Clinton leads in Pennsyvlania 44-32. Clinton ties McCain in PA, Obama loses by 1

[jackson_dem]

This is a good sign. Despite two weeks of msm coronation of Obama she retains a double digit lead in Pennsylvania, something she could not do in Wisconsin and Texas. This suggests some fundamental strength in this blue-collar state.

Hillary has higher favorable ratings than Obama (62 versus 57%). Clinton leads McCain by 1 in a general election matchup while Obama trails by 1.

Crosstabs

Men: O 39, H 38
Women: H 48, O 28

Hillary leads among all age groups and has an 18 point lead among those 55 and older.

Income

Less than 35k: H 52, O 23
35-75k: H 47, O 32
75k or more: O 39, H 37

Whites: H 47, O 28
Nonwhites: O 55, H 25

Obama leads Philadelpha by only 9. If he is to win Pennsylvania he needs a big win in Philadelphia.

Versus McCain Hillary cleans his clock among working folks but loses the affluent. Obama runs even with McCain among all income groups, another sign of his struggles with the blue-collar base of the party, although he offsets it by strength among the affluent.

For all the furor over Ed Rendell's statement, Obama gets 39% of the white vote against McCain. Hillary gets 43%, not a meaningful difference. On the flip side Hillary runs one point better with minorities and holds McCain down three more points with minorities than Obama does.

Obama gets 18% of the rethug vote but Hillary gets almost as much at 16%. Hillary gets more Democratic support, not surprisingly, 73% versus only 63% for Obama. Hill loses "other" 51-37 while Obama wins 47-45. This highlights the other side of Obamacons. He doesn't get as many Democratic votes as Hillary does. In Pennsylvania the gains Obama currently makes with rethugs and independents is offset by him bleeding one-seventh of the Democratic base Hill has.

http://www.wgal.com/download/2008/0220/15357472.pdf

[MadBadger]

1. Clinton 44(+4), Obama 32 (+12)

[jackson_dem]

3. I bet Obama wakes up each day and thanks the msm for kicking John Edwards out

[NJSecularist]

5. I bet Obama wakes up each day and thanks Joe Trippi for screwing up another campaign again

[scheming daemons]

7. He wakes up everyday and thanks Edwards for doing him a huge favor...

...Dropping out a week before Super Tuesday was an implicit endorsement of Obama by Edwards.

[jackson_dem]

36. No. Edwards didn't want to play kingmaker. He endorsed the voters

By leaving before Super Tuesday the voters, not Edwards, will decide it. If he stayed even just for Super Tuesday he would have had 200-300 delegates and would have decided it. That would have been better for him but it would hurt the party if one man decided the nomination.

At the time it was unclear where his votes would go. After he left we now know almost all of them went to Obama but the data on that was conflicting at the time he left. In fact Edwards had cost Hillary a chance of winning in South Carolina right before dropping out by splitting the white vote (Edwards actually won the white vote there with 40% but got only 1% of the black vote). If Obama barely won South Carolina or lost it things would have been a lot different on Super Tuesday. By having two white candidates split 76% of the white vote it locked up the win for the one black candidate who, yes, like Jesse Jackson (there is no other analogue to Obama's win), won 78% of the black vote.

[scheming daemons]

56. Don't kid yourself.... Edwards' internals showed him which way his voters would go....

..he knew that the bulk of his supporters were strongly anti-Hillary.

[Yael]

72. I can see him waking up every morning and thanking God for Mark Penn

:P

[ericgtr]

14. Yep

and once he actually starts campaigning there (aka packing stadiums) we can look for that to tighten up in short order. This is the trend we've seen in every one of the last 10 states, once he sets his sites on it these polls change dramatically.

[Divernan]

64. I hear the theme from Jaws, and picture a snorkeler paddling along.

Y'all know that sharks attack from below. The shark darts up from the depths and the snorkeler never knows he's coming. Those charts from each state showing what happens to Clinton's lead as soon as Obama's ground troops arrive remind me of a shark's trajectory.

But now that we've seen that pattern - of Clinton's numbers paddling along at the same rate, and Obama's numbers shooting up to overtake her - in the last 10 or so races - we have every confidence that the pattern will repeat here in Pennsylvania.

