Clinton's comeback plan

[jackson_dem]

Here is the strongest part and something Dems need to wake up and realize. The real world doesn't think voting present part-time qualifies you to defend the nation. Primaries are one thing; the general is the real enchilada. Voting for Obama would require a gut check on the part of many voters...McCain recognizes this and that is why he has been going after Obama for a week because that helps Obama with Democratic primary voters, thereby increasing the odds McCain will draw the one candidate who gives him a fighting chance of winning.

-snip-

5. Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) emergence means national security will be the key issue of 2008. With McCain going on the attack against Obama as an inexperienced and naive politician when it comes to national security, Penn argued that Democrats need to think long and hard about whether Obama can match resumes and credentials with McCain on national security matters. "The Republican nominee has extensive credibility in this area and the Democrat needs to be able to be commander-in-chief," said Penn, adding that Clinton's service on the Armed Services Committee as well as the fact she has visited more than 80 foreign countries makes her the far stronger choice. He derided Obama as a "candidate with relatively no experience on national security and limited time in the United States Senate." This argument is an extension of the "risk" argument that drew so much criticism earlier in the race. That is, the Clinton campaign is asking voters to take a hard look at whether they feel comfortable with someone who has spent just a few years in the Senate as president. The answer to date has been a resounding yes, but things in politics can change at the drop of a hat.

1. Neither candidate will emerge from the primary fight with the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Ickes, a consummate party insider, insisted that if the race plays out as expected (Clinton victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania) it is impossible for either candidate to secure the nomination on the strength of pledged delegates alone. "When this whole process is over on the 7th of June, both candidates will need a number of automatic delegates to clinch the nomination," Ickes said. " We believe Mrs. Clinton will be able to get those." Ickes' theory presumes that superdelegates will resist calls to vote as their districts or states voted and instead make up their minds independent of what their constituents decide. It also presumes that superdelegates won't begin moving en masse to Obama as he looks more and more like the inevitable nominee.

3. Debates Matter. The Clinton campaign has been clamoring for more debates with Obama and even used his unwillingness to debate her in Wisconsin in television ads (unsuccessfully as it turned out.) But, over the next 13 days the two candidates will face off twice -- tomorrow in Austin and next Tuesday in Cleveland. These will be the second and third head-to-head debates between the two Democrats; the first one, in Los Angeles on Feb. 1, struck The Fix as something of a draw, but the Clinton campaign clearly felt they got the better of the exchanges. The two upcoming nationally televised debates represent Clinton's best chance to change the fundamental dynamics of the race. For those skeptics who dismiss the idea that debates can change things, we need only point you to the Philadelphia debate in late October; Clinton's inability to give a straight answer to whether she supported a plan to give illegal immigrants driver's licenses set off a series of negative stories that turned this race from a coronation into a contest. Can Clinton score a similar blow sometimes over the next six days?

4. Obama is the frontrunner = more scrutiny. For the first we can remember, Ickes referred to the Illinois senator as the "frontrunner" in the race for the party's nomination. "Mr. Obama is the frontrunner," said Ickes. "There will be increased scrutiny on him and his ability to be president." Later in the call, Wolfson greatly expanded on this idea, arguing that the recent charges of Obama lifting speech lines from Gov. Deval Patrick (Mass.), further revelations into his relationship with "indicted political fixer" Tony Rezko and questions over Obama's commitment to campaign finance reform are all the result of that increased scrutiny. The Clinton campaign has to hope that the media turns the full force of its investigative powers on Obama over the next 13 days and that something previously unknown -- and damaging -- is unearthed. None of the laundry list of charges from Wolfson rises to the level of damaging at the moment -- with the possible exception of Obama's relationship with Rezko. Still, it seems as though if there were a hidden landmind that could potentially end Obama's candidacy, it would have been surfaced by now. A corollary of this argument is that Obama has not faced a serious Republican opponent in his brief career in federal office, having crushed former ambassador Alan Keyes in his lone general election race in 2004. "Senator Obama has not faced a credible Republican challenge of any kind," asserted Penn. Clinton, on the other hand, has run -- albeit briefly -- against former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and then Rep. Rick Lazio in her 2000 Senate campaign, opponents that tested her, according to Wolfson, and proved her mettle as a candidate.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/clintons_blueprint.html?nav=rss_email/components

[GodlessBiker]

1. One thing. Rick Lazio did not "test her" in 2000. He was sacrificial

after Giuliani dropped out of the running because of his cancer.

[merci_me]

2. Kind of like Alan Keyes? n/t

[Cameron27]

3. Yep

[americanstranger]

5. Bingo. 'Little Ricky' Lazio was a hack.

Dumb as dirt, that one was. His home town is two towns over from mine, and I saw his special brand of stupid up close.

I could have beaten him in that Senate race.

- as

[Cameron27]

7. And a hamster could have beaten Alan Keyes.

[americanstranger]

9. But Clinton's team is making the claim that Lazio 'tested' her.

I'm here to tell you that it was no contest. Lazio never stood a chance or mounted a credible challenge, period.

Why must everything be a fricken tit-for-tat around here?

- as

[jackson_dem]

15. Based on what? He was competitive in the polls and fundraising until he blew it at the end

[jackson_dem]

10. False

They were in a dead heat in the summer and Lazio was competitive (single digits) until a debate gaffe right before the election. Did Keyes ever break 33%?

