Help Me, HRC Supporters.

[Pryderi]

One of the main reasons I support Obama over Hillary is that I believe he has a better chance creating a big Democratic majority in Congress.

I don't believe Hillary, if she wins, would have the same effect. Do you?

[xultar]

1. Well some Republicans see him as conservative so yes, you might be right.

[totodeinhere]

19. That bastion of Republicanism, the National Journal,

says that Obama is the most liberal senator in the whole Senate. So I doubt if many Republicans see Obama as a conservative. In fact, I don't see how any reasonable observer could think that Obama is a conservative. One reason why I support Obama is because he is more liberal than Clinton is.

[xultar]

24. Well, I think the Republican Obama supporter that was welcomed said that...It seemed that

all the congratulatory replies meant that y'all agreed with it.

I'm just saying what an Obama supporter said.

You don't like it. Talk to him.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

2. Bush is the EFFECT that will/is creating the Democratic Majority

[Pryderi]

3. Part of it is due to Bush, but Obama's ability to inspire voters will create a

LARGER majority.

[Windy]

5. and his demeanor and method of handling attacks. He is mature, intelligent and measured. nT

[ElsewheresDaughter]

7. do you remeber all the youth vote that came out for Kerry?

[Pryderi]

10. Yeah...because Kerry is sooo much like Obama in charisma...

[BOSSHOG]

4. I'm not sure I follow the logic

I will vote for every democrat on my ballot and urge others to join me. I have a hard time rationalizing voting for one local candidate over another depending on who we nominate for president. So I suggest you look for another big reason to support someone.

[Pryderi]

8. I will vote for Hillary if she's nominated. Many independents won't. Also, when Obama

shows up in states to campaign in the GE, many local candidates will be there and benefit.

[BOSSHOG]

12. Okay

so if Clinton wins the nomination and campaigns around the country local candidates will avoid her?

[Pryderi]

17. In some of the close, local races, yes. People won't want to be seen with her. Much like McCain

won't like the pic of him and Bush hugging.

[ieoeja]

75. But she will not campaign around the country.

In 1992 her husband's primary campaign strategy was to only campaign in states he thought he could win.

In 1992 her husband's general election campaign strategy was to only campaign in states he thought he could win.

In 1996 her husband's general election campaign strategy was to only campaign in states he thought he could win.

In 2008 her primary campaign strategy has been to only campaign in states she believes she can win.

I think we can safely predict her general election campaign strategy would be to only campaign in states she believes she can win. All those down-ticket candidates in states she concedes will be on their own.

In case you're thinking, "but at least it got us the White House in 1992 and 1996," I have to add:

1. Gore tried this exact same campaign strategy in 2000.
2. Kerry tried this exact same campaign strategy in 2004.
3. Hillary tried this exact same campaign strategy in this primary, and it doesn't seem to be working.

All the more recent electoral results suggest this strategy no longer works.

[Independent-Voter]

27. Obama will swing the indepedents. HRC will drive them away in droves. It's that simple

Typically the pubs and dems split about 80% of the electorate, so whomever can get the majority of that middle 20% usually wins. Do you honestly think the Her Shrillness is going to draw anyone in, especially when she's been getting her ass kicked by 20-30% by the Democrats in the primaries since Super Tuesday? Most rational people don't.

[Omega3]

39. I'm sorry but the Repukes have been screwing with our primaries all season long, their contest was

settled much earlier, there's alot of open primaries. The reason they don't want Hillary is she's vetted, she has taken the best of the GOP hate machine and come back swinging. They know this and fear that. And then we have the other contestant who keeps talking about "reaching across the aisle" and "bringing everyone to the table" and "bipartisianship". They love that, another weak, feeble Democrat cut from the typical mold. The Democratic Party needs to start kicking ass and taking names after a moron in the WH who's run this country for the last 7 years like he was 'elected' with a 98% majority just to bring the country back towards the middle.

[Independent-Voter]

47. Look - I do a hell of alot of business with folks from both sides of the aisle. There's not RW

conspiracy out there concerning voting during the primaries. There just isn't. To be honest, both parties would have trouble organizing a lunch date much less some effort to swing a primary one way or the other.

HRC's corrosive as hell, to the point that my partners on both sides of the aisle can't stand her. They are generally neutral to postive about Obama, and that's about as good as you could possibly ask for.

[Omega3]

50. keep talking freeper, if HC is so corrosive why is the delagate count so close then? Who the hell is

voting for her?

