Three Reasons Obama is more likely to beat McCain

[NJmaverick]

1) Iraq, the difference between "I opposed the war" and "the war was a great idea and let's stay there for 100 years" is far greater than, "I voted for the war but was mislead by George Bush".

2) Age, Obama makes McCain looking far older than Hillary does.

3) Obama will not energize McCain's base, like Hillary will. Right now conservatives either don't like McCain or are luke warm toward him. I guarantee you if Hillary wins the nomination they will be energized. They will bust their butts to keep Hillary out of the White House. With Obama many will prefer McCain, but they will have little motive to make it happen.

[AlertLurker]

1. Sigh. Here's all the 'Pukes will say:

1] Unfortunately, not only didn't Barak Hussein Obama oppose the war (unless you count one speech that NO ONE heard), he continued to vote to fund it.
2] Osama Obama looks like he is 13 and the braces have just come off. Shame about the AntiChrist the horns ears, too - probably still wet behind.
3] They will not have to attempt to energise McCain's moderate base, so they will attempt to shamelessly pander to the evangelicals and neo-cons, paleo-cons and so-cons. With a muslim black candidate in opposition, it will be quite simple.

Get it?

This is sure turning out to be a weird race. Anyone predicting ANYTHING at this point is simply full of shit.

[NJmaverick]

3. I get it, they will not have the drive to pull crap like that

If Obama runs; They don't like McCain and they don't care for Obama. If Hillary runs; They hate her and her husband with a passion. They will be motivated to smear her every chance they get. They will do everything in their power to see her defeated. They may not like Obama, but they don't HATE him. That's the difference.

[Iceburg]

10. They have already nailed BO on his patriotism, his lack of experience,

drug use, flip flops etc. The Rezko affair (trial start date March 3rd) will give them a free ride all the way to the GE.

[NJmaverick]

21. Care to count the number of things they have already nailed

The Clintons on?

[TheWraith]

11. Nonsense.

1. Obama will win points on the grounds of supporting the troops but not the policy. And despite the delusions of the Clinton supporters, he's well on the record as having opposed the war from the start.

2. Do you really think that that sort of ridiculous crap is going to get any kind of traction in a year when people are worried about the economy, the war, and security rather than the size of a candidate's ears?

3. If you think the racist vote really overcomes the number of evangelicals and others who are going to stay home because they hate McCain's guts, you're badly mistaken. For that matter, the racists also hate McCain because of his immigration bill.

[AlertLurker]

15. You overestimate the intelligence of the USAmerican voter.

I'm not discriminating or insulting - Canadians aren't any brighter, honestly.

1. He gave ONE SPEECH opposing the war. No one heard it. If he funds it, he supports it.
2. Yes. Cons are nervous about anyone different. If you do not believe that once you have the fear, you can do anything, then you have not been paying attention.
3. Perhaps they do, but he is white. Many will see it this way, and many more will NOT stay home and let a black man win.

You have made somewhat valid points, but there is an element of irrationality in Cons that you cannot begin to appreciate. There's a whole lot of baggage, there.

I hope that you are correct, however.

[TheWraith]

18. He gave a very big speech against the war to a very, very large crowd.

A speech which is on every public record on the planet, practically. Compare that to McCain saying we need to be there another 100 years, and oh yeah we should invade Iran too.

You still wrongly assume that ridiculous crap about his ears can get traction with the general public.

I appreciate the irrationality of the Republicans just fine, but the totally irrational segment only constitutes about 40% of the general public. McCain is welcome to them--we'll take whoever's left over.

[NJmaverick]

20. Alert Lurker- I have been fighting with Cons for over a decade

I know them all too well.

1) The Cons already point to Hillary and Kerry to say EVERYONE got the war wrong, and anyone knocking it know is just playing Monday morning quarterback. They can't do that with Obama, but I am sure they will try. It's just they will not be able to make it stick.

2) They don't fear Obama. In fact many Republicans actually respect him, even if they don't think he should be President.

3) You over estimate the value of racism. It's a tricky card to play, and it's a weapon that gets more difficult to fire and more likely to backfire, with every year.

