Net delegate take for O on Tuesday.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

In Texas, trend lines show O with a 55-45% win at least, which will mine delegate heavy areas and give him roughly 70 of 126 in the primary, for a net gain of 14 delegates. Add in the caucus that night, and we're looking at him taking at least 40 of those 67, given his support and the famous O-campaign's caucus organizational skills, for an additional net gain of 13. That puts him at +27 for the night in Texas, which might be a conservative estimate if typical O turnout occurs. If that turnout happens, it could even be a Wisconsin-like rout.

Ohio is a tougher call. Trend lines favor O, and O obviously is closing on H. Turnout is crucial here, and typical O turnout will mean a victory for him. I think we're looking at a 4-5% O win, possibly more if that usual last-week-before-the-primary O surge happens, but suppressed turnout could conceivably give H a narrow win. My guess is that O takes it, but only by 2-5 delegates. Let's make it a net gain of 3, for the sake of argument. Again, though, if there's the typical late surge and typical O turnout, then he could net 7-10 in Ohio.

Vermont's fifteen delegates are harder to pin down. Two polls show O up big, but the gap may have narrowed. He's got the organizational advantage there, though. Looks like an 8-7 delegate win at worst for him. Let's call it a net gain of 1.

Rhode Island's 21 delegates should break toward H. At the moment, she has a nice lead there, and this state probably will be her last win of the campaign. I think the most she'll net there is 3.

It looks like a net Obama gain on the night of 28 at least, but 40 isn't impossible.

[Pab Sungenis]

1. I think HIllary is going to win Ohio

by the narrowest of margins. She's banking a lot on that state, and isn't going to give it up without a fight. Call it a net gain of two to five delegates for Hillary in Ohio.

That still leaves Obama widening his lead overall coming out of the night, though.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

3. Yeah, OH is a tough call. My guess, though, is that when you factor in...

turnout (meaning the underpolled young vote for O) that O will win. That's putting a lot on the young vote, though.

[cali]

2. Our resident expert in Vermont, Eric Davis, in the Burlington Free Press

explained the other day that due to Vermont's arcane delegate distribution system, Obama will get almost all the VT delegates if he wins big, as expected. He should get 10 of Vermont's pledged delegates. I'll try and find the article.

[ShadowLiberal]

4. Ohio will be close, but I think Hillary will win

Ohio will be very close I think, with the polls I'm seeing at the moment I have a hard time seeing Obama pull off even a narrow win, but I do think it'll be close there, with both within 5 to 10% of each other. I'm not sure who the delegate allocation system is likely to favor in Ohio, anyone know?

Obama will probably win Texas considering that he's starting to poll a few percentage points ahead of Hillary now. From what I've read though, apparently the popular vote in Texas will mean nothing other then bragging rights, as all of the delegates are decided by district I think.

Obama will definitely win Vermont from the polls coming out of there. In Rhode Island Obama is behind something like 10 points so he'll probably lose that, but both of those aren't very big states, and will probably get about as much attention as Wyoming's republican caucus did, or will get a bit of attention while they count the votes in Texas and Ohio and that's it.