[NJSecularist]

2. This is good news?

She's up 12 points with about a month and a half until the primary. She was up about 25 points in the last poll.

Give it a rest. Obama is chipping into the lead like he has every other state.

She better worry about winning Texas and Ohio first. Because Pennsylvania won't matter if she doesn't win both of those states.

[PresidentObama]

6. A strong lead? Great news!

Of course Obama is closing the gap...

1. The contest is getting closer, a lot of times the poll numbers get closer when that happens.
2. He just won how many contests in a row? His poll numbers are going to rise, duh.

A solid lead in PA is still great news for Hillary. And I'm sure she'll be able to maintain it when she wins Texas and Ohio, and stops Obama's momentum in those two states.

[NJSecularist]

11. A 12 point lead in a primary that is 45 days away is a solid lead?

In that case, Obama should have packed it on Super Tuesday. He would have lost all 22 states.

Some of you are really grasping at straws.

[PresidentObama]

22. And some of you are grasping at straws to show Obama winning in states he's behind in.

I love the "he hasn't even stepped foot there" line. That one is classic, as if he suddenly walks into the state and his poll numbers go through the roof. Look, I think Ohio and Texas look good for Senator Clinton. If she wins both states, this race goes in the air. And from there, Hillary still has this impressive lead in PA. The only way I can see Obama closing the gap in PA is by winning TX and OH.

So Clinton has to maintain her lead in OH, TX, and PA. While Obama has to win TX and OH to gain the momentum to take PA, and then chop down the gap in PA to win it. Too many are counting Senator Clinton out, when she's ahead in the next three big delegate rich states. And add her lead in the polls in Rhode Island, and she's in a decently good position. I suggest you stop trying to nail the coffin shut in her non-existent coffin, and wait and see what happens.

I'd be nuts if I tried to predict the winner of this thing! The nomination is very much in the air. If this is the fourth quarter, Senator Obama's walking in with the lead. But never count the Senator of New York out. This is like the Superbowl all over again.

Nevermind that my team lost ;)

[stahbrett]

19. It's actually called a "soft" lead, the exact opposite of a strong lead (nt)

[rodeodance]

25. :-)

[Alhena]

8. There are almost 7 weeks between Texas and Pennsylvania

too long for Hilllary's liking.

[PresidentObama]

12. Not if she's able to win Texas, and throw this whole race in the air!

Hillary's just got to maintain her lead in OH, TX, and PA.

Obama has the task of winning Texas and Ohio first, then chopping down the strong lead in PA to win it.

[scheming daemons]

23. She has to do more than "maintain" her lead.... she needs blowouts....

The delegate math is against her.

A 53-47 type win in Texas or Ohio doesn't help her. She can't make up the delegate deficit unless she wins by 25 points or more in each state.


If Obama loses by single digits in Texas and Ohio... there's no way Hillary can overtake him in delegates before the convention.

[NJSecularist]

28. ROFLMAO

If Obama wins both Texas and Ohio, Hillary is done. There will be no Pennsylvania primary.

You're in denial if you think otherwise.

[PresidentObama]

30. I suggest you not spin my words. Thanks!

[NJSecularist]

41. You said that even if Hillary lost both Texas and Ohio

There would be a Pennsylvania primary to fall back on.

Your words!

And you're wrong. If she loses both Texas and Ohio, she's done! There will be no Pennsylvania primary for her to save herself.

[PresidentObama]

47. No, not my words. Stop spinning my words.

I said Obama has to win TX and OH to have the momentum to win PA.

Those were my words.

But nice try!

[NJSecularist]

58. Bull!

If Hillary loses either of those states, it will be Obama who has the momentum.

She needs to win both states to go on to PA. If she loses either of them, she has no chance.

[KAZ]

68. I'm sorry, but you're just not getting it. NJS isn't spinning anything.

[scheming daemons]

4. Obama cut the gap in half in PA and he hasn't set foot there yet....

...thanks for the good news, Jackson!


Give him six weeks to set up camp in PA with his practically unlimited funds, and PA turns hard for Obama.


Wow... this poll is incredibly good news for Obama.

