Breaking: Rasmussen Texas - Hillary 47, Obama 44

[NJSecularist]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

Another Hillary firewall that doesn't look like a firewall anymore.

[PresidentObama]

1. Can someone post the complicated rules in TX?

Seems kinda loopy to me...

Any other recent polls?

[Renew Deal]

5. Texas is uncontrollable.

Once you add in that caucus... Only the truly organized will survive. What a mess.

[PresidentObama]

7. I heard them saying the rules on CNN, and I got lost as hell.

[grantcart]

10. here is pollsters combination of polls

[mohc]

21. There really are only two differences

1. District delegates are allocated among the Texas State Senate districts instead of Congressional Districts. The apportioning of the delegates to the candidates works the same as everywhere else beyond this change. What keeps getting quoted is that Obama benefits from the urban districts having more delegates due to turnout. But this is no different than other states, heavily Democratic congressional districts in other states likewise get more delegates than the more Republican districts, and Obama has similarly benefited from this in other states.

2. The at-large delegates are apportioned based on the post-primary precinct caucuses instead of state-wide voting. This is really the only major difference between Texas and other states. We will finally be able to measure the exact different in support that Obama and Clinton receive in primaries and caucuses that both count towards delegate selection. If Obama stays this close in the primary, but then wins out because of a heavy turnout in the caucus, it might actually feed Clinton's argument against caucuses.

[NJSecularist]

9. Yup. Texas is just so massive it is unbelievable.

Organization is imperative.

The Hillary campaign is bragging about their organization down there, but Obama has more money and has been better organized this primary season.

[grantcart]

6. is this helpful?

. Make or Break State
Clinton surrogates have gone on record in a high profile way that Texas is an absolute must win.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/... /
quote
He hinted at a similar sentiment earlier this week on CNN, but James Carville – a supporter of Hillary Clinton’s White House run — was decidedly more blunt Wednesday on the impact a loss in Texas or Ohio would have on her presidential bid.
"Make no mistake," Bill Clinton's former chief strategist told the Orlando Sentinel. "If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done."unquote

II. Texas is in part a caucus state:

http://www.star-telegram.com/national_news...
quote
Texas has an unusual system of choosing delegates that involves both a primary and a caucus.

The system, which follows national party standards, is geared to ensure that all Democrats have a shot at making it to the convention and making their voice -- and choice -- heard.

"It's very, very confusing in the way politics in general is confusing," said Rebecca Deen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas in Arlington. "The Democratic National Convention has weighted the votes, but they want to make sure the people who participate get to weigh in."

Texas will send 228 delegates to this year's Democratic National Convention in Denver. Of those delegates, 126 will be assigned to vote for candidates based on election results.

An additional 35 will be super delegates . . .The remaining 67 delegates will be chosen through the caucus system -- with 42 being rank-and-file Democrats and 25 being party leaders and elected officials, according to a Lone Star Project Report.
unquote

Hillary and her machine has already dissed the caucus system pretty thoroughly I wonder who energized their folks are going to be for a process disavowed by their candidate. More to the point Obama's forces are skilled and they have the bodies motivated to move on a caucus.

III. The absence of a post Feb 5th campaign plan shows Clintons behind Obama in organization

On Feb 6th the Clinton campaign identified a single staffer going to Texas while Obama campaign had a detailed plan sending in the Iowa team to open 10 offices. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politi...

quote Adrienne Elrod, a 1998 Texas Christian University graduate who worked on the campaign of Houston Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson, flew to the state to do communications for Clinton. . . .

Obama officials said he would open 10 offices around the state including Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and in the Rio Grande Valley.

The campaign named Adrien Saenz, a former aide to Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, to be its state director, and Mitch Stewart, who directed Obama's Iowa grass roots operations, to be Texas field director.

Another veteran of the Iowa campaign, Josh Ernest, a 1997 Rice University graduate who worked on former Houston Mayor Lee Brown's 1997 campaign, was named communications director.

"The ground team that has been on board since Iowa is parachuting in tonight (Wednesday)," said Juan Garcia, a Texas state lawmaker from Corpus Christi who attended Harvard Law School with Obama.

[Alhena]

13. Here's a good summary ... link

it's hugely in favor of Obama.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4937

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

15. Brief synopsis.

Perhaps an oversimplification.

Texas holds an open primary. Republicans and independents can vote, and the Clintons have been using that as an excuse as to why Obama keeps winning.

Candidates who are viable after the primary (>15%) can move on to the caucus. Voters who voted in the primary are allowed to caucus.

The delegates are weighted proportionally, based on the number of democratic voters in 2006. That means the urban and african american communities anf young college eductated districts get lots of delegates. And that also favors Obama.

[crispini]

16. See this website

www.burntorangereport.com

Upper right hand corner.