[cali]

27. Here's what's wrong with your analysis

republicans aren't a homogenous block of voters anymore than dems are. Once you forget that they're actual individuals, you can't possibly make an accurate guess as to what they'll do. You have to break down the republican voters into groups. For instance, a republican voter from Greenwich CT is a different critter than a republican voter from Mississipi. And no, they aren't all racists, believe it or not.

[Iceburg]

23. He lost the "support the troops" rhetoric with this video ...

Video link

[NJmaverick]

28. That link doesn't work

FYI

[Iceburg]

33. Fixed it ...thanks/nt

[NJmaverick]

36. OK, how does that show he doesn't support the troops?

You lost me.

[BzaDem]

41. Here's what's actually wrong with your analysis.

You say

2. Do you really think that that sort of ridiculous crap is going to get any kind of traction in a year when people are worried about the economy, the war, and security rather than the size of a candidate's ears?

That's really the heart of the problem. You think that because YOU are worried about the economy/war/security and therefore find the nasty attacks/lies rediculous, other voters will also find the crap rediculous. Because the world SHOULD be a certain way, it IS a certain way. That's the logical fallacy. We don't live in rational-land. Fear works. No one can say for sure that it will propel McCain to victory for certain, but it certainly will be a factor, as it has been in election after election. It has worked over and over and over again. The attitude that "I think the swiftboating crap is rediculous, therefore the average voter will too" is the reason we keep losing elections; we don't confront the problem head on. We just pretend it doesn't exist.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0208/Obama_not_yet_wise_to_Freak_Show.html

[cali]

24. If anyone predicting anything is full of shit,

what does that make you? Seriously, you're making specific predictions. What is absolutely incontrovertible fact though, is that almost half the country will not vote for Clinton. And we know that because they say so, over and over and over again. Do you actually think they're lying or persuadable?

[jackson_dem]

2. Two of the three are myths, the other is speculation, albeit reasonable

2) Ah, the age card. How is that going to work with seniors, a very influential voting bloc?

3) Myth. The rethugs will show up like they do every year. The idea that rethugs will stay home because they like Obama because of his magic spell is major hogwash. Little motive to make that happen? Obama stands for what Hillary stands for. They will be there to stop it. The msm and rethugs aren't going to hide Obama's beliefs and records, as well as his numerous flip flops, if he is the nominee.

[NJmaverick]

4. I would disagree

Seniors will not be that influenced, that's true. However young voters will be and they are also another important voting block.

3) How did the rethugs show up, when George Sr ran for re-election? If I recall their support for him was similar to McCains, and it hurt Mr. Bush badly.

[jackson_dem]

16. Young voters are a much smaller bloc than seniors

The age card is not only immoral but a political loser.

Bush 41 lost by 5 or 6 points. It wasn't exactly a drubbing in the popular vote. Independents were the key to winning that year.

[TheWraith]

6. You're wrong, and deluded if you think that Obama means the same to the Repub base.

They hate Hillary Clinton with a passion. She's their only chance for retaining the White House.

[jackson_dem]

14. What happened to Kerry, Clinton 92', Gore, and Dukakis?

They will hate any nominee just as Democrats will hate McCain too when this is all over.

Their only chance is Obama and him having no experience in the age of terror. McCain knows it and that is why he is helping Obama with Democratic voters by attacking him as if he were the nominee.

[TheWraith]

19. Clinton won, Gore won, Dukakis self-destructed, and Kerry got edged out by the war voters.

The experience argument goes nowhere against Obama. Clinton already lost on that argument. They have a lot less chance against him than somebody like Clinton who they can characterize as having flip-flopped on the war.

[jackson_dem]

40. Gore is in the White House?

It should have never been close. Three of the four lost and the first one was hated by repubs going back to even 1992...

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. As a senior myself...

I'd much rather have a young energized Obama then that senile old coot McCain.

"Myth. The rethugs will show up like they do every year. The idea that rethugs will stay home because they like Obama because of his magic spell is major hogwash. Little motive to make that happen? Obama stands for what Hillary stands for. They will be there to stop it. The msm and rethugs aren't going to hide Obama's beliefs and records, as well as his numerous flip flops, if he is the nominee."

