If Obama wins in TX, but loses OH --- does that still seal the deal?

[RiverStone]

Bill Clinton said today Hillary must win both states.

Is a Texas win alone enough to give Obama the nomination? :shrug:

[Johnny__Motown]

1. Yes, for anyone who is reasonable. Maybe not Hillary

[tammywammy]

2. Hillary needs to win all three by big

Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[Thrill]

3. They'll put the muzzle on Billy

[Renew Deal]

4. I think so.

Obama just has to hold his own on March 4. As long as Hillary doesn't make progress, the clock runs out. There's a limited number of delegates.

[Zhade]

18. Well, until she tries to steal it by cheating, of course.

NT!

[BeyondGeography]

5. Big Doggie is right

Lose either one and she's done.

[nomorewhopper]

6. Yes

unless a backroom deal steals the election, a win in either state (barring an unprecedented collapse that results in 95-0% blowouts) is the nail in the coffin

[Warren Stupidity]

7. Clinton needs huge wins in both states,

I believe the analysis is 65% or so. The worst case is Texas where their complicated allocating of delegates to districts may favor Obama even if Clinton wins the popular vote. At this point, given the last few weeks of big Obama victories, it is hard to imagine she is going to pull this off.

[NJSecularist]

8. I think if Hillary wins Ohio but loses Texas by a small margin

That gives her enough incentive to move on to Pennsylvania.

[sandnsea]

9. She has to win both, with 60-65%

And win PA and several others with the same margin.

[RiverStone]

11. Regardless of OH...Obama is surging in TX

Most polls have them statistically tied down there.

And reports on the ground suggest early voting is in unprecedented numbers. This time (unlike in CA.) early voters may be breaking for Obama. Thats just anecdotal evidence - no proof of course.

I would not be surprised if he loses OH by 6-8%; though I do think he will win TX by at least 5%.

Just another political junkie guess... :)

[stahbrett]

10. It's all about the math... and she needs to average 58% of the remaining delegates

At least that's what I gather. Not super-delegates - the regular ones. If she averages winning 58% of the remaining delegates in the remaining 15-16 states (and Obama is favored heavily in some of them, so that means that the percentage goes up in the states that she does win), then she'll wind up roughly tied with Obama in regular delegates.

They (the Clinton campaign) know that this is impossible.

Here is their hope (no pun intended) - have a winning streak in terms of popular vote totals in Ohio, Texas, and PA, plus maybe a few more. She will still be behind in delegates, but if she can finish close, she'll argue that she won big states like OH, NY, and CA, and she's the stronger challenger to face McCain.

It's very unlikely, of course, but it's their Hail Mary play - that and hoping that Obama self-destructs somehow.

[quantass]

13. Exactly...You message text says everytihng. --- She NEEDS to always win BIG

If she wins TX or OH by only a tiny margin then its pretty much over for Hilary...And gawd forbid she lose one of those (funny, because currently Obama is tied with her in TX and recall that as Obama is given more time to campaign anywhere he destroys her -- and we have 2 weeks left before voting begins -- not including early votes)

As i see things, i think it is virtually a done deal and Obama is the Prez elect.
stahbrett says it well that an unexpected miracle has to happen for her to win at this point

[Moh96]

12. the Deal was sealed last night but if she looses both this wont seal the deal for her either

[quantass]

14. Your title is contradictory

[Moh96]

17. in everyone's mind it is a sealed deal in her mind it is not

[Exilednight]

15. Obama doesn't even need to win - he just needs to close the gap and evenly split the delegates.

[Yael]

16. Mathematically, she needs 55-60% in both TX and OH but

I think her fate was sealed last night.