Clinton perhaps regaining frontrunner mantle??-now leads Gallup tracking poll

[Tropics_Dude83]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are now tied in national Democratic presidential preferences, based on Feb. 18-20 Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

The latest three-day average finds Clinton favored by 45% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters and Obama by 44%. Gallup interviews from Feb. 19, the first day following Obama's strong win in Tuesday's Wisconsin primary, do not show an increase in Obama's support that some might have expected as a result.


The former first lady has still got to be considered the dominant frontrunner and as Senator Obama stated, she is favored to win "every single contest".

[hogwyld]

1. It's all over now... n/t

[demokatgurrl]

2. Link? n/t

[Tropics_Dude83]

3. http://www.gallup.com n/t

[Abacus]

4. .

[Skoods]

5. I don't really understand these polls...

How can people 5% of people change their mind in a day?

It's all crap.

[goodgd_yall]

10. You need to look at them more as trends

and not as precise measurements. The trend is Obama moving down a bit and Clinton support moving up. But this is among Democrats and people leaning Democrat, mind you.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

11. It's an opinion poll.

It's rife with experimental error. Notice the margin of error. It's a dead heat.

[mohc]

12. Well

First it only requires 3% to change their mind to make a 6 point swing, 3 away from one and added to the other. Second, as with all polls like this one, there is a MoE which well exceeds 3%. And lastly, people are far more fickle than we here like to think.

[Tropics_Dude83]

8. This race is still Clinton's to lose

Reports of her demise have been greatly exaggerated. Why?

1) She has leads in Texas and Ohio
2) She leads the delegate count with Michigan and Florida seated, which they will be, regardless of the merits of the issue.
3) They are essentially tied in the delegate count. Around 75 delegates seperates them. They are also essentially tied in the tracking polls.
4) The Michelle patriotism and Obama plagiarism memes have been damaging to the Obama campaign perhaps more than was thought.

Obama still has a good chance but all of the above factors still point to a Clinton nomination and she is nowhere near out of this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Disagree

I think Hillary is a 3-1 or 4-1 underdog but so was Muhammad Ali when he knocked George Foreman on his ass...

I do wonder if the plagiarism and patriotism meme is having an impact...

[BeyondGeography]

42. Of course, Ali was winning the whole fight before he finished him off

mostly because Foreman had completely miscalculated and fought the wrong fight. He went for the early KO and had nothing left when it didn't happen by Feb. 5...err, make that by the 6th or 7th round.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Actually, Ali Lost Many Of The First Eight Rounds Because He Was On The Ropes Absorbing Foreman's

Blows...

Then when Big George blew his wad, Ali dropped him:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kf64ZCYVcEI&feature=related

[BeyondGeography]

47. Wrong

==Scorecards in rounds: Zach Clayton 4-2-1 Ali, Nourridine Adalla 3-0-4 Ali, and James Taylor 4-1-2 Ali==

http://www.boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?human_id=180&cat=boxer

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. I'm Watching The Fight On YouTube

The courage he had is amazing...I'm cringing thirty five years later watching Foreman's lunging shots...

[BeyondGeography]

54. Good for you...The Thrilla is even better...two fighters doing absolutely everything right

and just about killing themselves in the process.

Thank God for Youtube. Those fights were on closed circuit back in the day (as you know) and I never saw them until much later.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. In The Foreman Fight Ali Wanted To Carry Him For A Few Rounds And Make Him Look Silly But He Was

Afraid Foreman Would Get A Second Wind...

[BeyondGeography]

60. Can't believe how he finished those rounds off in that fight

which is probably why the judges were scoring it for him. Foreman would pound him for two minutes and Ali would end it in a flurry.

Frazier was doing color commentary on that fight and he was taking notes for Manila. Ali tried to fight the same way against him but Joe was ready. However, As Eddie Futch put it, "my guy's 5'10" and he fought a perfect fight, but so did Ali, and he's 6'4"."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. It Would Have Been Funny If Ali Started Dancing Around Foreman For The Ninth, Tenth , And Eleventh

Round And Watch Foreman Drop From Exhaustion...

But I suspect Ali was tired too... Enough of those punches had landed...

