guys well.

[grantcart]

15. Thank you, with your permission I would like to expand on a couple of your points

To the question of 'legislative accomplishments' a more aggressive answer needs to be established

What were the great legislative accomplishments of JFK - none


What were the great legislative accomplishments of LBJ - rural electrification on and on and on

Who was the better president?


Legislative accomplishments are impossible to judge except for those on the inside. Just because a person has his name on a bill can mean very little. Who was the person that could move people closer together. Where was the measuring stick for that Mr. Matthews?. The fact that republican legislators in Illinois and dem Senators who have known the Clintons for 20 years are endorsing Sen Obama speaks volumes. But it is still largely irrelevent. They are different skill sets. Many great legislators were terrible in trying to engage the popular will outside their area. That is why we have had exactly 2 senators elected as President. It is also why we should send the Republicans a thank you basket full of gin for nominating a senator instead of a govenor.

Mr. Obama did not have a serious Rep opponent in his Senate run. He did defeat strong democrats to get the nomination.

Sen. Obama's hidden weapon is his community organizing background. His voter registration drive in Illinois not only brought in hundreds of thousands of registrations, it was done in a way that it brought them to the polls. He completely reshaped the electoral landscape in Chicago. http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-1993/Vote-of-Confidence/. Regardless of how many consultants and managers he has hired - it is his hand that is behind his winning strategy and 20,000 seat arenas. It is this unique perspective based on his unique community experience that no one can duplicate and no one can plagerize.

Republicans like to say that we are a center right country. Those that vote have voted down the middle in the last two GE. If we did as Bill Maher suggests and went door to door and forced people to vote it would be completely different. If Obama can help bring in 5 million additional voters we will be having posts about the possibility of a 60 seat Senate majority.

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. Good points all of them

Like I said in my OP, the better a fight that Hillary Clinton puts up against Barack Obama now, the easier it will be to fight for Barack Obama later. This campaign for the Democratic nomination IS by far his greatest test in life so far. Passing it will mean a lot for me PRECISELY BECAUSE his opposition is formidable and not willing to fold when the going gets tough. Conversely, I always felt Obama was running for President a little bit too soon although I understand why he made the choice that he did. But if he can not put Hillary Clinton's candidacy away now, if she rallies back and ends this nominating battle with all of the momentum breaking her way, then I honestly think Obama will have fallen short in this his first big national test.

A young Bill Clinton got cocky and lost reelection as governor of Arkansas, he became more skilled a politician because of it. Nixon failed the first time he ran for President. Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush and Al Gore Jr. failed to win their Partie's nominations the first time each of them ran for President All of those men became better politicians and all of them later became President (although Al was prevented from taking office).

Jimmy Carter though went on to win it all the first time he ran. We shall see what is in store now for Barack Obama.

[grantcart]

18. I agree completely but I am no longer sitting on the edge of my

seat. He is not running for president any more he is becoming a president before our eyes. After Wisconsin he gave a great speech but it appeared to me that he was pissed. Pissed in the same way JFK would get pissed with a stupid ploy. When it came to responding to something ridiculous his lips seemed tightened and while the geniality on the outside is sincere there seemed to be a steely interior that is showing.

I remember reading a story about some fantastic young baseball prospect some 20 years ago. On the first play of his first game he made an error. When he got to the bench the Coach told him he did great. The rookie asked what did you mean I muffed the first play. The manager said that he played errorless ball for 78 games before he muffed and could finally sleep at night.

I guessed he muffed somewhere and we didn't see it.

As for your keen observation that defeats have made our candidates better in the long term I pray you are correct;

After an unsuccessful bid for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2000, he announced his campaign for U.S. Senate in 2003.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama

[DUyellow]

25. yeah, i was watching the speech saturday night, He looked pissed then.

[anamandujano]

27. Can't wait until he throws a hissy in front of Putin.

[grantcart]

28. ah yes classy and entirely on point

[DUyellow]

32. um... no, pissed as in determine to win this. not pissed as in crying.

[anamandujano]

19. The problem with your premise Tom, is that the media have trashed

all of Hillary's challenges to Obama, in effect sweeping them under the rug at best, twisting them and turning them against her at worst. She is basically trying to get some information out of him; and as we have been seeing, that is no easy task.

