Oh, for pity's sake.

[cali]

John McCain is NOT a formidable candidate. He's as deeply flawed as any repuke candidate I can think of. He was before the recent revelations, and the discovery that he lied about Paxon, and he's even weaker now.

The political climate is as unfavorable for repubs as it's been for 30 years. The republican party is bleeding all over the American landscape. The party is losing registered voters as the dems gain them. An aura of corruption and scandal envelops them and is sealed tighter week after week. Dem turnout in the primaries has been robust, repuke turnout anaemic.

Americans do NOT yet "know" John McCain. They may know his name and associate it with maverick and independent, but dems have only just begun to give Americans a real picture of McCain. He's got ugly scandal in both his personal life and in his political life. He's flip flopped on numerous issues. The MSM love affair with him is not what it once was. He's pissing off the reporters who he once charmed. And if you don't think they turn on repuke candidates as well as dems, well, you need to recall how they treated Bob Dole, for one. And they turned on Poppy bush too.

The current lobbying/McCain scandal looks to be the tip of the iceberg and it shows no sign of disappearing. Social Conservatives still detest him and the chances of keeping enough of them in the fold is dim, despite efforts to rally them to his side.

McCain is old and looks infirm. He has a history of cancer that will be brought up with great "concern". Their have been whispers of his mental problems and his temper is both famous and all too easily provoke. He's known to go off on his colleagues with streams of obscenities. All this stuff is grist for the MSM mill. It's already started.

Building him up to be some scary hard to beat candidate is non-sensical. He can be dismantled. And he will be. W was a better candidate with more discipline than McMainiac.

McCain is lousy in debates and poor on the stump. He's mired in a real mess with the FEC and may not be able to extricate himself from it, thus leaving him with no financial resources until the Convention.

Yes, the polls show him as competitive at this time, but that's before we've even started in on him. And we'll have far more resources and a better environment to operate in.

Either Hillary or Barack would beat him, barring something truly extraordinary happening to torpedo their campaigns. I believe that Obama is a stronger candidate against him, but have no doubt that Clinton would also cut him into pieces. The claims by partisans on either side of the Clinton/Obama divide are absurd in predicting that Obama/Clinton would be creamed by McCain.

If we can't win the White House this year, against this piss poor candidate, we should simply turn out the lights on the dem party.

[shadowknows69]

1. Thank you

I have no fear of McCain. Unless we let him get too much of a head start smearing our candidates while they're still busy smearing each other. We don't have the strongest candidates we could have, I think Biden or Dodd would wipe the floor with him better, but it should be ours to lose.
S

[cali]

2. You may be right

but both Dodd and Biden are saddled with some of the problems that will bedevil McCain. Of course, Biden is one of the most articulate guys out there and seeing him take McCain apart in a debate would be a great joy, but I think the candidates we have, provide a vibrant and favorable contrast to McCainiac.

[H2O Man]

3. McCain is flawed.

The republican machine, however, should never be taken for granted. We have an opportunity to take the White House, and make significant gains in Congress. Add to that state and local elections. We should take full advantage of this opportunity. And Senator McCain can be used to help us achieve those goals.

[cali]

4. While, I would certainly agree with you

that nothing should be taken for granted, the disarray of the republican party has a negative impact on their much vaunted machine and GOTV efforts. That and the fact that Dean and the Obama campaign have greatly strengthened the dem machine and dem
GOTV.

[H2O Man]

5. Perhaps McCain's friend

Rick Renzi will help him straighten things out.

McCain's ability to damage himself can almost certainly be counted on in the fall.

[cboy4]

6. I was watching Real Time tonight and some idiot

Republican Rep. from Georgia made a point about the NYT article about McCain's alleged fooling around.

He said Republicans, who don't really support McCain, are rallying around him fiercely because they're angry with article.

I'm telling you right now, the fact that Republicans will vote for a Republican to keep the White House makes him formidable.

Period.

It's irrelevant whether he's a flawed candidate and what resources we have versus theirs.

Look at how many people voted for a flawed candidate in 2000 and 2004.

That's why I just shake my head when I read comments from some Obama supporters who have all but booked their plane tickets to his inauguration.

Confidence and enthusiasm are great.

Overconfidence and arrogance can be fatal, in just about anything in life.

[cali]

9. I completely disagree. I'm listening to Morning Edition

right now and, this story is not going away. You don't seem to grasp that the story is not about sex. It's about corruption. I suggest you bone up on it. And go read freeperville, although that's not completely representative, they are hardcore repukes, and many are definitely NOT rallying.

You don't know that social conservative and disaffected repukes will vote for him period. You certainly don't have a crystal ball. And many indications are that an unknown number may well not vote. period.

And sorry, of course it's not irrelevant whether or not he's a flawed candidate with a scandal attached. Of course money matters. And you neglect FACTS such as greater number of dems and a vastly improved dem machine. Those facts matter. As does the zeitgueist of the nation.

