No Joke People, TX Poll: Obama 57 Clinton 43

[MadBadger]

Obama Leading Clinton in Texas, According to Feb. 20 and 21 Statewide Survey by Decision Analyst
ARLINGTON, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Barack Obama has a double digit lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas, according to a statewide survey of 678 registered voters planning to vote in the March 4 Democratic Primary. The survey was conducted February 20 and 21 by Decision Analyst, a major national survey research firm. Decision Analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today Obama would win 57% to 43% over Clinton. The survey’s margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 90% level of confidence.

//snip//

The issues of greatest importance to those who plan to vote in the Democratic Primary are (in order of importance): making healthcare more affordable (chosen by 35%); making the economy stronger and better (chosen by 29%); bringing the troops home from Iraq (28%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (17%); reducing gasoline prices and the cost of energy (16%).


Survey Methodology. Results based on scientific sampling of registered voters from American Consumer Opinion® (www.acop.com), one of the largest online research panels in the world. The sample was carefully balanced by gender, ethnicity, age, and geography; the data were weighted as necessary to fully represent the different demographic groups.

Decision Analyst (www.decisionanalyst.com), based in Dallas-Fort Worth, is a leading international marketing research and marketing consulting firm specializing in advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and advanced modeling for decision optimization. In addition, Decision Analyst owns and operates American Consumer Opinion® Online, one of the largest research panels in the world with over 7 million members.


http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080221006244&newsLang=en

[woolldog]

1. I don't buy it.

[MadBadger]

3. I dont really buy it either, but its out there.

[usregimechange]

2. He can win in TX by that much, I believe given WI results

[slick8790]

4. I'm cautiously optimistic. Seems too good to be true.

What kind of record does Decision Analyst have this year?

[Blarch]

38. It says 3%

Thats pretty good for polling.

[NJSecularist]

5. I'd really like to see the crosstabs on this one.

[rocktivity]

6. Get thee behind me, polls!

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[Yurem2008]

9. OK, assuming Hillary gets blown away in TX

she loses the nomination and this Autumn she divorces Bill Clinton.

[alphafemale]

15. !

:spray:

[thesubstanceofdreams]

7. As an Obama supporter, I can only call this an outlier

All recent polls except this one agree that it's a very close race with possibly a small advantage for Clinton at the moment.

[Eric J in MN]

8. I prefer polls by companies like SUSA, Rasmussen, etc.

...who have a decent track record which I know about.

[MadBadger]

12. SUSA yes, Rasmussen no. I dont understand the assmumption that they have a good track record.

[Mass]

10. Decision Analyst, a major national survey research firm. (really? First time I hear of them).

I think that Obama is behind in Ohio, but I do not know this firm. Never heard of them.

[bluestateguy]

11. I'd like to know what their methodology was here

That just seems way out of whack; like ARG out of whack.

[MadBadger]

14. I edited to include who they are and methodology.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

13. Zogby, is that you?

[bigdarryl]

16. No way he is leading by that magin BUT if true shes done

[karynnj]

17. Another Obama supporter who wonders what they did wrong

This is too far out of line to be real.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

18. MY POLL Says Hillary's Up 75% To 25%!!! And It's Ok To Trust Me: I'm A Leading International

marketing research and marketing consulting firm!!!

[NJSecularist]

20. Where's your website?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

23. Right Here:

Hillary Leads Obama 75% To 25% In Texas

[NJSecularist]

28. So you have Rick Roll

But you don't have a website? :)

[Bucky]

22. Well, I just polled my office and Obama's got a two-to-one advantage in Texas

I knew Jeff would come thru for me. Laurie's pissed, of course.

[MadBadger]

25. I just polled my apartmnet. Obama's gonna win 100%

Only white Jewish men who have already voted in NJ will turnout.

[thevoiceofreason]

19. Did ARG change its name?

[MadBadger]

21. I thought they had for a minute. Hey, ARG was second closest in Wisco!

[thevoiceofreason]

36. You're right -- on that last second avulsion!

[TheDoorbellRang]

37. Idunno -- I always see them as Aarghh

:-)

[Ilsa]

24. Only 678 polled? I thought most samples were over 1000.

I guess we'll find out March 4th, when I expect turnout to be very, very high for Democratic voters.

[MadBadger]

27. The problem isnt with the sample size. 678 is actually the highest number for any of the TX polls.

[grantcart]

26. no previous political experience

Fairly large market survey company

This company isn't about second guessing. Decision Analyst offers market research and consulting services to clients such as Radio Shack, Intel, Mannatech, and Schering-Plough. The company provides syndicated and custom research serving the packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, health care, and e-commerce industries. Its research services include data collection and analysis, covering such topics as advertising testing, strategy research, new product development, and marketing decision optimization. In addition, its statistical analysis software, STAT, allows the user to conduct significant testing, measure sample sizes, and generate random numbers. Decision Analyst was founded in 1978.


On March 5th they will either be a very famous polling company or going back judging consumer interest in whole grain bread

http://www.hoovers.com/decision-analyst/--ID__106398--/free-co-profile.xhtml

[mopinko]

29. the polls said wisconsin was neck and neck. none of the blowouts were

predicted by anyone. i suspect that it is the definition of likely voters that is not pointing at the flood of new voters we are seeing.

[MadBadger]

30. Public Policy had Obama winning by 13 because they weighted the results to figure in greater turnout

There poll had Obama winning by 4 I believe, but they fiddled with the numbers by how they thought turnout would go and saw a 13 point Obama win.

[11 Bravo]

31. And here I thought the phrase "hopeful little wingnut" should be reserved for Repugs.

[MadBadger]

33. Excuse me?

[loveangelc]

32. maybe they underestimated latinos?

[AtomicKitten]

34. The polls are all over the place, but Obama's trend is unmistakable!!

[MadBadger]

35. That I can agree with.

[krkaufman]

40. The trending is key, as shown in Pollster.com graph below ...

... and there's still nearly 2 weeks until the TX primary. Unless something happens to severely disrupt the trend, Obama is going to hugely benefit from the instinct people have to go with the winning team.

[AtomicKitten]

43. he's on his way ....

cheers!

[krkaufman]

45. cheers! (love the signature graphic) n/t

[krkaufman]

39. Pollster.com averages sure do look to have the race tightening-up

I don't trust individual polls, especially when a race is this volatile. The pollster.com graphs indicate the race may be a dead heat.




Obama has a LOT more ground to cover in Ohio: http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[beachmom]

41. Looks like an outlier to me. I think a better sign is the early voting turnout

in areas favorable to Obama. Remember that Clinton did very well with the early voting in California, and that is a big part of the reason she had an easy time winning the state. Now, it is possible the early voting in TX will favor Obama. Only time will tell.

[krkaufman]

46. Right. She did well in states that had early voting.... especially where early voting started...

... before Obama really started picking-up steam.

[awaysidetraveler]

42. There could be some logic to this report.

The majority of other reports show a trend. It works like this: a month before the state election, Obama's ten to twenty points down; a week to the election he's between five and ten points; three days before the election, lo and behold--Obama's neck and neck (some polls even show him up a bit); then, the day of the election shows that the last polls were right! He's made it! It's Obama!

Who wins with polls like the one you just cited? Not the media--they're the ones building the event. Wait a minute? Are they the same ones running the majority of the polls to begin with? Could it be?

Vast numbers of Hillary supporters following her after her latest losing debate, after her 11-0 loss, and after watching Obama looking more electable than ever... well, it's unlikely.

Maybe your poll is the good one.

[Occam Bandage]

44. I completely totally and utterly do not buy this.