Bill Clinton: Hillary must win Ohio and Texas

[anigbrowl]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/20/686166.aspx
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Bill Clinton just said this about his wife's campaign while in Texas: "If she wins in Texas and Ohio, she'll be the nominee. If she doesn't, I don't think she can be. It's all on you."
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(That's all there is at the page, unless you want to read the comments)

I don't know if it was an unguarded or a planned statement, but I think it's fair to assume bill Clinton knows what he's talking about. Unless Hillary publicly repudiates his statement or something in the meantime, then it looks like the 'line in the sand' has been drawn for March 4th. Should Obama triumph on that day, the Clinton campaign will call it quits.

OK, this is pretty much what everyone who's not a total partisan has been saying already (total partisans have been saying she should get out today or that she should never quit, depending on who they support), but I feel that hearing it from Bill makes it 'official'.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. Texas and Ohio don't matter. Rhode Island and Vermont are her firewalls.

[sniffa]

4. Don't be silly

It's all about Puerto Rico now. It's winner takes all.

[Debi]

12. I'm so confused - is Puerto Rico 'automatic' or 'super'?

Does it count or is it a firewall?

God I need a :beer:

[yourguide]

34. No no no, Puerto Rico is her firewall n/t

n/t

[Debi]

35. Read down-thread

From what Bi-Baby found Puerto Rico doesn't look Clinton friendly. x( Looks like it's Denver or bust!

[tekisui]

2. Nice to have it in writing from a Clinton.

[rodeodance]

25. been a LONG time since anyone has said something positve about a Clinton. HOPE reigns high.

[NightWatcher]

3. what will he say after Texas? Obama's getting close with 2 weeks to go

[marshall]

5. It can be parsed to mean whatever he wants it to mean

It might seem like an ultimatum now, but depending on margins of victory and back room promises from pledged delegates it can be wiggled out of later.

[XemaSab]

6. Depends on what the definition of "wins" is

n/t

[DJ13]

7. No Bill. Just a win wont do it anymore

If Hillary cant get well over 60% its still over.

Enjoy your extended vacation Bill.

Oh, and stop being buds with the Bush's.

[cali]

8. If only I believed him

but I don't. They'll just move the goal posts again.

[adabfree]

Yep

[Debi]

14. Yep - it's all about Wyoming, Indiana and Guam!

She'll stop Obama in Guam!

[bicentennial_baby]

17. Wyoming doesn't count...

They have caucuses. x(

[Debi]

18. Damn

:banghead:

Then Oregon...that's it...Oregon will be her firewall (I just realized that Puerto Rico doesn't count either x()

Why is Guam 'other'? :shrug:


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

[bicentennial_baby]

24. It's called a Territorial Convention:

"Saturday 3 May 2008 (tentative date): A Territorial Convention made up of all interested voters meets to choose 6 of Guam's 11 delegates to the Democratic National Convention (together representing 3 of Guam's 9 delegate votes at the National Convention).

* Each of these 6 pledged delegates will only cast ½ (or 0.5) of a vote on the floor of the Democratic National Convention.

The remaining 5 delegates (representing Guam's remaining 5 delegate votes) are Unpledged PLEOs who will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".

* This territory's Democratic Member of Congress (Territorial Delegate Madeleine Z. Bordallo) (=a non-voting Delegate in the House of Representatives); the territorial Delegate is an "Unpledged PLEO" and casts 1 delegate vote.
* This territory's 4 Democratic National Committee members: each of these territorial DNC members casts 1 vote apiece for a total of 4 delegate votes."

Also, Puerto Rico might count....I've heard that it's winner take all.

[Debi]

28. It sounds kinda like a caucus -

I guess maybe Guam doesn't count either?

Puerto Rico looks like a proportional delegate selection process:

http://www.prideintheparty.org/pdf/PR.pdf

But I'm so damn confused...I don't think I count any more! :crazy:

[bicentennial_baby]

29. I found this:

Updated on 2/13/07: Puerto Rico's Governor Anibal Acevedo-Vila has endorsed Barack Obama for president. This obviously reduces toward zero the chance that Puerto Rico will produce a unanimous delegation for Hillary Clinton. Other Puerto Rico politicians of Acevedo-Vila's Popular Democratic Party and the opposition New Progressive Party have been seen as leaning to Clinton; it will be interesting to see where they end up.