Yes, people voted for flawed candidates in 2000 and 2004, but this is NOT 2000 or 2004. I called those races. I saw bush as a very formidable candidate. Unlike many others, who dismissed him.

And do try and read a little more closely. My analysis has zip to do with my supporting Obama. Had you bothered to read the OP you would have seen that I clearly stated that Hillary would beat McCain as well. But of course, you're trying to turn this into a partisan thing, when it has absolutely nothing to do with partisanship.

And yes, of course overconfidence and arrogance can be fatal. That's not in my OP. Look how overconfident you are in YOUR absolutist statement about how ALL factions of the repuke party will be united behind McCain.

[cboy4]

11. Cali, please don't talk to me in a condescending manner.

It irritates me.

My point is nobody should underestimate the dirty tricks machine known as the Republican Party.

They could nominate a monkey and it's my opinion that they'd rally behind it in order to remain in power.

You could turn out to be right, but so could I.

You don't have a crystal ball any more than I do.

I think it will not be a cakewalk in November for Democrats.

This has nothing to do with partisanship (Hillary is not my candidate).

It has to do with recent history.

Hanging chads and all.

[cali]

14. That goes both ways.

I found your post very condescending. And I haven't said it will be a cakewalk, I've pointed out why both the environment and the candidate, make it possible, even likely for a dem to win this year. Adn you seem to have forgotten that 2006 is just as germane as 2000 or 2004. I believe it's more so. Sure it will be a tough fight, but all the objective indications are encouraging.

[noiretextatique]

22. so true...just look at the monkey they did nominate

all it took was a little disenfranchisement, and scotus' intervention in florida.

[Danger Mouse]

19. The Rep. is talking out of his ass.

Many rank-and-file Republicans are as sick of Bush and Iraq as we are. McCain does NOT represent change.

This is the McCain the American people will see, once we've sewn up the nomination, and turn our attention to the dinosaur. Obama referenced 'Iraq for 100 years' at Thursday's debate. That line alone will KILL McCain with military families, rank-and-file repubs and dems, and independents.
Clinging to Bush will NOT help him. Right now he is trying to woo skeptical conservatives...but he is giving us lots of ammo to use on him.
I am CONFIDENT we can beat this man...he is no Bush. But I am not taking it for granted either.

[cboy4]

20. You don't know that he's talking out of his ass. I can totally

see Republicans rallying around McCain because of the big bad liberal media trying to take down one of their own.

Watch out for the dirty tricks Elrond.

Do you know the Republican rep. I mentioned used Obama's middle name during the show, much to the groan of the audience?

There will be that, the madrassa, etc., etc.

You just wait. The Republicans haven't even started.

[Danger Mouse]

21. I know there will be dirty tricks, and there will be baseless and slimy attacks.

But we can STILL WIN.
And do you honestly see people who are sick of Bush and Iraq rallying around someone who literally offers nothing but more of the same? McCain will fool some, but he will NOT fool MOST unless we LET him.
It means hard work on our part as a party. We can't just rest on our laurels and expect the American people to hand us a victory.
We have to be vigilant for voter fraud, we have to be ready to parry slime attacks, and be ready to counter with truth. We CANNOT take swiftboating lying down like John Kerry did.
We must be ready to FIGHT, and I feel that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are ready and eager.
YOU just wait. The Republicans haven't even started...but neither have we. McCain has many, many juicy scandals to pick from.

AND JUST WAIT TILL AMERICA SEES THIS.

[crispini]

7. Recommended!

[terrya]

8. The American people are not going to choose McCain.

That is simply not going to happen. John McCain has hitched his wagon to George W. Bush. John McCain has hitched his wagon to a man with 29% approval ratings. All the Democrats (whether it's the Obama campaign or Clinton campaign) need to do to drive that point home is to use the pic of McCain hugging Bush in the ads for the general election campaign. They say that a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, that pic says a lot.

John McCain is Bob Dole redux. Some old, angry Republican who is deeply distrusted by the right wing wing of the Republican Party. Which, for all intents and purposes, controls the Party.

I completely agree. This is ours to lose at this point. Stay focused, unite behind the candidate and the White House will be ours again.

[Danger Mouse]

18. Using this picture and 'Iraq for 100 years' and all McCain can count on is...

the 29% vote.

[Jim__]

10. I agree that McCain is a flawed candidate; but so was bush.

Bush was a military deserter with a record of multiple arrests, the last one of which came to light only a few days before the election. How the hell did he ever get elected? Easy. The media refused to touch his military or arrest record. They jumped all over trumped up charges about Gore, the liar. Don't underestimate the impact the media has on an election. The media is effectively a monolith and if they decide to give McCain a pass and attack the dem candidate, it will have an effect. How much of an effect remains to be seen.