[GarbagemanLB]

4. Yeah, experience....Laura Bush has almost as much experience as her.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. I thought she'd be ready from day one, why then a comeback plan?

"5. Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) emergence means national security will be the key issue of 2008. With McCain going on the attack against Obama as an inexperienced and naive politician when it comes to national security, Penn argued that Democrats need to think long and hard about whether Obama can match resumes and credentials with McCain on national security matters. "The Republican nominee has extensive credibility in this area and the Democrat needs to be able to be commander-in-chief," said Penn, adding that Clinton's service on the Armed Services Committee as well as the fact she has visited more than 80 foreign countries makes her the far stronger choice. He derided Obama as a "candidate with relatively no experience on national security and limited time in the United States Senate." This argument is an extension of the "risk" argument that drew so much criticism earlier in the race. That is, the Clinton campaign is asking voters to take a hard look at whether they feel comfortable with someone who has spent just a few years in the Senate as president. The answer to date has been a resounding yes, but things in politics can change at the drop of a hat."

Yet we've lost 3,967 Americans thanks to the foriegn policy decisions of Clinton and McCain. Which would indicate Obama is stronger on both foriegn policy and national security.

"1. Neither candidate will emerge from the primary fight with the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Ickes, a consummate party insider, insisted that if the race plays out as expected (Clinton victories in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania) it is impossible for either candidate to secure the nomination on the strength of pledged delegates alone. "When this whole process is over on the 7th of June, both candidates will need a number of automatic delegates to clinch the nomination," Ickes said. " We believe Mrs. Clinton will be able to get those." Ickes' theory presumes that superdelegates will resist calls to vote as their districts or states voted and instead make up their minds independent of what their constituents decide. It also presumes that superdelegates won't begin moving en masse to Obama as he looks more and more like the inevitable nominee."

I've no idea how to respond here except to add the emphasis.

"3. Debates Matter."

Unless somebody commmits a major gaffe, they're not going to matter any more than the other 18 debates.

"4. Obama is the frontrunner = more scrutiny."

Are the Clintons still running with the idea that this plagiarism thing is helping them?

[hogwyld]

8. One thing you don't take into account on this

Is that the country is in the midst of a "domestic first" mood. I think a lot of people are tired of expending blood and treasure around the world when we have so many problems to solve here. People want to fix America first, before we go back to policing the world. Security fears are way down the list of importance.

[BlackVelvet04]

13. You might want to tell Obama that....

or open your eyes to his plans. " We should expand our ground forces by adding 65,000 soldiers to the army and 27,000 marines.


I will not hesitate to use force, unilaterally if necessary, to protect the American people or our vital interests whenever we are attacked or imminently threatened.


We must also consider using military force in circumstances beyond self-defense in order to provide for the common security that underpins global stability -- to support friends, participate in stability and reconstruction operations, or confront mass atrocities.


Success in Afghanistan is still possible, but only if we act quickly, judiciously, and decisively. We should pursue an integrated strategy that reinforces our troops in Afghanistan and works to remove the limitations placed by some NATO allies on their forces.


To defeat al Qaeda, I will build a twenty-first-century military and twenty-first-century partnerships as strong as the anticommunist alliance that won the Cold War to stay on the offense everywhere from Djibouti to Kandahar.


We need to invest in building capable, democratic states that can establish healthy and educated communities, develop markets, and generate wealth.


As president, I will double our annual investment in meeting these challenges to $50 billion by 2012 and ensure that those new resources are directed toward worthwhile goals.

http://www.pierretristam.com/Bobst/07/wf070607a.htm

[ORDem]

11. This line of reasoning is so hilarious...

3. Debates Matter. The Clinton campaign has been clamoring for more debates with Obama and even used his unwillingness to debate her in Wisconsin in television ads (unsuccessfully as it turned out.)

- Unsuccessfully? I'd say it backfired big-time.

But, over the next 13 days the two candidates will face off twice -- tomorrow in Austin and next Tuesday in Cleveland. These will be the second and third head-to-head debates between the two Democrats; the first one, in Los Angeles on Feb. 1, struck The Fix as something of a draw, but the Clinton campaign clearly felt they got the better of the exchanges.

- got the better of the exchanges? Oh yeah, tell us Hillary how's that been workin' for ya?

The two upcoming nationally televised debates represent Clinton's best chance to change the fundamental dynamics of the race.

- here's your fundamental dynamic : 10 straight blowout losses.

For those skeptics who dismiss the idea that debates can change things, we need only point you to the Philadelphia debate in late October; Clinton's inability to give a straight answer to whether she supported a plan to give illegal immigrants driver's licenses set off a series of negative stories that turned this race from a coronation into a contest.

- oh I get it, Clinton's the one who makes the big gaffes, so that means ... oh, forget it, this is all just too funny!

:dem:

[Tennessee Gal]

12. Good post.

Thank you, Jackson.

[jackson_dem]

16. You're welcome. One may not agree with the entire memo but it makes many legit points

This is not over by any means...

[Cheeseburger Walrus]

14. Washington insiders...

and a plan of attack that sounds as though it were written on the back of a children's menu in broken crayon.