As for the Thrilla In Manilla it was a great fight but I am hopelessly biased in favor of Ali...And by then Ali was fighting mostly flat footed...

[ShortnFiery]

52. "when Big George blew his wad" - how eloquent! One correction: Obama is ALI

Your heroine, HRC best go "balls to the wall" in the near future because I'm afraid that she's already "blew her wad" ... on so many levels. :evilgrin:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

65. Would You Like If I Said Foreman Shot His Bolt Better?

~

[MadBadger]

19. Obama is the frontrunner. This is not Clinton's to lose.

[rodeodance]

33. for once I agree--It IS Obama's to lose.

[cali]

29. let's deconstruct.

You don't know what will happen with Michigan and Florida. They may be seated but it may not be in the configuration in which voters voted.

Her leads in Texas and Ohio have been dramatically reduced.

She's behind in the delegate count and would have to have big victories to catch up. In addition, he's closing the SD gap. She's had defections and very few new endorsements.

He's had some significant union endorsements- Teamsters, SEIU and United to Win. They will help in Ohio and PA.

She has financial difficulties.

No matter how it's spun she's behind in the delegate count.

There is no sign yet that the Obama campaign has been damaged.

Her campaign is in disarray with a brand new campaign manager who has to settle in.

It's now his to lose. It could happen, but he's the frontrunner. She has to pull off big wins in Ohio and Texas, and that's very unlikely.

[goodgd_yall]

44. There is a sign that POSSIBLY his campaign has been damaged

and that is possibly the reason for the result in the latest Gallup poll. http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

[cali]

63. way too early to call that a sign.. n/t

[rodeodance]

31. gawd--things are tight.

[not_too_L8]

67. some polls state otherwise

Rasmussen Daily tracking now has Obama at 46% and Clinton at41%

Rasmussen Markets Show 18.0% Chance of Clinton as Democratic Nominee.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[smalll]

15. GOMAMA!

Yes She Can!
Stick that in your iPods and smoke it, Obamatrons!

[rodeodance]

35. ~YES, WE CAN~~~YES WE CAN~~YES WE CAN~~

[grantcart]

25. Here is the latest

[goodgd_yall]

40. That's not the latest

Go here:http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

[grantcart]

57. your right hmm wonder how I screwed tht up lol

[goodgd_yall]

59. No problem

I've posted a couple of faux pas this week too.

[rodeodance]

41. THAT Is from feb 17.

[Danieljay]

6. coughs and mumbles bullshit..... n/t

[MadBadger]

7. You know, you shouldnt make up your own headlines.

She hasnt regained her mantle as the front runner. And anybody can tell these Gallup poll do not mean shit. There was a six point swing in favor of Clinton the day of the Wisco Primary, and what does Obama do? Win it by 17. Concentrate on the state by state vote totals, that's all that matters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. You Are Comparing Apples With Oranges

The universe of WI voters is much smaller than the universe of nat'l voters...

That being said, I find the results interesting...

[goodgd_yall]

17. It's not "all that matters"

It's another type of measurement. This one is among Democrats nationally. It's clear Hillary still is looked on favorably by her own party. It's Republicans and independents that seem to be so fond of Obama.

[MadBadger]

20. You mean Hillary is looked on favorably by her own party, and all three categories are fond of Obama

[goodgd_yall]

34. People who identify with the Democratic platform

really like Hillary.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Am Surprised At How Volatile This Race Has Become

I suspect there might be some movement in state polls as well because it's he same universe of voters...

[Tropics_Dude83]

14. Noticeable drop after Obama gaffes of this week n/t

[MadBadger]

26. Then why did his lead gain four the day before?

[ShortnFiery]

18. The thread title is "a lie" - Can we say that 44% to 45% is a statistical dead heat?

There's nothing to low ... no lie too shameless? :(

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I Think Tropic Dude Is An Obama Supporter But I'll Let Him Speak For Himself

Some folks like to intelligently discuss the race...Some folks just like to make puerile comments...Much to my utter dismay you have fallen into the latter group...

[ShortnFiery]

49. Bitterness does not become you. Doesn't matter who, a statistical dead heat is not "a lead"

There's LIES, DAMN LIES, and STATISTICAL POLLING DATA. :evilgrin:

[loveangelc]

21. Ok I don't think either is gaining or losing 4 and 5 % of voters in a day.

i dont really trust daily tracking polls.