[cboy4]

12. Yes, exactly.

There are so many variables.

[Alamom]

13. Yes he was and many flawed repukes continue to "*GET" the GE. Bush got 2.

* saying he won goes against everything I believe, but he's been there twice, regardless.

[cali]

15. I thought he was formidable.

He was a son of a president who was connected with the repug saint, Ronald Reagan. He had the bush machine behind him. He was a governor. He came off to many as friendly and down to earth. He veered toward the middle. And I disagree about the media. Have you forgotten their treatment of Dole and Bush Sr? And every indication is that the media love affair with McCain is on rocky terrain. McCain is not telegenic, or sunny. His own persona is tarnished.

[Jim__]

29. The man was both a deserter and a convicted criminal.

Do you think any Democrat with that record, running for president, would not have had those issues raised every time their name was brought up?

It's true he had a powerful father and came from a rich family. His record made him Paris Hilton in a suit. Did you ever read about his visit to (I think it was) Alabama where he never made his obligatory report to the National Guard? He completely trashed the house he stayed in and left it that way when he went back to Texas. Like I said, Paris Hilton, if the press would have bothered to report on it.

[Danger Mouse]

17. The important distinction is that Bush's approval rating is now in the toilet.

The american people do not want 'more of the same.' John McCain has said he would keep us in Iraq for '100 years.' Americans want OUT of Iraq, and McCains ass-backwards view on this issue will cost him DEARLY.
Americans do NOT want more Bush policies, or Bush wouldn't be so widely hated in America.
We only need remind the American people, through ads and debates, that this so-called Maverick Senator...

has been in bush's pocket from day one.
Obama is clever and sharp. He would skewer McCain in debates, and look good doing it.
Hillary is feisty and quick-witted. She would barbecue McCain and serve him up on toast.
Either of these candidates can destroy McCain.
THIS RACE IS OURS TO LOSE.
However, it CAN be lost if we don't make every effort to get out the vote and show people the REAL McCain, because we can't depend on the media to do it for us...
but i doubt McCain will be media darling.

[Danger Mouse]

16. K and motherfuckin R!!

I've been saying for a long time, 'Iraq for 100 years' and the 'bomb Iran' song are both enough to sink his campaign BY THEMSELVES.
if we can't beat this decrepit nutjob, we don't DESERVE the presidency.

[Emit]

23. One other point, cali

McCain can't win without crossover votes of Independents and Dems alike, and he won't get them just for being anti-Obama or anti-Clinton. He has to be worthy of the crossover vote and he is not, IMHO. I agree wholeheartedly, John McCain is NOT a formidable candidate. Thanks for your post.

[ClericJohnPreston]

24. This is true

"If we can't win the White House this year, against this piss poor candidate, we should simply turn out the lights on the dem party."

Of course, if that happens, it will be due to be people flocking to the right and center of the Democratic Party. There wil be no representative of the CORE traditional base of the Democrats, it's heart and soul of LEFT-WING liberalism. You know, that dirty word to Republicans, LIBERALISM.

We have only passing references to liberalism and everyone trying to avoid the word, liberal.

If we were to lose this Election, a horror almost too inconceivable to ponder, then this Party had better get back to the program, PROGRESSIVE POPULISM and a true LEFT WING alternative to the abominable Right!

[Irishonly]

25. When Have Repukes Voted For The Best Candidate

I think his spike in the polls have something to do with all of the whining about the Time's article. The MSM fell into place trying to make it about sex when it is about being in bed with lobbyists. If the lobbyist part keeps getting exposed it will not matter how much of a so-called straight talker he is. He will lose moderate and liberal independents. The democrats cannot do what they did in 2004 when the mud started flying at Kerry. Obama is going to have hurdles, he won't walk to the WH and no one should think he will. McCain will have right wing talk radio behind him or he will for now and I seriously question the intelligence of people listening to Billo, Limpballs and other ilk.

[ginnyinWI]

26. Obama will have to work for it,

this is very true. He can never take it for granted, even when he sees McCain floundering. But I don't think he will. He's been running a great campaign so far and I think they'll go the distance.

The only thing McCain can hope for is that the Repubs will rally around him just to oppose the Dem candidate. For this reason Hillary would be a better opponent for him, because they hate/fear her. Obama is new and they weren't expecting to have to confront him. Yes, they will slime him. But he's got the money advantage and the organization on the ground. I don't think he'll blow it.

There are more registered Dems than Repubs now. The Indies will go for Obama this time. He's got probably ten times the money McCain has. Advantage: Obama.

[grantcart]

27. k and r

[Eurobabe]

28. McLame has one foot in the grave

Which is why we should worry more about who he picks as a VP. But I feel we are going to beat him, he doesn't play well on TeeVee. He is a monumental bore along the lines of Bob Dole.