Obama supporters, don't get cocky. Hillary supporters, don't despair.

[FlyingSquirrel]

It's very nearly over - but not over yet.

Here are the hard cold facts now:

Pledged Delegates:

Obama 1178, Clinton 1025

Hillary's latest strategy has been to say that if she can come within 30-50 delegates of Obama, the Superdelegates should vote their conscience. Obama's campaign been saying that if he finishes 80-100 delegates ahead, it's a clear lead and the SD's should respect the will of the voters.

If MI and FL were included, Hillary could pick up somewhere between 50-55 delegates.

My best case scenario estimates for Clinton show the following:

Ohio (141 Delegates) Clinton 53%, Obama 38%, Undecided/other 9%
Texas (193 Delegates) Clinton 51%, Obama 43%, Undecided/other 7%
Rhode Island (21 Delegates) Clinton 36%, Obama 28%, Undecided/other 36%
Vermont (15 Delegates) Clinton 47%, Obama 41%, Undecided/other 12%

Continuing best case scenario (i.e. discounting most recent polls showing Obama closing the gap, and giving Clinton 50% of Undecided/other votes to Obama's 40%, leaving 10% of undecided for Other candidates) yields the following:

OH - Obama 59 Delegates, Clinton 81 Delegates
TX - Obama 88 Delegates, Clinton 104 Delegates
RI - Obama 9 Delegates, Clinton 11 Delegates
VT - Obama 7 Delegates, Clinton 8 Delegates

Total Pledged Delegates as of March 4: Obama 1341, Clinton 1229

Moving on to PA. Best case for Hillary, I give her 60% to Obama's 40%.

PA - Obama 60 Delegates, Clinton 91 Delegates.

Remaining states:

Red states I give 52% Obama, 48% Clinton
Swing states I give 51% Clinton, 49% Obama
Blue state I give 52% Clinton, 48% Obama

Red states: WY, MS, IN, WV, MT, SD (166 Delegates combined) - Obama 86, Clinton 80
Swing states: Guam, NC, KY, P.R. (192 Delegates combined) - Obama 94, Clinton 98
Blue state: OR (48 Delegates) - Obama 23, Clinton 25

-----

FINAL TALLY, BEST CASE SCENARIO for Clinton:

Obama 1604, Clinton 1523

This is a gap of 82 Pledged Delegates and is a BEST CASE SCENARIO. All roses for Hillary.

What this means is that even if Clinton succeeded in seating MI and FL, she would still be behind by approximately 30 PD's.

If she could not succeed in seating them, Obama wins the argument. He has the 80+ lead and the remaining superdelegates will most likely side with him in the numbers necessary (if above numbers were correct, combined with current Superdelegate totals, he would need 65% of the currently uncommitted SD's to vote for him).

If she DID succeed in seating them, however, now the odds would be in her favor. She would have reached her goal of closing the gap to within 30-50 PD's, and could make her case for the SD's to disregard this lead as statistically meaningless, that the caucus system was flawed, she won the important states, whatever - and that the superdelegates should "vote their conscience". This could very well lead to her final victory.

Having said all this, once again I must say that the odds are very much against the second scenario ever coming to pass. The odds are in fact very much against the first scenario coming to pass as well - with Obama's current momentum and following trends in Red, Swing and Blue states, he should in fact end up with a lead of 115 or more - which would still give him a comfortable lead even counting MI and FL (and the odds of that happening are also very slim).

So no, it's not over - but pretty close. For those hoping for a HRC victory, you might want to bookmark this so you can keep track of how she's doing compared to what she needs to do.

[dailykoff]

1. Barring assassination, it's over.

And even that didn't put Humphrey in the WH.

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Hey, I told you not to get cocky!

:P

[Blue State Bandit]

3. Hope you don't mind...

I'm going to take a copy of this to my viewing party tomorrow night.

I think it would help to build the suspense in the room.

[FlyingSquirrel]

4. Sure, feel free. :-)

[dailykoff]

5. No I'm not feeling cocky, I'm feeling worried

Why the hell is Hilly still in this thing? She's hemmoraging money, she's losing support, she's making a laughing stock of herself, why?

IMHO she either thinks she's clearing a path for 2012 or she's paying off her neocon backers whose second choice is McCain by doing his dirty work for him.

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. Because she still has a Superdelegate lead of about 70, and she's not

mathematically eliminated. And because she's wanted this most of her life. If she can maintain a lead of at least 60 in the SD count and also get MI/FL counted (or perhaps new primaries in those states and do fairly well) then by the end of the primary season she could be just about tied with Obama for overall delegates, and then the remaining superdelegates would have a tough decision ahead of them.

I have a feeling that after March 4 there may be a growing chorus within the party for her to end the campaign. But if she does well enough on the 4th she may stay in till PA. This is a hard one to let go of and as long as she's not mathematically eliminated I don't think she will.

[Johnny__Motown]

7. So if everything comes up roses for Hillary she will lose by 30 PDs = Despair

If she does manipulate the FL and MI delegates into being seated and is still behind I can't believe that the SDs will flock to her. They should run from her.

It is over, your own math proves it.

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. But if she's still ahead by 60 superdelegates, she'd be ahead by 30 total.

So that's the thing. If Obama has nearly caught up in superdelegates by then, I would say there's no chance.

[Perry Logan]

8. I disagree. It's OK to be cocky and confident. It will do you no harm.

Liberals always worry about getting overconfident, and we are always warning one another against it. But overconfidence is rarely a problem for us. In general, it's better to enjoy yourself when things are going well.