All the info you need about the primacaucuswhatzit. :hi:

[NJSecularist]

17. Here you go

http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=751

As for recent polls, Survey USA has Obama within 5 and CNN has Obama within 2.

[thevoiceofreason]

22. Outside of superdelegates, 193 delegates chosen by vote or caucus

126 delegates chosen by primary vote totals from election night/early voting. These 126 delegates are divided among our 31 state senate districts, with districts displaying the heaviest historic (2004-2006) democratic turnout (measured by votes for the democratic top of ticket candidate). So, the top 3 state senate dictricts are in Houston (7 in an historically African American district), Dallas (6 in an historically African American district) and Austin (8 in a very liberal district that includes UT). We should have a good idea how these delegates split out on the election night.

67 delegates are chosen by caucus. Our caucus is held on election night at the precinct. Eligible voters (ones who have voted in the democratic primary) indicate their preference when they sign in. Each precinct has a certain number of deleagtes determined by the number of votes cast for the democratic governor candidate (Chris Bell) in 2006 in that precinct. After the chair is elected, the sides split up and relative totals are determined and divided into the total delegates for that prcinct. Each caucus then determines its deleagtes (and alternates) that will represent each candidate at the state senate convention in 3 1/2 weeks. The meeting then adjourns. Similar winnowing takes place at the state senate convention and the state convention, where certain numbers of delegates are chosen again per state senate district (roughly 1/2 of the deleagtes as were chosen by the popular vote totals).

[cali]

2. Text from the link

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary
Texas: Clinton 47% Obama 44%
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Advertisment
In Texas, a state that she must-win to keep her campaign alive, the good news for Hillary Clinton is that she’s still ahead of Barack Obama. The bad news is that her lead is down to three points after she was leading by double-digits a week ago.

Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by five points among men. Nationally, Clinton and Obama evenly split the women’s vote and Obama enjoys a slight lead overall.

In a pattern seen elsewhere, Clinton leads among White voters and Latino voters while trailing badly among African-Americans. Clinton leads by big margins among those 65 and older while Obama does better among voters under 65. Clinton leads among Democrats while Obama leads among Independent voters likely to take part in the Primary.

Obama is viewed favorably by 75% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 73%.

<snip>

good news, if true, but 2 weeks in politics is a life time.

[ExtraGriz]

3. bunch of polls here....

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html

[thevoiceofreason]

4. Ha! Here we come.

And we'll really put feet on the ground this weekend!

[COFoothills]

12. Wow.....

That's tightening up nicely.

And the way delegates are apportioned in Texas it is very plausible that one candidate could win the popular vote (Clinton) while the other actually collects more delegates (Obama).

Speaking of which, I like the way Texas does this and I wish more place would adopt similar procedures. It weights things toward democratic strongholds in the state and rewards parts of the state where the local party works harder and turns out more democrats. It is designed to encourage and active party base by incentivizing that activity.

[northernsoul]

8. My guess is there's going to be lot of see-sawing between now and March 4

I encourage all of our Texas Obama supporters to assume he's 10-15 points down and work their asses off between now and March 4. Overconfidence can kill.

[bluestateguy]

11. Hillary's firewall

[TexasBushwhacker]

14. How long does Ron Paul have to run as an indie

He could be a real spoiler in Texas ....

[ButterflyBlood]

27. He can't run in Texas

Texas law prohibits candidates from running for more than one office, and he's going to run for reelection to his House seat.

[SoCalDem]

18. Aaah.. Rasmussen, the freepers' favorite pollster

They always quote it when all the other polls show junior's numbers in the toilet :rofl:

I don;t believe ANY pollsters these days :)

[MadBadger]

19. Rasmussen though shows the trend that CNN and SUSA shows, Obama closing fast.

[book_worm]

20. Do some checking and you'll see that Rasmussen has been pretty accurate overall

this primary season. But polls are only snapshots. Luckily other polls are also showing a tightening not only in Texas, but Ohio and Pennsylvania too.

[NJSecularist]

24. They've been decent

They are usually much better than they have been this primary season, however...

[rocktivity]

23. Get thee behind me, polls!

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[LadyVT]

25. They are in a dead heat -- pollster.com

[Occam Bandage]

26. Man. Is there a 20-point lead that Hillary *can't* choke up?

[ORDem]

28. And these new numbers for OH and TX also show Obama closing

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com

Friday, February 22

Race Poll Results Spread
Texas Democratic Primary ABC/Wash Post Clinton 48, Obama 47 Clinton +1
Ohio Democratic Primary ABC/Wash Post Clinton 50, Obama 43 Clinton +7

[loveangelc]

29. wtf last week he was down 16. I knew he was never down 16. w/e rasmussen.