The Press Knew Obama Would Win Big In Feb, But Still Treated it as HUGE NEWS - cjr

[NashVegas]

By Gal Beckerman Wed 13 Feb 2008 12:42 PM

As soon as Super Duper Tuesday turned into Normal Everyday Wednesday, the conventional wisdom going forward was that Obama was going to sweep through the next month with a series of wins. The way the calendar was configured, the states holding contests were just demographically more favorable to him, heavy with the demographics that comprise his base.

If you don’t believe me, look at what the blogs were saying. This was Noam Scheiber at The Plank at around one in the morning last Tuesday, a few hour after the polls closed:

…I figured I should just say a few words about what’s likely to happen in the coming weeks, and why a lot of us think it favors Obama. The next round of contests, slated for Saturday, includes Louisiana, Washington state, Nebraska, and the Virgin Islands. Louisiana is going to be nearly 50 percent African American, Nebraska and Washington are caucuses, which Obama dominated tonight, and the Virgin Islands are the Virgin Islands. (Though, if I must, I think people give Obama the advantage there for demographic reasons, too.) The next day is Maine, also a caucus, and then one week from last night is Virginia, Maryland, DC—all expected to favor Obama demographically. The Tuesday after that brings Hawaii—Obama’s native state—and Wisconsin, which should also be friendly territory for Obama…. Between his near-certain money advantage, the momentum he’ll pick up from the intervening contests, and the fact that he tends to do pretty well in states where he has time to campaign, I think you have to give him the overall edge going forward.

I found dozens of other examples of pundits and savvy bloggers expressing exactly the same sentiment: Obama was going to rack up win after win in the next month.

more ...

http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/obama_sells_his_narrative_1.php

[DUyellow]

1. 33% avg win for the last 10... nobody thought that would happen

[Blarch]

15. I did.

I live in Illinois and told my wife 2 years ago that there would be a calling, and Obama would answer the call, he will run and his light will become so bright that the others will be blinded.

Most people who want to run for the WH announce they are running, and then put out a call for supporters. Obama wasn't planning on running, till he heard the call put out by the people.

And here we are. I called this back when he was saying he wouldn't run.

[GarbagemanLB]

2. Blame wins on caucuses, check. Blame wins on blacks, check. Blame wins on the 'upper class', check..

now let's blame it on the media! :rofl:

[Arugula Latte]

6. You forgot latte sippers ...

and Poland. ;)

[Exilednight]

14. Check

[stahbrett]

3. Show me the links to the predictions of the blowout victories

"I think you have to give him the overall edge" does not mean "winning big".

And just because he's predicted to win does not mean it's not news when he wins.

[bunnies]

4. Newsflash: 10 landslides in a row IS huge news. nt

[karynnj]

5. Consider that this was true partially because there were

many very good HRC states were included in SuperTuesday including the whole NYC area.

[scheming daemons]

7. You're right.... it is NOT big news any more when Obama creams Clinton...

...it's commonplace...... kind of like "Dog bites man".


Now... when Hillary wins a state ("if"), it will be big news. Because she's the only candidate left in the race in either party that hasn't won a damn thing since February 5th. Even Huckabee has won since Super Tuesday.

[ORDem]

16. LOL! Kick n/t

:kick:

[stray cat]

8. Polling data doesn't win elections - votes do and are news

[grantcart]

9. Well they know that he is going to get the nomination but they still

play along and will treat that as a big shock as well.

[stillcool]

18. that is so not a given...

with our experience over the last 7 years, nothing is a given. I think the 'media' has been shocked by all this more than anyone.

[grantcart]

19. you are true but it is a lot more given than the OPs idiotic

premise which is tht it isnt big news because we 'knew' it was going to be true. I was attempting to be sardonic

[RunningFromCongress]

10. most were saying 6 of 10, maybe 7 of 10...no one saw this huge month coming

[Occam Bandage]

11. 10 double-digit landslides in a row is huge news, whether you saw it coming or not.

[zulchzulu]

12. I agree. They shouldn't report any news on the election until Hillary wins...

:sarcasm:

Whine, whine, whine...

[ORDem]

17. Exactly. News stories that are pro-Obama don't "count" n/t

[JVS]

13. I'm not winning any of those, it' no news. waaaaaahhhhhh