You wouldn't, by chance, be one of those people who are complaining about republicans voting for Obama in open primaries, would you?

[NJmaverick]

22. The rethugs are motivated by hate

Be it the Clintons, gay marriage or Pro-Choice. Hate is what motivates them, and Obama doesn't generate that emotion like Hillary does. First off Hillary prides herself on being a fighter, that is going to generate hate. Secondly she lacks the charisma, that Obama has, so it's easier to keep hating her.

[DemzRock]

5. Don't forget racism

Sadly, there still tons of racist idiots out there and the GOP base may be energized by this half black, no?

[NOLALady]

8. Racists are usually sexist as well.

Equal opportunity hate.

[hayu_lol]

9. You guys need to hope with a capital H that the repubs...

who crossed over in our open primaries will stay with our party in November. My hunch is that they will vote Repug just as most of them always have.

There is much potential disaster off in the future.

[TheWraith]

12. No, there's much effort to imagine a possible disaster. Actual disaster, not so much.

People need to get over the paranoia from 2004 and realize that this year is different.

[GarbagemanLB]

13. Sexism is much worse than racism. nt

[TheWraith]

17. I'm not sure that either would make a difference in this case.

The sexists and racists already vote for the other party.

But Hillary motivates a lot more Republicans and right-wing nutjobs than any other candidate. If we were talking about Kathleen Sebelius for President, Republican motivation would be a non-issue.

[NJmaverick]

26. How on earth can you make a statement like that?!?!?!

That's like saying it was worse that Hitler killed the gays and the gypsies than when he killed the Jews. It makes no sense. Bigotry is equally bad, no matter what group the hatred is directed at.

[mohc]

29. I think they are saying

That sexism is more prevalent, not that being sexist is worse than racism. That said, I would still disagree with the statement.

[NJmaverick]

31. That would make more sense, but I agree with you

I don't see one being any more prevalent than the other.

[NJmaverick]

25. An energized base and the majority of the independents

That's the formula for victory and that is what Obama has.

[Recursion]

34. Why do you care?

My hunch is that they will vote Repug just as most of them always have.

Then in that case, we lose whether our nominee is named Clinton or Obama. So why do you care?

[Perry Logan]

30. Also, Obama is a new face. People are sick of the familiar crowd.

[NJmaverick]

32. That's true, with the majority of the Country feeling it's going

in the wrong direction- NEW=GOOD

[cottonseed]

35. McCain is running for Bush's (19%) 3rd Term

People are done with that. Repubs will have to run a campaign so vicious to even attempt to beat Obama they'll completely destroy the their own party. Turning our backs on that sort of garbage is part of this "change" that everyone is talking about.

[LadyVT]

37. Because you want him to. Come on, admit it! :)

1) Yeah, he didn't vote, however, and he has admitted he doesn't know how he would've voted, and has, since then, voted every single time to give more money to fun the war.

2 This is ageism. This will only matter if the 18-29 years olds who are also ageist also vote en masse. On the flip side, Obama looks far less experienced than McCain does.

3) Well, we don't know who will energize McCain's base. Obama has spoken quite well to Democrats about Democratic values all Democrats share. They are contrary to the values of many, many Republicans. Republicans may want change, but they are more likely to want the Supreme Court on their side to overturn Roe vs. Wade, and the separation of Church and State to be blurred, and much more funding to the military than Democrats do. These are basic value differences, and for many people, they are more important than "change."

[NJmaverick]

38. I am proud to say I support Obama

That doesn't make my points any less valid.

1) It still makes a difference

2) It's also reality. The job of president is a strenuous one. We have seen it take it's physical toll on Presidents, time and time again. McCain is not only old, but he is not all that healthy. I seriously doubt he has the physical ability to handle the demands of the job. Think about it, some jobs have manditory retirement ages for a reason.

3) If you ever have dealt with right wingers, you know what energizes them. Nothing gets them going, than the name Clinton.

[ncteechur]

39. 1. McCain, 2. McCain, 3. McCain