Just so I look in tune with reality, I think Obama is going to win. But Hillary's got a chance.

[PresidentObama]

I see a lot of people writing Hillary Clinton off.

That bothers me. Yes, her gap has closed in OH, TX, and PA. But she still leads, and has a good base there. The last poll in RI showed her leading, that I saw of. She's still got the organization, and the opportunity tonight at the debate to turn this around. I think it's too soon to write off her campaign, and say it's over. It's simply not. If you count Senator Clinton, you're making a big mistake.

Now, I'm not stupid. I understand momentum is on Barack Obama's side. I understand that Hillary is going to have to win all three delegate rich states to even stop his momentum. And if I had to guess, I'd say Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee at this point.

BUT...

It's not over. That's all I'm saying. And I'm sick of DUers suggesting Hillary should drop out, that Hillary doesn't stand a chance when she has a lead in some of the upcoming states, and that the nomination is Obama's.

Watch and see. Obama's got a lead going into the fourth quarter. And I support Hillary, and know she could have the strategy to turn this around. This reminds me of the Patriots vs. Giants Superbowl. So close, and fun to watch.

Nevermind that my team lost ;)

In closing, WATCH AND SEE!

And then onto kicking some John McCain ass!

[HeraldSquare212]

1. It ain't over till it's over.

I am curious to see how her money holds out, though. I don't think we know a lot about that right now.

[tekisui]

2. She also ended Jan. $7.6 million in debt.

It will be hard for her to compete in big markets with a debt like that. Obama ended Jan. up over $10 million and has raised $32 million so far in Feb.

[PresidentObama]

3. Hmmm, link? Haven't read that.

[tekisui]

4. Here ya go:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8613.html

[PresidentObama]

7. Jesus. Well, um....well, I'm not sure the proper response.

:shrug:

[Johnny__Motown]

20. proper response = terribly run campaign

[ErnestoG]

21. BUT that made alot of consultants richer!

[stahbrett]

5. "She's still got the organization" - I have to disagree with this to an extent

She may have an organization, but I've seen little evidence that it's organized or functioning very well. She does still have a chance though - I agree with you on that main point.

[NJSecularist]

6. Last time somebody tried to compare a political event to a sport was in 2004

And we all know what happened then.

[Major Hogwash]

8. Did you ever see that one movie Dumb and Dumber?

"So, you're saying I've got a chance?"

"Uh, it's not good."

"You mean, not good, like 1 out of a 100?"

"I'd say, more like 1 out of a million."

"So, you're telling me there's a chance. . .YEAH!. . . I read ya."

[John Q. Citizen]

9. The delegate math is almost impossible to overcome. The supers are

moving to Obama, consistently, and that's not just the newly declared but also a number starting to switch from Hill to Obama.

I don't see any realistic way she can win the majority of elected delegates. She would need to win almost all the remaining states by very large margins, small wins won't do it.

But, it's not impossible I suppose, just highly improbable.

[LSparkle]

10. I agree she has a chance -- a small chance

On her radio show last night, Rachel Maddow very soberly analyzed what Hillary needs in order to win and examined the trends and -- absent the spin -- it doesn't look good. However, she DOES still have a chance and as I've often heard, we can never count a Clinton out until the fat lady sings.

[Catherine Vincent]

11. It's not over til the anorexic lady sings!

[BuyingThyme]

12. She's currently leading nationally in the popular vote category.

[KAZ]

13. Nice post Kerry2008! I'm in the minority here...

.. since I'm an Obama supporter, and I kind of want her to stay in the race, even if it's practically over. As long as the race stays clean. Having two groundbreaking candidates generates a lot of excitement, which is good for our party, and great for our country.

[KAZ]

14. Oops, I forgot to give this a Rec. So I'll sneak a little kick in

while I'm at it. :)

:kick:

[KAZ]

17. Fine, how about, "fuck you asshole". Reply to that?

Your purpose on DU is clear.

[Enrique]

15. I agree

the odds seem to be with Obama, but what do I know?

[David Zephyr]

16. She has a chance. It's very small. Everything will be decided on Tuesday.

Even Bill was candid enough to say that Hillary must win both Ohio and Texas.

She's held out for these two states after 11 losses.

If she loses, then it's all over and we can begin working toward defeating John McCain.

In spite of the polarization here at the DU, Barack and Hillary get along just fine.

[grantcart]

18. What you don't understand is how delegates are divided up

Its not divided up by results in a state - in fact in Texas there isn't even a bonus for winning the state as there is in some states

If you win a 2 delegate congressional district you would have to get 70% to get both delegates 51 or 69% are still going to mean a split

IN a 3 delegate district you if somebody gets 51 or 70% you would still split 2-1

In a 4 delegate district at 65% you get a 3-1 split

and so on and that's why they say you really have to get 65% in a congressional district to make up big numbers

and I don't know the exact percentages but you get the point. That is why once it gets to two person race and one person is ahead it is almost impossible for anyone to catch up.

In the meantime the superdelegates are going against Hillary


And this means she has to do even better than before


And finally in Texas (which is 1/3 caucus, 1/2 primary) the congressional districts get bonuses for how many democratic votes in the last election. Those districts that have high African American turn out for example are going to get a much higher percentage of delegates than a Hispanic district because they supported the democratic nominee while the Hispanic districts were more for Bush.

For these reasons many people say that the numbers mean that Hillary cannot win and do not understand why people want to push the campaign beyond the point of no return.

Clinton supporters on the other hand look at the numbers and see that it seems like a small difference and anything can happen.

I hate to bear bad news for you but I think that the above explanation will help you atleast understand why Obama supporters now feel that it is a foregone conclusion.

Good luck to Hillary supporters. Anything can happen. I hope that we can be reconciled on the same team in a few weeks

[Johnny__Motown]

19. Do the math , she is to far behind to catch up with 52-48 wins in big states. She needs 65% +