[Tropics_Dude83]

24. My belief that Clinton is still the odds-on favourite to beat Obama stands though n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. How?

Even if she wins TX, OH, PN, KY, WV, and PR Obama will have a delegate lead...

I think if she pulls the hat trick and wins all those states she guarantees a place on the ticket or a Democratic loss in the Fall if that's not to occur...

[Tropics_Dude83]

22. I agree...the title was a bit too much/have changed it n/t

[mohc]

23. So we're still playing the expectations game?

Ok gotcha, I must have picked up the wrong playbook because mine says gloat like a moron.

[RaleighNCDUer]

27. Well, Bill has been keeping his mouth shut recently. nt

[scheming daemons]

28. Tropics dude.... This is the only poll with those numbers.... its called an "outlier"....

...relax.

(if you really are an Obama supporter).

[Barack_America]

30. These polls are fluctuating wildly...

That tells me that there's some sampling error here.

[Tropics_Dude83]

36. I do strongly support Obama and have since February 2007

The Illinois statehouse annoucement was something to behold. But it's a bit worrying to go from a 49-42 lead on Monday to a 45-44 deficit on Thursday in the same week. I'd rather be ahead than behind. The Obama plagarism and patriotism memes were pounded this week and gallup shows some conerning movement. I can't believe people are so fickle as to care about those two stories.

Clinton's TX/OH leads concern me somewhat as well.

If Obama bounces into a 5 point lead again tommorow though, then I will relax.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Patriotism Is The Holy Grail Of American Politics

Even if you question America's greatness it makes no sense to do so in a political context...

[texas_indy]

43. Latinos make up about 33% of Texas population. Obama will win popular vote and delegates here (nt)

[BigDaddy44]

37. Polls don't matter

Its all about delegates. Poll data from anyone in a state that already held a caucus or election is useless.

[texas_indy]

39. The only polls that matter are the ones where states have not yet voted for nominee.

The polls which include voters from the states where the vote is over are meaningless at this point.

GOBAMA! Bringing Texas to Obama!

[rosetta627]

46. Only if she cheats

Which I wouldn't put past her.

[rodeodance]

50. nothing to back you say---just making smearing comments. shameful

[rosetta627]

70. Ok, just to make you happy...

HRC ran in the MI and FL primaries, unopposed by Obama, after saying she wouldn't run there.
Now she is making noises about entitlement to those ill gotten delagates.

That would be cheating.

Again, I would not put it past her given what I've seen of her antics.

[LadyVT]

48. thank you!

[thoughtcrime1984]

53. Polls are based on such small samples, they are constantly moving

All I have seen is that he is winning state after state, by large margins, but Hillary is still the presumptive nominee? At this point, I am not buying that.

[book_worm]

55. these daily tracking polls are nonsense they constantly fluctuate back and forth.

[NJSecularist]

56. Obama is the frontrunner

And a poll by a company with a checkered track record this primary season does not to change that.

And besides, national polls mean nil right now. We are not having a national primary on March 4, we are having a 4 state primary.

Obama is the odds on front runner. Tropics_dude, as an Obama supporter, why say otherwise? Why do you time and time again try to doubt Obama's legitimacy?

[Beausoir]

61. Uh oh! No wonder all the calls for Clinton to quit.

[jackson_dem]

62. Plagiarismgate and Michelle Obama's patriotism "issue" seem to have hurt Obama

[not_too_L8]

68. Again

Rasmussen Daily tracking now has Obama at 46% and Clinton at41%

Rasmussen Markets Show 18.0% Chance of Clinton as Democratic Nominee.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ele...

[jackson_dem]

69. Gallup's more reliable

Rass actually had Edwards tied nationally with Obama after Iowa, we know how that turned out.

[kristopher]

66. If you believe Hillary is leading then make yourself some money!!

The people betting money on the race are split about 81% to 19% in Obama's favor.

If you're right, you'll make a bundle.

Now personally, I wouldn't put my money against Obama, but hey, you have that Gallup poll. Go for it.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/#