[PresidentObama]

9. Wait and see what happens in Texas and Ohio. A strong lead for HC in PA isn't great news for Obama.

Nice spin, tough!

[ProSense]

13. Losing significant ground is good news for Hillary? n/t

[PresidentObama]

27. Spin, spin, spin. First off, quit the spin.

Second off, Obama just won how many contests? And the race is closely coming up. Of course the gap is closing, but she's still ahead by 12 points.

Obama has to win two states, TX and OH, to have the momentum to chop down her leads in PA.

And guess whose ahead in TX and OH?

Senator Clinton.

All I'm suggesting is quit dancing on her non-existent grave, and wait and see!!

[NJSecularist]

35. Closely coming up?

It's on April 22 for fuck sakes! Almost 60 days away!

[PresidentObama]

50. Do you like to nit pick or what?

[cali]

48. nope. you're wrong. He doesn't have to win either

He just has to keep it close and I suspect he'll take RI and I know he'll win VT by at least 20+ pts. She has to win by a double digit margin in both Ohio and TX. She could do it, but at this time it doesn't look promising. And if she loses either TX- which is tied up right now or OH, she's in a very bad place.

[ProSense]

52. "Of course the gap is closing, but she's still ahead by 12 points." She's losing ground!

That's not spin, spin, spin! It's a fact!

[NJSecularist]

16. Well, let's see what happens in Texas and Ohio...

... wait, we already did. He's in a dead heat with Hillary in Texas and is within single digits in Ohio. Before ever stepping in either state.

[scheming daemons]

17. A 25-pt lead became a 12-pt lead without any campaigning in PA at all yet?

Watch the trend-lines....

Hillary had a 22-point lead in Wisconsin a month ago... and we all saw what happened there.


Once the Obaminator sets up camp in a state, the numbers move dramatically in his favor. Every time.


He doesn't have to WIN Ohio, Texas, and PA... he just has to come close. Hillary can't make up the delegate deficit with close wins.... she needs 65%-35% blowouts.

[jackson_dem]

26. Her 22 point lead became a double digit deficit in Wisconsin after Super Tuesday and 2/12

The same has not happened in Pennsylvania or Ohio.

25 to 12. 13 points. That is about where Edwards was polling in Pennsylvania.

[NJSecularist]

45. Wisconsin was not 2 months away after Super Tuesday

It was 2 weeks away.

Nice spin, though.

[COFoothills]

10. I don't see how this is good news for Hillary???

What it says is that Obama has cut her lead in half in a very short period of time and without even campaigning in PA yet.

Doesn't matter anyways. This thing is over after Ohio and Texas. Pennsylvania won't even be a factor.

[jackson_dem]

21. That is because of Edwards. The good news for her is she hasn't hemorrhaged in PA

At this point that is good news for her. She did in Wisconsin and Texas. Ohio is still holding up well and Pennsylvania is probably more like Ohio than the other two.

Most of Obama's gain comes from the same way he gained suddenly everywhere before Super Tuesday: Edwards. Does he have another 12 points in him? Who knows? It is too early to tell. He does close the gap when he campaigns and blitzes states with advertisements. Still, at this point with all the msm hype about the coronation a double digit lead is still good news for her.

[scheming daemons]

31. You have it backwards.....

Hillary's number was 44 and has stayed at 44.

She had all the name recognition. That 44 is her ceiling. She won't peel off any more.... all the people that might vote for her already were in her camp.

Any time an "incumbent" has less than 50%... and make no mistake, with her name recognition, she's the defacto "incumbent" in this race... it is a danger zone.


Her number is flat..... and it is below 50%. Obama's number is rising fast. Almost all undecideds usually break for the challenger.


And finally.... Obama doesnt need to win Ohio, Texas, or PA.... all he has to do is keep it close. Since none of them are winner-take-all, Hillary needs to get 60%+ and hold Obama to less than 40% to cut into his delegate lead in any significant way.

[COFoothills]

40. Absolutely correct.

Good analysis.

[jackson_dem]

60. Campaigns don't matter?

She was also at 16% in Iowa early in 2007 and wound up in a dead heat with Obama in Iowa prior to the second round of voting which pushed her to third since she went nowhere in that round.