[Independent-Voter]

80. Her delegate count is largely based on those early victories in the primaries. Obama's kicked her

ass in every primary since Super Tuesday by 25-30%.

At this point, the only voting block she has left are low-educated, post-menopausal white women.

Any more questions?

[maddiejoan]

6. Why do you assume an Independant or Republican

voting for Obama won't come to the polls --vote for Obama--and then vote a straight Republican down ticket?

Frankly --I think that's far more likely --I'd rather have Republicans sit at home.

[Pryderi]

9. If Hillary's the nominee, you won't see Republicans "sitting at home".

[maddiejoan]

18. sure ya will

you have any real evidence otherwise?

I mean besides popular mythology.

[Pryderi]

20. Are you saying that republicans view both Hillary and Obama the same way?

[BOSSHOG]

23. Members of the crime family

commonly referred as the republican party will intensely hate either Obama or Clinton. They will be led like lemmings with their talking points and the hate will be stoked daily from the right wing noise machine. It doesn't matter who the candidate is relative to the republican "view."

[yardwork]

41. That's what I think will happen, based on the history of previous elections.

I think that choosing not to support Hillary just because Republicans don't like her is sort of self-defeating. By the time the Republican smear-machine gets through, Republicans won't like Obama, either, if he's the nominee.

Either Democrat will have to contend with the smear machine. I lean toward Hillary because I think she is more effective at combating the smear machine.

[BOSSHOG]

69. I contend

that if Obama gets the nomination they will hate him even more irrationally because he would have taken their opportunity to hate Clinton as the candidate all summer and fall. If Obama is the nominee he better make nice real fast with Bill and Hill because he will need them active and in the field for him. The empty suit routine won't be as successful in the GE as it has been so far.

Hello My Friend. I have commenced YARDWORK this early spring. We had a bad storm a few weeks back, lost a couple more trees, so the brush pile cleanup is a never ending routine. Thankfully we have a very user friendly land fill in the county.

[yardwork]

72. Hello back to you, dear BOSSHOG!

I'm sorry to hear about your trees. I always try to look at the *bright* side - fewer trees means more sunshine and space for more plants!

I agree with you that Obama is going to need the Clintons. I suspect that Obama knows that much better than many of his supposed supporters here in DU. At least, I hope he does.

[BOSSHOG]

73. You're right

about the space and sunshine and the biggest tree we lost really hosed up my mowing pattern so that's a plus. We have plenty of trees and I'm keeping some sprouts for new growth.

[yardwork]

74. I wish you many gorgeous plants this summer!

[maddiejoan]

77. By the time the MSM is done with Obama

They will probably view him worse.

[griffi94]

21. well i surely can't speak for everybody in the state of texas

but both of parents voted in the primary for obama, but will vote mccain in november.
when i asked why the were voting for obama (i know they don't like him) my mother told me
she just doesn't want hillary to win. so some of the people voting for him in the primary won't be voting for him in the general.

[Independent-Voter]

31. HRC will bring out the Pub vote in droves. You're an idiot if you can't see that.

Obama will either swing the moderates/independents, or they'll just stay home and pout. Either way, he'll beat McCain by a safe margin. Not a landslide, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was at least 7-9% more nationally.

[maddiejoan]

76. No need to insult me

especially when you have nothing to back up your speculation.

:shrug:

[theHandpuppet]

11. Well, to me there's are reasons for that

I think there are some neocon Repukes who will run roughshod over him and this is where his lack of experience will hurt him. As for some other Republicans who will appear to work with him, why not? I really don't see much difference in some of his social and economic policies than those of moderate Republicans, and if Obama owes his nomination in good part to crossover votes from the GOP then he will face a fistful of their IOUs upon entering office.

To my mind, Obama provides a convenient alternative for Republicans who want to assuage their guilt over Iraq without sacrificing too much in the way of their basic platform -- and it seems to be working. More than anything, the neocons fear Hillary Clinton and that's a good indicator to me that's she's the candidate to get my vote. This party has been fighting the neocons with kid gloves for far too long.

[rodeodance]

36. Yes, I also think the neocons fear Hillary. They know she is strong and will not put

up their crap.

[DemGa]

13. Solid win with Hillary

One major reason: Hillary's been through the right-wing attacks, and therefore lines are drawn and perceptions fairly stable. No less important: much of her support IS the Democratic base.

Obama, on the other hand, is a huge gamble. He points to his strength in having not endured right-wing attacks -- this is presumptuous and foolhardy. He may himself soon share in the charge he levies at Hillary, that she is "divisive and polarizing." Many Dems can see this easy truth.

