Clinton leading Obama in OH by 8 points

[OzarkDem]

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/op022508.pdf

[OzarkDem]

1. kick

[rodeodance]

20. REC

[scheming daemons]

2. Thanks! Good news..... Anything less than a 15-point win by Hillary is a win for Obama....

....

[lse7581011]

3. What Happened?

to the 20 + points of a month ago?

[cali]

4. and other polls have her leading by less

In any case, he's cut the lead drastically over the last couple of weeks, and still has almost a week to pull even or overtake her. I remember your claim just a few days ago that no one liked Obama in OH, and that she'd win big there. Doesn't look like there's ANY chance of that now. He'll either lose narrowly or win narrowly. And she's now tied or behind in ALL the latest TX polls. She's going to lose by 30 pts in Vermont. She should win RI by 10-15 though.

She's done.

[OzarkDem]

7. This is the Ohio Poll

more accurate.

Obama is going to lose Ohio. He's peaked.

[Lerkfish]

12. yeah, the last 11 victories in a row means he's "peaked"

:sarcasm:

do you folks even listen to yourselves? amazing.

[OhioChick]

24. You just said that Polls Were Basically Useless....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4794297

[Lerkfish]

38. unless it benefits their candidate, which btw, is true of most people

I'm up front in saying ALL polls are inherently flawed, and I think this primary has proven that they aren't good predictors of outcome by any stretch.
but I will give them some slack and say that MOST people on any side will tout polls that benefit them and poo poo those that dont'.
human nature.

[democrattotheend]

40. It's a few days older though

And does not measure the impact of the events of this past weekend. This race is so fluid that any poll more than 2 days old is useless.

I'll be curious to see how the polls look in a few days, to see if the debate changed anything one way or the other.

[Renew Deal]

45. The poll says Edwards will get 9%, so we know it's wrong.

The poll is wrong in the 18-30 age group.
It says they're tied 49-49. That's wrong.
It says that Obama is winning men by 3. That doesn't hold up.

Also, Edwards support has typically gone to Obama. That means Obama could easily tie at worst.

[CTD]

46. ROFL. "He peaked."

Please don't Bogart that bong. Pass it down here.

[enid602]

53. that's why

That's why BO supporters are so anxious to see all opposition collapse early on.

[cali]

21. Really? How do you know that it's the most accurate?

What's their record? Sorry, new Rasmussen,PPP and other polls released this week show him within 4-6 points. NO polling now shows him more than 8 pts back.

My guess is he ekes out a narrow win in OH.

[Independent-Voter]

5. Cool - he's cut her lead in half in a week.

[NeedleCast]

6. Very small sample size

Oops, I pooched it! The sample size was 500+, I read it wrong. I R not smhart.

[OzarkDem]

8. I think her lead is still around 10-12%

Obama isn't going to win Ohio. Its a real primary.

[MissHoneychurch]

So what were the other primaries?

Fake?

[OzarkDem]

13. You have to be a registered voter

So, yes, in a way, many of the caucuses were easily manipulated by people who weren't even registered to vote.

[Lerkfish]

14. you may be very dissapointed in Ohio, then.

Obama completely filled the Nutter center near dayton on Monday. capacity 12,000. How did Clinton do?

[OzarkDem]

19. People who attend rallies aren't always registered Dem voters

But I think you know that.

[Lerkfish]

32. well, we'll have to see who's right after March 4th.

I do think Ohio will be closer than Texas (which Obama will win), but I don't think even a close win in Ohio would be enough to save Clinton's viability.


I'm sorry, you guys put up a valiant, albeit dirty, fight here at DU for your candidate. Too bad it wasn't enough

[Windy]

25. He also had 15,000 at the 5th Third center in conservative cincy... that says a lot! n/t

[Kukesa]

34. She filled the Wayne High School gym with

1,500 supporters.

Oh, and don't forget the 13,000 who showed in Cinci to support Obama, too.

[MissHoneychurch]

17. Do you really believe that so many Repubs took the trouble

to vote for Obama only to kick out Hillary? I don't say there aren't any who didn't do that but I believe by the turnout number there aren't really counting.

[MNDemNY]

49. Not "fake" just drug-addled.

[NeedleCast]

11. I'm not a Hillary Supporter

Just laying down the facts. I think you're right, I think her lead is probably still in the 10-12% range but those leads seem to have this ability to evaporate over a few days (see: Texas).

