A fact about remaining delegates that you may not know

[thesubstanceofdreams]

There is this huge talk about TX, OH or PA, how important they are and how they are Hillary's last and best chance to come back in the race. Fair enough, they are the states with the most delegates still to vote. All 3 together, they have 492 pledged delegates.

But this is what you may not have heard. There are still many other small states to vote (some not so small, like NC). The majority of them favor Barack Obama. Obama has carried many of these smaller states in a landslide, picking a substantial delegate difference. All of these smaller states combined (including democrats abroad and Puerto Rico, since they allocate delegates), make a total of 492 pledged delegates. Yes, exactly the same number as TX, OH and PA.

What this means is that any possible Hillary victories in TX, OH or PA will most likely not be enough to make up losses in these smaller primaries yet to come, and that's before she has any chance of erasing the current advantage Obama has in pledged delegates (about 160).

As you can see, Hillary needs nothing less than a landslide and a blowout in TX and OH to simply have a chance of making the race close.

This analysis doesn't include super delegates, for two reasons. Once is that, no matter what Hillary says, it's highly unlikely a majority of superdelegates will support the candidate with fewer pledged delegates. The second reason is that the superdelegate race is getting closer by the day, so a 50%/50% split at the end of the race is a reasonable assumption.

[dkf]

1. Very interesting...thank you.

[quantass]

2. Good Job OP -- and For More Math Breakdown Check this out...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4692905&mesg_id=4692905">DU: A little bit of math

[paperbag_ princess]

3. unless something happens that changes the momentum

people are lemmings....many choose their candidate based on who appears to be winning..who is getting the most positive press etc...

If she can do well enough to change the media perception then who knows? Elections are never static.

I personally think it is an uphill battle, but I am rooting for her.

[BringBigDogBack]

4. Good post.

[llm]

5. the press

They focus on what they want you to see at that moment.It is up to us to put the facts together.

[Yossariant]

6. The confusion of the muddled masses. The RULE is that they need 2025 delegates to

win the nomination.

All the rest of the "figuring" is kinda masturbatory.

[LiberalFighter]

7. What is not considered is that each race is different.

"it's highly unlikely a majority of superdelegates will support the candidate with fewer pledged delegates"

That assumption has been based on past presidential races having a clear cut winner towards the end.