You make a lot of valid points but the incumbent analogy doesn't entirely hold. She isn't like an incumbent president. She is similar to Gore in 2000 and Bush in 1988 as she is universally known but doesn't have a defined record in the minds of folks like an actual incumbent does. Both Gore and Bush proved to have some wiggle room and came back from setbacks.

You make an interesting argument. The incumbent analogy, adapted to the VP-type situation she is in, also holds for her in the polls against McCain. Her negatives won't rise to any significant degree because everyone already has an opinion of her. By default, as the negatives for McCain rise her poll numbers will improve. Her head to head numbers have only one place to go, like Bush 88' and Gore 00', up; Obama's will only plummet as he gets defined by the other party like Dukakis 88' and Bush 00' experienced.

[scheming daemons]

63. Good points..... but....

The bottom line is that, with his 150+ delegate lead, all Obama has to do in OH, TX, and PA is come within 10% of Hillary.

He doesn't have to win any of them.

She can't overtake him in the delegate race unless she wins with more than 60% of the vote.


Do you HONESTLY see that happening?

[XemaSab]

74. Especially when you back that up with the fact that

she's only gotten over 60% in one state: Arkansas.

She got 55, 56, and 57 percent respectively in Oklahoma, Mass, and New York.

I think it's all over but the screaming.

[COFoothills]

38. You are dreaming...

... if you think losing fifty percent of a lead has to do with a candidate that isn't even running anymore. The undecideds and fence sitters are going for Obama en masse right now. That's the reason and it is only going to continue.

Hillary might win Ohio still, but it won't be by enough for it to save her. She needs to win BIG and that just ain't going to happen. Ditto that for Pennsylvania if it ever comes to pass, and it won't.

[jackson_dem]

49. Where do you think Edwards' vote went to?

The same place it went to in every state outside of a few deep South states?

[COFoothills]

70. Read your own source...

This has nothing to do with the Edwards vote. What Edwards vote?

It has everything to do with this quote in your source on page three....

20% still say they "don't know" for whom they will vote. Then even among those who made a choice in the poll, 37% were still 'making up their minds'.

Sounds like she's got a lock solid hold on the votes there when 57% of those polled said that they are completely undecided or are open to changing their minds.

So when Obama cuts a 20 plus point lead in half in no time at all and when undecided voters and fence sitters are breaking for him in massive number, how on earth can you spin this poll to be good news for Hillary Clinton.

[Exilednight]

24. Hillary couldn't even slate a full field of delegates in Philadelphia, how is she...

going to fair when he ground game is weak and Obama actually starts campaigning in Pa.

Just another fact, Obama doesn't need to win in Pa. He just needs to keep it close.

[JimGinPA]

15. That's The Headline In Our Paper "Obama Cuts Lead In Half" In PA

:bounce:

[PresidentObama]

33. Alright. So she's still ahead. Great news!

[stahbrett]

18. It's only good news (for Hillary) if the election was this week

Seriously, not trying to troll, but hasn't it been made extremely clear that when both candidates actually campaign in a given state for awhile, Obama erases most or all of Hillary's initial lead? She has had the lead is almost every single state at one point in time, mainly due to her near universal name recognition, lack of knowledge about her opponents, and the "inevitability" factor. But Obama overcomes all of that whenever he has a chance to actually campaign heavily.

How did those Texas polls look a few weeks ago? How about those Wisconsin polls?

[NJSecularist]

20. They're in denial

This is what happens when your campaign is on its deathbed.

[PresidentObama]

42. Deathbed?

I'm not in denial.

I'm just laughing at the fact that Obama supporters are so desperate to call this the end.

How is this over?

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama are in a very close race, with Obama ahead.

Senator Clinton leads in OH, TX, PA and RI.

Which is nearly all of the March 4th states and one of those voting in April.

I suggest you stop dancing on Senator Clinton's non-existent grave, and let the race pan out and stop pretending you won the nomination--you haven't. Obama hasn't. Not even close.

[NJSecularist]

55. Keep telling yourself that

Hillary is on a 10 game losing streak. He's had countless golden sombreros since Super Tuesday.

