New Rasmussen OH poll: Clinton 48, Obama 40

[thesubstanceofdreams]

12% undecided, 17% could change vote.
This is in line with other recent polls.
I believe Hillary will win OH by about a 5% margin, unless something dramatic happens before the primary.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

edit: spelling

[Independent-Voter]

1. Obama's steadly gaining, the primary is 12 days away, and there are high undecided/switchers

Doesn't look like a blowout win for HRC by any stretch.

[book_worm]

2. I think Obama has a better shot in Texas but if he comes within five points of HRC in Ohio

I think his momentum will be unstoppable.

[From The Left]

3. Hill Needs to Win 65% of Remaining States

To catch Obama and it ain't gonna happen.

[Dogmudgeon]

10. I think she needs 65% to win, not to catch up

Obama is in a similar situation, but only needs about 58%, IIRC. He has an approximate 10-15% lead in delegates with about 55% of the delegates chosen.

If someone has solid information on this, please post it.

--p!

[thevoiceofreason]

4. Cue in music from "Chicago:" Feeling Stronger Every Day

[Occam Bandage]

5. Obama's comin' in strong. Within 5-10 in OH, and it's all but over.

[NJSecularist]

6. Great news!!!

When it was a 19 point lead just a week ago, I thought Obama never had a chance to win this state.

I'm willing to project right now that Obama will in fact win Ohio. :)

He just has too much momentum.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

7. 1. look at the trend line 2. look at how Rasmussen typically underpolls O voters

...and this thing is already a dead heat and headed for an O win by 5 or more

[Radical Activist]

16. Obama has finished ahead of all the polls since 2/5.

He also has more time to move up, which he has in all states. I think he'll win OH.

[Dogmudgeon]

8. I think we'll see stronger convergence

In your other thread, you cited Rasmussen 4-day tracking polls showing Obama down and Hillary unchanged. The actual graphs are starting to resemble intertwining vines. What will count now is whether Hillary's campaign is dying, or is just on the ropes and able to rebound.

Getting rid of Penn and ending the "Xerox Moments" would go a loooong way for her.

--p!

[scheming daemons]

9. If she only wins Ohio by 5%, that's a LOSS for her....

....she can't make up the delegate deficit unless she blows Obama out in Texas and Ohio.

Her wins have to be 15% or more.

[Tellurian]

11. Wooo- Hooo! Hillary is back!

She's going after Texas and Ohio with a vengence... She's fighting HARD and she'll WIN!

http://www.taylormarsh.com/images2/hillaryclinton_wideweb__470x308,02.jpg

[cali]

13. Want to respond to the actual facts?

Hillary is tied with Barack in TX and just started up her ground game there. His was established a YEAR ago and he has far more people on the ground. In addition he has much more money for ad buys. She's deeply in debt. The caucus part of the contest favors him with his better ground game. Given those facts, what reason do you have to believe she can win it?

OH is demographically much like Wisconsin and he has the Teamsters, SEIU and United to win working on the ground for him there. She's only 5 to 10 pts ahead of him. 12 days before Wisconsin she was in the same position and lost it by 17. How is Ohio different?

[thevoiceofreason]

22. You should see the flood of people at the volunteer HQ for Barack

In Houston. As an excellent former governor in Texas once said "The late train is better than no train at all."

[scheming daemons]

19. Are you delusional? The same poll had her up by 14 just 3 days ago...

....She's hemorraging votes in both Texas and Ohio.

It's over... and she seems to know it.

[Arkana]

12. Hmmm...he was behind 52-38 a few days ago

It certainly shows he's making gains.

[mohc]

14. Rassmussen had Obama up by 4% in its last WI poll

Obama led Clinton 47-43 with 10% undecided in Rassmussen's final WI poll, released 5 days before the election. Obama went on to win the states by 18%, more than his lead in the poll with all the undecideds added in. With 11 days left, and the leads and trends where they are now in Rassmussen's TX and OH poll, it looks like Obama may very well win both states outright. We'll have to wait and see if Clinton can stop bleeding support.

[COFoothills]

15. Hillary probably eeks out a narrow win in Ohio...

...but loses Texas.

Obama has a net gain on pledged delegates on the day with a higher margain win in Texas versus her win in Ohio.

And that is all she wrote.

[yellowcanine]

17. I am not so sure. This is a lot of volatility with over a week to go. I think Obama may take Ohio

and Texas and Clinton will be hard put to hang unto PA if that happens. I wonder what the Clinton internals are like. Hillary's closing last night sounded as if she wasn't so optimistic about her chances - bordered on a concession, imo.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

24. Don't forget younger voters...

They are typically not polled (cellphone only - no land line) and they seem to be going big for Obama. Students at UW Madison went almost 80% for Obama this week.

[Staples]

18. Doesn't matter...she needs to win in a landslide...she's going to lose Texas anyway

The nomination is Obama's.

This race is over.

[Seen the light]

20. Obama will win both TX and OH and wrap it up on March 4th

And I'll be pissed though because NC still won't have a say. :grr:

[Egnever]

21. Come on Ohio !

Put this thing to rest for us!

[Colobo]

23. Gobama! Gobama!