And there you have it folks, straight from the Hillary camp: Ohio Matters!

[cali]

18. LOL!

None of this week's Ohion polls reflect that. And your wishful thinking is NOT reliable data.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

[EFerrari]

23. RCP has her up by about 7%

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
RCP Average 02/16 - 02/25 - 49.3 42.5 Clinton +6.8
Rasmussen 02/25 - 02/25 862 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
SurveyUSA 02/23 - 02/25 790 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
PPP (D) 02/23 - 02/24 600 LV 50 46 Clinton +4.0
The Ohio Poll 02/21 - 02/24 529 LV 47 39 Clinton +8.0
Quinnipiac 02/18 - 02/23 741 LV 51 40 Clinton +11.0
ABC/Wash Post 02/16 - 02/20 611 LV 50 43 Clinton +7.0
See All Ohio Democratic Primary Polling Data


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

[cali]

15. You would be wrong. Rasmussen: C 48% O 43%

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

With just a week to go until the crucial March 4 Democratic Presidential Primaries, Barack Obama continues to gain ground on Hillary Clinton in Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Clinton earning 48% of the Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary vote. That’s unchanged from a week ago. Barack Obama’s support has grown to 43%. That’s up from 40% last week and 38% the week before.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary

And that's not the only new poll this week that reflects that the candidates are now only seperated by a few points.

[mohc]

9. This is the poll with John Edwards at 9%

While I would love to see Edwards do that well, I have a hard time believing that hes going to get 9% when he has been getting less than 1% everywhere else.

[Lerkfish]

10. down from 20

which means Obama will sweep, if any correlation can be made from previous primary/poll comparisons.

[cali]

22. I actually think she'll take Rhody

but I'm thinking Obama pulls out a narrow win in OH and wins TX by 8-10 He'll win VT by 30. What does she do then?

[NJSecularist]

16. Yeah, uh, ok... John Edwards isn't going to get 9%

This poll is wishful thinking.

SurveyUSA has been much more accurate than this pollster will ever be.

[yourguide]

26. She's only up by 6% today

per survey USA

rasmussen only has her up +5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html#polls

She was up as much as 29%

I wouldnt be celebrating if I were you guys.

[cali]

27. At this point, up is down for many Hillary supporters here

the OP was predicting she'd crush him in OH- last week.

[casus belli]

31. Yep.

"She's up by fifteen". "She's up by 10". "Well, she's still up by 4". "She's only behind by 2 and the margin of error is +/-3". "So what if Hillary lost by 8, who needs that crummy state anyway?".

[DesEtoiles]

28. was this polling done after Hillary's debate debacle?

[DesEtoiles]

29. Hillary is not going to win the nomination.

[Demagitator]

30. kick

:kick:

[Sensitivity]

Congratulations to Clinton Supporters! Good job if you can hold Ohio

[Fluffdaddy]

36. This were it stops.......We are holding the line

Texas/Ohio/Pennsylvania............ Clinton Country

[cali]

39. She's not ahead anymore in TX. It's either tied or

he's in the lead. He'll take TX. He's been gaining by every measure in every poll. In PA she's down to a 6 pt. lead. It's essentially over on Tuesday.

[Fluffdaddy]

52. Trust the daily polls if you want. :)

[Sensitivity]

33. Congratulations to Clinton Supporters! Good job if you can hold Ohio

[Political Heretic]

35. That works for me!

[madrchsod]

37. 15% are going to vote for either

edwards,other,or are undecided....interesting

[yellerpup]

41. Poll taken before the debate on 2/26/08 eom

[Greyskye]

42. With a "Keith Number" of 8.5%

Statistical Dead Heat.

[Renew Deal]

47. And an Edwards number of 9%

Edwards isn't going to break 1%.

[mckeown1128]

43. That is not enough to win her the nomination.. nt

[BootinUp]

44. I'm hoping she increases that number

I will toast anything at 10 or higher.

[ORDem]

48. Good grief, that polls is about 3 days old, pre-debate. n/t

[kentuck]

50. She's trying to hold on to Ohio...

If she loses there, it is probably over, for real.

[totodeinhere]

51. You seem to cherry pick polls that put Clinton in the best light.

What about some of the other polls that show that Clinton has a diminishing lead in Ohio with the momentum going to Obama? And why don't you bring up polls in Texas that show Obama ahead there now?