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New poll has Obama up in both TX and OH (TX by 14%)

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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:25 PM
Original message
New poll has Obama up in both TX and OH (TX by 14%)
Poll by Decision Analyst (link: http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/decision-analyst-obama-texas-ohio-mccain-022308005.html)

Democratic Candidate....TX.......OH
Barack Obama..............57%.....54%
Hillary Clinton...............43%.....46%


The below info is from the Poll Analysis:

Decision Analyst is the first pollster to proclaim Barack Obama as the leader in either of the two big states that vote on March 4: Texas, Ohio.

They say that they carefully selected the demographic compositions used in their polls. Most pollsters thus far have not been fully representing the support Barack Obama gets at the polls because the demographic composition of those going out to the polls tend to be under-represented in traditional polling based on previous turnout.

According to the Democratic Texas poll by Decision Analyst:

“As the second most populous state, Texas’ delegate count is large, and an Obama win of the magnitude indicated by our survey would most likely propel Obama to the Democratic nomination,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst. “It is still two weeks to the March 4 election, and many things can happen, but as of today, Obama has a commanding lead.”

The issues of greatest importance to those who plan to vote in the Democratic Primary are (in order of importance): making healthcare more affordable (chosen by 35%); making the economy stronger and better (chosen by 29%); bringing the troops home from Iraq (28%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (17%); reducing gasoline prices and the cost of energy (16%).

According to the Democratic Ohio poll by Decision Analyst:

The issues of greatest importance to those who plan to vote in the Democratic Primary are (in order of importance): providing good healthcare for everyone (chosen by 36%); bringing the troops home from Iraq (31%); making the economy stronger and better (31%); reducing unemployment, creating more job opportunities (23%); reducing gasoline prices and the cost of energy (19%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (18%).

According to the Republican Texas poll by Decision Analyst:

The issues of greatest importance to those who will vote in the Republican Primary are very different from the Democratic voters. The key Republican issues: protecting the U.S. from illegal immigration (39%); fighting terrorism (31%); making the economy stronger and better (29%); character (honesty, ethics, and integrity of candidate) (27%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (19%).

According to the Republican Ohio poll by Decision Analyst:

The issues of greatest importance to those who will vote in the Republican Primary are: fighting terrorism (31%); protecting the U.S. from illegal immigration (30%); making the economy stronger and better (29%); character (honesty, ethics, and integrity of candidate) (28%); leadership (ability to manage government, work with world leaders, get things done) (21%); reducing dependence on foreign oil (18%).
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
1. Poll isn't new. And has been shouted down as newbie and unsubstantiated
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. can you say by whom
Edited on Sat Feb-23-08 07:45 PM by mythyc
if it has been shouted down, it would be great to see multiple sources saying so and why.

Also, the dates listed are 2/20-2/21. How isn't that new??

edit: type-o
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
11. No it hasn't
The only person who has shouted it down as unsubstaintiated is you.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I 'shouted' it down a couple of days ago.
Edited on Sat Feb-23-08 07:51 PM by grantcart
I went on to their website and read alot of stuff they were doing and it was all market testing. These are the people that you go

to when you want to find out if whole wheat bread would sell better in a yello wrap or a brown one.

They are doing this to try and branch out but in a primary this complex you cannot be trusted as a rookie.

Still go 'bama

http://www.decisionanalyst.com/Index.dai
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:53 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. I would like to see the cross tabs
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. now wait one second there....
"can't be trusted as a rookie"

are you saying that it takes experience to succeed in U.S. politics (polling)?! jk =)

went to their site, didn't see indications of the phoning method. anyone have info on that? it'd make a difference to be sure...
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #12
22. I disagree. Marketing research firms know how to poll for demographic differences.
It is their bread and butter. Political polling, particularly in primaries as most often inaccurate because the demographics were screwed up. An experienced marketing research firm is less likely to make that mistake, imo. I think the numbers of this outfit are sound.
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 09:30 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. any word on what products they've done marketing research for?
it'd be interesting to compare how successful that's been to the potential here...
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tyne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:30 PM
Response to Original message
2. And they're
only calling those with land-lines.
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. do you have a link for that? (landlines)
I'm curious because this line in the poll analysis makes me wonder how they're representing previously unrepresented demographics:

"They say that they carefully selected the demographic compositions used in their polls. Most pollsters thus far have not been fully representing the support Barack Obama gets at the polls because the demographic composition of those going out to the polls tend to be under-represented in traditional polling based on previous turnout."

If that is the case, the wide margin b/w this and other polls makes sense to me because of how Obama's margins of victory have been so much wider in nearly every state (WI, VA, WA especially jump out in immediate memory) than any of the polls projected. That would makes sense if *they* only used the conventional method of landlines, given leave out cell phone users b/w 20 and 40 yrs old who don't have or use landlines (my house and most of my freinds' too have one for the wireless connection, but never answer it or don't even have a ringer, for example).

It's interesting, to be sure, and from what I hear from blogs and reporters in Texas, as well as from a lot of friends I have there, seems to reflect the strong wave of support he's been building there. thoughts?
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ErnestoG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:30 PM
Response to Original message
3. Spectacular!
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ingac70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:31 PM
Response to Original message
4. Wow... Hope this poll is right.
That would be beautiful if he won those states with margins like that!
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:33 PM
Response to Original message
5. We'll have to see about this poll
They're new to politics, I understand.
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Sara Bradi Donating Member (281 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:35 PM
Response to Original message
6. I predict he will take TX by more than 10%, OH by 2%
So

- TX = 55-45 for Obama
- OH = 51-49 for Obama
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:37 PM
Response to Original message
7. Now we see why she went nuts today. Internals aren't looking good
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SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. that's exactly what I said in a different thread
BT-we are pretty astute politicos round 'chere
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 08:09 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. My mind boggles on how much I have learned here from all of you
:toast:
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. touche, i mean
ditto, i mean right back atchya, i mean "werd G"

pass the peanuts
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 07:52 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. These numbers really wouldn't surprise me
All Barack needs to do is come within 5-10 points in the white vote and he'll win the state.

And given what happened in Wisconsin, I don't think that's unreasonable.
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workinclasszero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #7
25. I think you got it right
Sorry Hillary.:nopity::nopity::nopity:

Not really.:evilgrin:
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sloppyjoe25s Donating Member (664 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
16. Wow - poll methodology looks good too!
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DeadManInc Donating Member (844 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 08:04 PM
Response to Original message
17. I will be surprised
if he does that good here in Ohio.
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 08:22 PM
Response to Original message
20. wasn't there a second poll that looked like this?
from the last day or so? wasn't there another with Obama way out in front? or is this the same one?

If there are 2... that probably means something.
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. I've been looking for another of its sort but haven't seen one.
most OH polls have her ahead, though he has closed the gap, significantly at that. Most recent ones I've been seeing average her holding on by 7-9%. two weeks ago that margin was over double. and 4 weeks over triple.
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. yeah I think this is just the one I saw this morning then
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 09:35 PM
Response to Original message
26. Gobama!
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 09:53 PM
Response to Original message
27. I think both states have tightened but not by that much.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
28. Those may be construed as out-lying polls but they are most definitely indicative of trend.
And Obama's got the trend big time.
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mythyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Feb-23-08 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. love the cartoon in your signature
=)
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