The MSM has bolstered Obama, we all know it's true.

That is why this is not a flu shot, although it's a great analogy.

And see what you get for proposing an olive branch to them, a cry for less of a challenge from Hillary. She's giving the Repukes ideas for their campaign. Gah, whatever she has been saying is so freaking obvious, only his lemmings can't see.

If the media choose to do so (and I'm not so sure the Repukes want to win this time; Obama is Repuke light at best), they can knock him over with a feather.

I have a big problem defending Obama against a Repuke media that has almost completed their mission of outing our best hope.

[grantcart]

33. That's because the challenges evaporated - for example

He's not black enough

He won't be able raise money

He is too intellectual - he won't connect with people

He won't be able to go past Super Tuesday

He is too black

He is too inspirational

He can't win big states.

The media only follows the lines the candidates give them - they are not running for office. They haven't picked up on anything because the Clinton campaign's aim has been so far off.

You have to admit at this point in the campaign the Clinton campaign cannot fix on what their main theme is.

[Thrill]

20. She may actually jump across the table and choke Obama tonight

She has to stop him some how.

[Tom Rinaldo]

23. Unless she managed to permanently incapacitate him however

I don't think that would boost her chances of beating him in the remaining primaries. There's that sympathy vote factor she would have to deal with, lol.

[anamandujano]

24. Maybe he should bring security guards with him. What he really needs

is his speechwriter standing by talking in one of his ears, and Deval Patrick talking in the other ear. Of course they need a little time to collect their thoughts to answer whatever simple question is tossed his way.

She chokes him with her intelligence. He chokes himself over his own words, trying frantically to come up with an answer, running down the clock.

It's rather funny, actually.

[Thrill]

30. The only thing funny

is the pounding he keeps giving her in these primaries

[Tom Rinaldo]

36. Obama is on his own in these debates

That is why they work so well as a rite of passage so to speak. If he comes through them well and wins the upcoming primaries I will feel much more confident about him as our nominee, even if I may still disagree with him on some issues.

[thoughtcrime1984]

21. Well said nt

[FrenchieCat]

22. I find double standards throughout this primary season.......

and they are all practiced by the Clinton Campaign.

1. Hillary Clinton's opponents in both senate runs were jokes. Remember them?
These Hillary opponents were even bigger jokes than was Obama's. At least Obama beat 7 primary candidates to get to Keyes.

2. Hillary had no plan B. Not good. Obama had plan A, B, C, D, Etc.....

3. Obama has had more legislative successes in the U.S. Senate than Hillary has had, but he is called the "empty suit long on rethorics". Hillary "saying" that she has all of this experience doesn't make it so. No one has yet dwelved into the minutia of Hillary's claim of 35 years of experience that she claims.

She knows where the light switches are in the WH; That's not all that. She had no security clearance and sat on no NS meetings.

4. Hillary started out with everything required to win and thus far has not done the best with it.
Obama started out with everything required to lose and thus far has done the best with what he had.

5. If Obama was 0-11 since February 5th, and Hillary was the one with the winning margins that Obama has had, Obama would be a footnote in political history. In fact, if Obama would have come in third in Iowa, he would have been finished right then and there.

Hillary has been given deference, and every other advantages required to win this thing from day one, and she still has not done as well as Obama has considering. That is telling.

Personally, I believe that it should be over....but it won't be.

[grantcart]

29. well you know what they say

Blow back is a bitch lol

[Tom Rinaldo]

31. Rather than go off on many tangents that are discussed a lot elswhere

I'll just address two of your points.

Rudy was supposed to be Hillary's first opponent for the U.S. Senate. Many here in New York do not take Rudy at his word that his health issues kept him out of the race - many think he saw her ahead in the polling (which she was) and decided not to take her on. The second time Hillary ran there wasn't a solid Republican left in New York stupid enough to run against her, she was too popular for them to have any chance of winning.

And the general points I made in my OP roughly work either way for me. If Barack Obama now loses it is because she found a plan B or C or whatever that topped his plan A or B or whatever. If she loses then obviously she won't be our nominee and many will say deservedly so. In some ways I will be one of them.