The following thought occurred to me while preparing for my stint on Fox News on Super Tuesday evening. The Democratic nomination may be determined by the delegation from Puerto Rico.

The delegates will be chosen, technically at least, in a caucus in early June. Puerto Rico has 63 delegates to the Democratic convention, more than similarly sized South Carolina (54), Oklahoma (45), or Connecticut (60). The Democrats, in line with their traditions of welcoming and celebrating minorities, have long given Puerto Rico about as many delegates as it would get if it were a state, while the Republicans long gave it only a few delegates and today give it somewhat fewer delegates proportionately.

But one group of 63 delegates is more equal than another. Democratic delegates are supposed to be allocated by proportional representation. But that notion is alien to highly competitive Puerto Rican politics. In practice, the dominant figure in Puerto Rico identifying with the Democratic Party has seen to it that his faction gets all the territory’s delegates. This was true of Govs. Carlos Romero Barcelo and Pedro Rosello of the New Progressive Party (PNP) as well as Gov. Rafael Hernandez Colon of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD). PPD politicians almost always identify with mainland Democrats (an exception was Sila Calderón, governor from 2000 to 2004, who identified with neither party and concentrated, successfully, on persuading Congress and the Bush administration to close the artillery range on Vieques Island). It’s not clear to me at this distance whether the current governor, Aníbal Acevedo of the PPD, will have similar clout. He’s at odds with Rosello, and the legislature is in the hands of the PNP. But if Acevedo doesn’t determine who gets Puerto Rico’s 63 votes, someone else will. And they aren’t likely to be proportionately distributed.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/2/6/puerto-rican-poll-power.html

[Debi]

33. Ohhhh, so it's a caucus but not a caucus!

So it counts. (except that Governor Acevedo-Vila supports Obama...so it doesn't count?)

Okay...face it...the MSM just want to go to Puerto Rico....for that fact alone...it counts....x(

Thanks for the info!

[Starbucks Anarchist]

39. No, it's going all the way to Krypton.

[Az_lefty]

9. one of the few honest statements he's made during this whole campaign

I'll be a dime to a dollar that Hillary's campaign repudiates this statement within 24 hours.

[geiger]

10. lowering expectations, to enable a "graceful" exit.

It's going to be a rout. He knows it; we all know it.

[anigbrowl]

16. I don't...

I think the Obama campaign has a good chance to win in Texas and to fight Clinton a draw in Ohio...IF people continue to put the work in and campaign hard for Obama. We've seen what the result of overconfidence is, so we should be wary of screwing it up. The Clinton campaign has strong political skills and I won't count them out until they announce their candidate is quitting. Even then, the Obama campaign should plan ahead to the contests beyond, and not make the same mistake the Clinton campaign did about Super Tuesday.

[geiger]

38. agreed

[loveangelc]

26. a rout for whom?

[Avalux]

11. Not just win Bill; win by 65% or more.

It's all on who anyway? Her supporters? :shrug: Wow.

[matcom]

13. Bill Clinton: Hillary Must Win Wisconsin and Virginia

and Illinois and Missouri

ok...

Hillary Must Win Georgia and South Carolina

um....

[Debi]

15. Who let you out of the Lounge? n/t

[matcom]

19. Midlo fell asleep

I snuck out with her boxed whine ;)

[Debi]

20. And took TeenMidlo for a drive?

x(

Naughty naughty Matcom!

[matcom]

30. right

"drive"

[Debi]

31. I am SO telling on you! n/t

[Midlodemocrat]

36. Doofus. I was at a concert.

SOME people like refinement. Others, not so much. :eyes:

[ingac70]

21. Not only win them...

but win them by huge margins.... not going to happen.

[loveangelc]

22. wow it's almost like he's close to conceding.

[Arkana]

23. He's effectively positioned the dagger right over the heart of her campaign.

If she doesn't win(and not just win. She has to win DECISIVELY) both Texas and Ohio, in it goes.

[shadowknows69]

27. Can we get that in writing Bill?

[karynnj]

32. Bill Clinton looked awful here - I just saw it

He looked extremely tired and his face extremely red.

[Thrill]

37. I think they better put the muzzle on Billy