New TX Poll: OBAMA 57%, CLINTON 43%

[Dems Will Win]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080221/20080221006244.html?.v=1

Yee-Hah!

Obama Leading Clinton in Texas, According to Feb. 20 and 21 Statewide Survey by Decision Analyst
Thursday February 21, 6:42 pm ET

ARLINGTON, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Barack Obama has a double digit lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas, according to a statewide survey of 678 registered voters planning to vote in the March 4 Democratic Primary. The survey was conducted February 20 and 21 by Decision Analyst, a major national survey research firm. Decision Analyst projections indicate that if the election were held today Obama would win 57% to 43% over Clinton. The survey’s margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 90% level of confidence.

[Quixote1818]

1. Thats stunning. nt

[TheZug]

5. But remember: this is a pre "xerox" zinger poll.

Those numbers will switch once Texans get a load of that one--Mark Penn really earned his donuts tonight!!!!

[jamesinca]

20. for those of us who don't pay attention

what is the xerox thingy you mention?

[Quixote1818]

25. Here you go

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mftuZFzS3Tc

[jamesinca]

48. Thank you

[Recursion]

41. Oh God. Please un-ask that question. n/t

[Quixote1818]

23. It was interesting to see how many Hillary supporters thought that was a great line

They were even starting threads praising it as the best line of the night. I guess when you where rose colored glasses then even pooh pooh looks beautiful. :shrug:

[GoldieAZ49]

61. They "HOPE" it will slow the train wreck of her campaign

they didn't that the booing is negative

[Iris]

66. but do you really think it was so bad that people would decided NOT to vote for her?

it may not win any independents over, but is it really going to change the minds of 57%?

[speedoo]

44. Welcome to DU. However, you are dreaming.

Sure Hillary's supporters loved that line. But many others thought it was a dumb thing to say, about an issue that they just don't care about. And if Hillary's own pilfering of others lines comes to light, just in this debate, it will backfire on her.

In any case, she needed a much better relative debate performance last night to get this turned around. I don't think she came close to stopping Obama's momentum.

[ORDem]

47. Did you forget the sarcasm smilie?

That comment went over like a lead ballon. She was booed.
More like that comment is going to result in a 20+ margin for Obama.

RCP tallies:
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
RCP Average 02/15 - 02/20 - 48.8 46.0 Clinton +2.8
Rasmussen 02/20 - 02/20 549 LV 47 44 Clinton +3.0
ABC/Wash Post 02/16 - 02/20 603 LV 48 47 Clinton +1.0
SurveyUSA 02/16 - 02/18 660 LV 50 45 Clinton +5.0
CNN 02/15 - 02/17 529 LV 50 48 Clinton +2.0

:dem:

[Thepricebreaker]

51. You think people are going to change over a 1 liner? LOL ROFL

[Arkana]

67. I really, really hope you're being sarcastic.

That line got booed--and virtually every analyst agreed it bombed. Outside of her own supporters she didn't wow anyone with that comment.

[Bucky]

80. :o)

You dork.

And one more thing....









Leave donuts alone!

[nomorewhopper]

18. a graph

the poll discussed in this post is not included in these numbers

[Bucky]

81. I knew he'd win Texas. Ohio I'm not too sure of

compare

[CreekDog]

2. My gosh, by March 4th at this rate it will be

Obama 137% Hillary -48%

[Cha]

3. Come on Obama..you can

do it! Change you can Xerox!

[scheming daemons]

4. Could this match Hillary's internals?

Is that why she was so conciliatory at the end and why her heart didn't seem to be in the "xerox" canned line?

[BeyondGeography]

6. For the first time in her adult life, Michelle Obama is going to be really proud of Texas

[ShortnFiery]

14. ...

;) :hi:

Go Obama! :patriot:

[JVS]

22. Is he about to to start doing clap stop clap stomp point point?

[Whisp]

62. good one. true. ;) nt

[Arkana]

69. Hell, for the first time in my WHOLE life

I'll be proud of Texas.

[Hippo_Tron]

74. I'd make an exception to that for when they elected Ann Richards

But I wasn't old enough to remember that.

[Arkana]

76. I was, um, 9...and every election I'm old enough to remember

Texas has been solid red--plus they gave us Asshole.

[Pirate Smile]

7. Whaaaa? Who is Decision Analyst?

I like it but I want more info.

[grantcart]

16. They are a very experienced market survey company with

no history in political campaigns

They would be the people to answer the question do people prefer whole wheat bread in a yellow or brown wrap.

On March 5 they will either be very well known for political polls or a laughing stock

[ShortnFiery]

8. Sweet! But let's take nothing for granted? Keep on the job. :-)

Go Obama! :patriot:

[scheming daemons]

9. Texas looks like it wants to secede from the "United States That Matter".....

.....

[Cha]

27. They're skating on very

thin ice!

[Adelante]

54. "United States That Matter"

Nice :D

[Barack_America]

10. I'm going to have to see another poll with these numbers before I believe this.

[nomorewhopper]

11. holy shit - maybe this is why it was so civil in tonight's debate?

she must have known these numbers before giving her "goodbye" speech tonight


obama must have known these numbers too


maybe that's why it was so civil in tonight's debate (relatively speaking)

[NoBorders]

12. Wapo/ABC has it Clinton 48-47 in TX

Which is a huge improvement for him. I have a hard time buying that DA poll.

[Johnny__Motown]

13. 678 voters polled, dunno how accurate that is gonna be

[MadBadger]

24. Out of all the polls, I think 687 is the biggest sample size.

[GalleryGod]

50. 1100 is a normal NATIONAL sample.

[yellowcanine]

70. It is plenty large enough IF they polled the different groups in the correct proportions.

Unfortunately that is a big IF. But the thing to do is wait and see if other polls show similar results.