Here is what I have long believed. Had Clinton won Iowa she would not have been tested the way that she needed to be, nor would she have gonme through the campaign experience she needed in order to put her ship in order for November's contest. If Obama had won New Hampshire he would not have been tested the way that he needed to be, nor would he have gotten as much experience as he needed dealing with National media before the real race began, nor would his supporters have learned how to work so well together for him under fire from day one of the General Election as they now can.

[tishaLA]

37. Re: Your last paragraph...

I think you're somewhat wrong. I think you're right that if Sen Clinton had won Iowa the race would have been over effectively; Sen Obama, had he come in third or even second, would have been an interesting side story, but he would never get the bump that kept him close in NH.I imagine it would have been a slow fizzle, as happened to the Edwards campaign. But Clinton had enough resources to take it to Sen Obama even if he had won NH. I said the other day that her victory might have been the thing that did in her campaign. The rumors before the close of the polls had Clinton firing lots of staff, etc., if she did as poorly as expected. In the long run, because she is saddled with Penn and Wolfson, I think that would have been a mitzvah. Instead, the staff got a stay of execution, but that stay may have been the thing that, depending how this turns out, killed the campaign.

[Tom Rinaldo]

38. You have a good point, but it probably just pushs mine down the road a bit at most

to Nevada. Nevada would have been harder for Clinton to win had she lost New Hampshire. But if Obama won New Hampshire and still lost Nevada, that then would have been his wake up call.

I think it would have gone very badly for Hillary if she started out with a string of losses in Iowa, New Hampshire Nevada and South Carolina. I think it would have proved fatal, but it's ot what happened so it is all speculation. Maybe an earlier staff shake up would have helped her do much better in SC, that is really where Obama built his head of steam up.

[woolldog]

39. Love that post FrenchieCat

except one minor point: I think that if Obama had won one of the "big states" (basically California) on super tuesday this thing would be over. There would be no possible justification for her staying in the race.

[tishaLA]

26. I agree with this and I think Sen Obama has been

really excellent so far. It seems to me that he deals with those distractions and never loses his footing--almost because he deals with them so dismissively. I hope he can continue this against the republicons if he should get the nomination.

[Tom Rinaldo]

34. He has been excellent so far

All national campaigns have some unseemly though effective sides (yes even Obama's) and when they are used against a candidate I support it pisses me off the same way it pisses off Obama's supporters when they see the opposite coming at him I konw, but I realize this is major league hard ball politics being played here. I am glad there are two debates happening and two states that are a real challenge coming up, and two weeks left to see what happens before those primaries take place. If Obama stays on a roll through all of it he fully deserves to be our nominee.

[anigbrowl]

35. This I agree with

although I deplore the personal vitriol in this nomination campaign (and have taken the OP to task for their posting style over it) I agree with this sentiment heartily. It's good that Obama is really having to compete fo the nomination; if he wins it, it will be because he's worked very hard for it. Clinton was the closest thing there could be to an incumbent without actually being one, and a year ago few people would have bet on Obama: many thought the nomination contest would really be about seeing who was going to be Hillary's running mate.

As far as I am concerned, the best thing that happened the Obama campaign since voting began last month was the last-minute defeat in NEw Hampshire. Had Obama won in NH there would have been a great danger of over-confidence. The more momentum he had early on, the greater the (negative) impact the campaign would have suffered when it hit a roadblock. Hitting an electoral bump in the road early posed a stark question to Obama supporters: were they just along for the ride on a bandwagon, or were they willing to double down, even i that meant a painful repeat of defeat in future contests?

Happily, most Obama supporters opted to double down, and at present seem to be reaping the rewards of that decision. But although we're confident, Obama and his campaign are quick to point out that there's much work left to be done - more if he is to win the nomination, more if he is to win the general election, more if he is to get his policy ideas into reality as President.

Meantime, Hillary is a very worthy opponent. And he fact is that the right wing has expected her to run since 2000. They have spent years sharpening their knives for a campaign against her, and chuckling darkly as they contemplate their super-villainy (warning: some portions of this post include irony (tm)). For all their bravado, it seems pretty dispiritng to them to find themselves facing The Man Who Defeated Their Greatest Enemy.

[RememberWellstone]

41. Barack Dukakis

Nothing else to say.