Her lead is nothing in Texas. Her lead is dwindling by the day in Ohio. She is losing her base.

She will lose Vermont and likely Rhode Island. Texas will likely go to Obama and Hillary has the best chance in Ohio.

But keep relying on outdated polls to make you feel better, when Obama clearly has the momentum and is chipping into Hillary's base. :)

[cali]

29. this isn't very good spin

It's Baghdad Bob kind of stuff. He's up 12 and he has almost 2 months to make up the difference. Weak sauce.

[jackson_dem]

39. There isn't spin in the OP, just data

[cali]

54. good grief. there's massive spin, and here it is:

"This is a good sign. Despite two weeks of msm coronation of Obama she retains a double digit lead in Pennsylvania, something she could not do in Wisconsin and Texas. This suggests some fundamental strength in this blue-collar state."

That's not data. that's the very definition of spin.

[rodeodance]

67. as i listen to msm there has indeed been a "msm coronation of Obama" --its his to lose now.

[Avalux]

32. Umm.....the PA primary is April 22nd; two months away.

Obama hasn't even thought about PA yet. These numbers mean nothing because as we well know, a lot can change in a week or two.

[jackson_dem]

43. Why are Obamites so passionate about dismissing this poll then?

It seems to come as a shock to the "hope and change" express. ;)

Polls are news. Should we now not post any polls that don't show Obama leading?

[scheming daemons]

51. We're not dismissing it, we're revelling in it!

This poll is great news for Obama.

[Avalux]

53. Not dismissing, it's just not relevent right now.

If anything it shows gains for Obama. PA will be tough for him though, I admit that. :hi:

[loveangelc]

34. it's too bad the election isnt today for hillary...

[thevoiceofreason]

37. 10th post on this?

[jackson_dem]

44. Really? Links?

I would hate to use up one of my three for a dupe.

[scheming daemons]

46. kerry2008, you're missing the point. Unless Hillary BLOWS OUT Obama in Texas and Ohio, the race ...

...is over.

She can't make up the delegate deficit with narrow wins. She needs 65-35 blowouts.


Do you see that happening?


As long as Obama gets at least 40% in each of those three states, his lead is insurmountable.

[jackson_dem]

65. The only way to find out is to continue campaigning. Besides she is only down 69 delegates

Out of 2,600.

[scheming daemons]

69. According to RCP, she's down 94......

realclearpolitics.com

[stahbrett]

73. The Clinton campaign knows she will not catch up in delegates, but here's their hope

Win TX, OH, and PA. It doesn't really matter by how much - they just want CNN and others to put her picture up on TV with a check next to it. If she can win a few of the others, then that's fine to, but not needed in their opinion. Then the push will be that only Hillary can win the "important" states" (definition of "important state" - states that Hillary has won), and she'll be the tougher challenge for McCain, and thus get enough super-delegates to swing her way.

It's a long shot, extremely long shot - it's being down by 4 touchdowns in the 4th quarter type of long shot.

[zulchzulu]

57. The "msm coronation of Obama"? You mean the voters who are voting for him in droves?

Obama is kicking ass and taking names. Is that a made-up story by the mainstream media?

:rofl:

[NJSecularist]

59. I guess jackson forgot about the MSM coronation of Hillary

Until Obama took the wind out of her sails.

[jackson_dem]

62. What's the delegate count?

[scheming daemons]

66. According to RCP... Obama leads by 159 in pledged, 94 overall....

....she can't make that difference up unless she wins Ohio, Texas, and PA by more than 20% each.


Possible? sure. but very small odds.

[book_worm]

61. ties/loses? sounds like both are a dead heat.

[jenmito]

71. In other words, Obama is catching up to her! Thanks for the info.! And with all the time until

their primary, he should pass her by then.

[XemaSab]

75. Sorry to give you the bad news

but out of 37 states (including Michigan and Florida) that have voted, Hillary has only broken 60% once. In Arkansas.

She's only broken 55% in Michigan, Oklahoma, New York, and Massachusetts.

The odds of her winning in Ohio and Texas? Eh, she might pull it off, who's to say.

The odds of her breaking 60 percent in Ohio and Texas? Very, very, very small.