[loveangelc]

15. I don't think so. lol.

[Occam Bandage]

17. I've never heard of these people. Frankly, I don't buy it.

[yellowcanine]

73. They are a national marketing research firm. I would not dismiss them out of hand.

Most of their clients pay good money for their services in marketing new products. Political polling is different, yes, but not THAT different. I suspect these are pretty good numbers but of course the real test of how good the numbers are is how they are in accord with other polls taken at the same time. We will soon find out I am sure. And remember it is a snapshot and numbers are volatile right now.

http://www.decisionanalyst.com/services/innovation.dai

[TexasLady]

19. well my kid and I did early voting Tuesday.

I looked at the little paper you sign on both the Reps and the Dems, and expected to see just a handful of signatures for the Dems.
I saw a column and a half of the Republican voters signatures, but a full column of Democrats. I never remember seeing so many sigs the last time around. Pretty unusual for my little county in rural Texas. Kind of nice actually!

[JVS]

21. YEEEEEHAAAAAAAAW!

[MadBadger]

What these polls show is that unlike Florida and Cali, she doesnt have an edge in Early Voting.

[Tatiana]

28. BINGO. That's the difference.

Early voting is substancially favoring Obama. Really all he has to do is break even in the primaries, but it looks like he may edge Clinton there and still clean up in the later caucuses. I don't think the margin is that big, but I think Obama has pulled slightly ahead.

What a Texas-sized collapse for Clinton.

[jackson_dem]

26. Has anyone heard of DA before this?

Is it credible?

[Egnever]

29. I am not getting excited about this one yet.

[Muttocracy]

30. several other Texas polls and recent national polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html

basically Clinton ahead by a few % in the last week. Wouldn't reflect very recent changes. In any case, I'll believe it's going to be close.

edit to add - here's their page of most recent polls (TX or elsewhere)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[MadBadger]

38. Why should we care about national polls though?

In the past 11 contests, Obama has been close to Clinton in the national polls, but yet his smallest victory was by 17 percent, and his greatest was by about 50 percent. I'm sorry If I'm skeptical of the validity of National polls anymore.

[RiverStone]

31. Even an Obama win by half that margin in TX gives him the nomination!

:)

[Colobo]

32. GOBAMAAAAAA!!!

[LakeSamish706]

33. Stick a fork in that there Hillary... Cause I think she is done... Just my opinion a course...n/t

[UALRBSofL]

34. Rasmussen's February 21st poll

Shows Hillary up 47% to 44% Obama

[Colobo]

The important thing is that he's catching her!

[Colobo]

35. The important thing is that he's catching her!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

72. trend line. slope. y vs. x-axis. all Barack.

[Eurobabe]

36. Please make this be OVER Texas!! GOBAMA n/t

[texas_indy]

37. As some of us been sayin' all along, This is ........ OBAMA COUNTRY!!! (nt)

[snooper2]

53. Yep!

:) :hi:

[ErnestoG]

39. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[BringBigDogBack]

40. Holy shit.

:wow:

[Drunken Irishman]

42. This poll has a really small margin of error, as well.

Only 3%, which is amazing for today's polls.

[Bread and Circus]

43. MOE is inverse to sample size if I remember my statistics courses well

[Drunken Irishman]

46. Right, still an amazing number.

Most are from 4-6%.

[Thrill]

45. Damn if this is true. She should drop out now

spare the embarassment

[GalleryGod]

49. Good news is always welcome..

Let's Ride!

[Mme. Defarge]

78. DAMASCUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[workinclasszero]

52. Obama is running away with it!!!

Unstoppable, BIG MO baby!!!!

Say hello to President Obama!!:patriot:

[Dems Will Win]

55. Go! Gobama Go O Go! Gobama Be Good!

[Darth_Kitten]

56. Oh, another one.

Funny how somebody suddenly loses a double digit lead in a matter of what, a couple of days?

This is getting funnier and funnier.

[catagory5]

57. WOW. He gained what 15 or 16 points in one day

Very impressive indeed. Obama is God isnt he?

Stupes....

[Medusa]

58. It's because going negative has so *helped* HRC don't you think?

:eyes:

[Whisp]

59. unbelievable.

I knew he would creep up, but This fast?

ouch for the Clinton campaign. They have to be screaming at each other about now.

[book_worm]

60. I'm an Obama supporter and I think that poll is out of whack

I think he's gaining but has nowhere like a fifteen point lead.

[Infinite Hope]

63. Anytime it goes from tied to double-digit lead overnight (NH) it's bull.

Don't lose focus. He has work to do so win Texas. It's tied.

[TexasObserver]

64. This poll is probably closer to right than any of them.

[NoodleyAppendage]

65. BEWARE OF MANIPULATED POLLS meant to give false impression of security.

Knowing TX as I do, I would not discount the possibility of "inflated" poll results in Obama's favor to depress his voter turn-out. Be careful when dealing with TX and the DINO/DLC pro-corporate criminal machine.

J

[cooolandrew]

68. Whoa and Barack tends to exceed expectations too. It'sgonna be an event to watch.

[Indenturedebtor]

71. Hrmmm I dunno

This is pretty suspect. It's not like they did this poll after a major blunder. This was done before the debate guys.

I really don't know about this poll. Though I do think that will be how the actual voting turns out on the fourth!

[Khaotic]

75. Good News

I hope the trend continues.

I think Texas will decide it.

[Dems Will Win]

77. kick

[GodlessBiker]

79. I am...stunned...it is good news..but I almost don't believe it. I want to see more polls say this.

[RBInMaine]

82. Oh Yeah ! Rock On BIG-O !!