Absoluetely best- and I mean the best- scenario Clinton can be in past 3/4

[adoraz]

Now unless something **major** happens between now and then, this is the absolutely best case scenario I can see Clinton being in after March 4.

I believe this is going to be a big stretch also, but I am doing this to see what would happen if her best case scenario played out.


Current pledged delegate counts (I am using the AP count- it is much more up to date than CNN. CNN hasn't even finished some super Tuesday counts)

Obama: 1193
Clinton: 1034
Obama lead: 159 pledged delegates

So state by state pledged delegates:
Texas 193
Ohio 141
Rhode Island 21
Vermont 15

Texas- Lets say Clinton wins by 10% in Texas, and also gets 10% more delegates. Once again, this is incredibly unlikely when you factor in things such as the caucus, the fact they are close in the polls, and the fact that Texas would make it harder for Hillary to pick up many more delegates given the rules. For the sake of this topic though, lets give her the 10% delegate lead anyways.
So she would have a 19 delegate advantage in Texas

Ohio- I'll give her a 15% lead here, and assume she gets 15% more of the delegates.
So she would have a 21 delegate advantage in Ohio

RI- Best case scenario a 20% lead here, and lets assume she gets 20% more of the delegates.
So she would have a 4 delegate advantage in RI

Vermont- Absolutely best she can do here is break even, and even that is unlikely
No delegate advantage in Vermont

So, on Tuesday she would lead Obama's count by 44 pledged for the day. This is assuming she pulls off double digits in 3 of the 4 states.

So after Tuesday, Obama would still lead by 115 pledged delegates under this scenario.

Since a lot of people would argue Supers should be included, Obama would still lead by 55 delegates.


After this would be Mississippi and Wyoming a few days later, where Obama is likely to pick up some delegates. For the sake of this thread though, lets just assume neither picks up any in these 2.

Then there is a month and a half wait until Pennsylvania. Obama would lead by 55 delegates and 115 pledged.




So, my question is, lets say Clinton has an amazing day March 4 and gets some gigantic victories in my best case scenario.

What would both Obama and Clinton supporters think of the race after this? Would people still think Clinton should drop out? Would she start picking up momentum? Given the rest of the calender Obama would more than likely come away with more delegates anyways, but maybe not too many more. Would everyone still like to see this continue for a month and half in PA?

I am an Obama supporter, but I just wanted to hear what people think about this scenario.

Here is the state lineup BTW-

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

And as I said over and over, the odds of this scenario happening I believe are incredibly unlikely and I think they will break even March 4, but for now lets just pretend all this happens.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Kucinich supporter here

Thanks for this detailed analysis. Since my guy is out of the Presidential race, I'm sort of watching things from the sidelines. I'm surprised that no one has commented or wanted to start a discussion yet. I hope someone does, as I'm curious as to what will be said.

[adoraz]

2. yeah I'm interested in knowing too...

seems most people are too busy arguing about silly stuff that likely won't have any impact on the race. :p

I want to see what both Hillary and Obama supporters would think about this.

[adoraz]

3. anyone else want to comment on this?

[BuyingThyme]

4. Welcome to DU, Adoraz !

Nice post.

:hi:

[adoraz]

5. thanks :)

[BuyingThyme]

6. kcik

[Mme. Defarge]

7. K&R

and welcome to DU, mon brave!

:yourock:

[thesubstanceofdreams]

8. Thanks for the math, good post

One little comment. Vermont, unlike most states, assigns a substantial delegate pool to the statewide winner of the primary (I don't remember the exact number). Since it is extremely unlikely Hillary will win Vermont, Obama stands to easily several delegates there.

[adoraz]

10. good to know

especially considering he has some a big lead there. anyone know how many delegates it is, and if any other states do this?

[goodgd_yall]

9. Thanks for this info

I have been intending to do a little exercise like this myself. Just want to add that if the Florida and/or Michigan delegates are counted, that's another story.

I'm not saying what Hillary should do, but, if the results in Ohio and Texas are close, or even if just one of them ends up a tie with Hillary the winner of the other, I, personally, would feel that the majority of voters have let it be known that they want Obama to be the Democratic nominee. I might at that point just feel that its futile for Hillary Clinton to keep going and grow weary of the campaigning continuing.

I have to say, I have mixed feelings about non-Democrats having such a big voice in who gets to be the Democratic presidential nominee. On the other hand, having independents and crossover Republicans be part of the process gives us the ability to see how well a candidate might fare in the general election, so pragmatically, it's a good thing.

[adoraz]

12. yeah if this happens I personally believe she will continue

I think if she continues after this, the mess will continue with Obama bringing more delegates to the convention but Hillary complaining about Florida and Michigan.

Thats why even though I think Obama will win, I want it to be as quick as possible. McCain needs to be the next focus.

[creeksneakers2]

11. She has to win Texas and Ohio by much more than t hat

The only reason for her to stay in until March 4 is that Obama has not been tested yet and he's starting to be. There's still a remote chance Obama will collapse. Otherwise, unless she can turn the race around on March 4 she ought to bow out.