Of course, Obama could yet erase enough of the the left/right political paradigm to find success -- again, a huge gamble.

[Independent-Voter]

32. HRC will get her ass kicked in the GE if it comes to it. Shit - Dems don't even like her

[Omega3]

61. yeah and Bush was all set for an ass kicking when Kerry was 20% up on him, the thing you Obamabots

don't understand about the GOP is they will band together like lemmings for the common good. They will come out and attack a 2 year Senator with no specifics and NO foreign policy experience up against a war hero with not only a middle name that muslim but a first name as well. They will smear and slime him to no end like they always do, they are looking for a weak and feeble Dem to go against , someone who talk bipartisianship and reaching across the aisle.

HC's been vetted, what more could the RW hate machine possibly say against her. she fights back and doesn't take shit from them.

Why do you Obamabots think the Repukes are talking and saying the word bipartisianship now that it looks like they'll be out of power. Where was the bipartisianship over the last 7 years???

[Omega3]

46. I'll tell yo another reason Obama's a huge gamble, look at some of the states he's won:

KS, NE, ND, ID, AK, LA, AL, GA, SC, does anybody really think he'll win these in the GE? I sure don't. It's a fact many Republicons have crossed over and voted in the Dem primary to play spoiler and will vote McLame in the GE, it's just what they do. They're lemmings and the one thing they do better than dems is stick together for the greater good.

Yes he's won Minn and NJ by 5 points but does anyone really think Minn won't go dem in the GE? It's one of the most democratic states in the union. NJ will go to the dems as well.

[Pryderi]

49. You think CA and NY are going to go Repug?

[Omega3]

57. no that's not what I said at all, did you read my post? that's the whole point, do you really think

the states above are going Blue in the GE? of course you jest...

[Pryderi]

60. Do you really think NY and CA are going to go red in the GE?

[Omega3]

64. you're a fucking idiot, is that the response you wanted? either you stupid or just trying to wind me

up, :) either way, it's clear you can't make a pertinent comment on the issue.

p.s. Have a nice day! :hi:

[Pryderi]

70. Your argument makes no sense! Obama will win the same states that Hillary will, but has a

better chance than Hillary of winning the states you mentioned! Sheesh!

[rodeodance]

14. And why do you think she will not. You made a claim but no thoughts as to why

One of the main reasons I support Obama over Hillary is that I believe he has a better chance creating a big Democratic majority in Congress.

I don't believe Hillary, if she wins, would have the same effect. Do you?

[Pryderi]

16. Because, like it or not, Hillary is a divisive figure in politics and is more likely to turn

voters off and not show up. Or, worse yet, have voters go over to McCain.

[DemGa]

22. Do you forget that Bill Clinton left office with a 65% approval rating?

And this is where these "polarizing" perceptions derive: the Clinton Presidency era. You are using the words of Obama -- this does not reflect reality.

[Pryderi]

28. I think his approval rating has fallen since campaigning for Hillary...

[rodeodance]

25. RW mene. You have fallen into the trap of believing them. Do you have any of your own thoughts?

[Pryderi]

30. A Hillith-faire groupie accusing me of not having an original thought? Thanks!

[rodeodance]

33. You are welcome. Now instead of insults directed at me--What ARE your original thoughts?

[Pryderi]

35. First, explain to me how my believing that Hillary is a divisive political figure is "RW meme"?

[rodeodance]

37. NO dice---I asked my question first.

[Pryderi]

40. I believe that Obama has coattails, and Hillary does not. It may not be original, but

that's what I believe.

Now, answer my question.

[rodeodance]

52. I think Bush screwing up the country will be an advantage to either Dem. I so not

think Obama has an advantage her.

The Dems will unite --and bring along Indepts because of this fact.

[Pryderi]

55. Will you answer my question? Why is believing Hillary is a divisive figure, RW meme?

[DemGa]

44. Where do you think all this Hillary-hate originated?

And you ask this inane question? It's a right-wing meme because that is it's source! You buy the lies of the opposition when you fall for this perception -- you buy the lies of Obama.

[griffi94]

45. hillary is a divisive figure

that's a plus. obama should he go on to win the nomination will also soon be a divisive figure. the obama supporters don't seem to grasp that the gop is gonna slime the hell out of who ever we nominate.
they seem to believe that because obama is so fresh and new and hopeful that the repubs will be as enchanted with him as they themselves are. no way in hell that'll happen. it's the gop mission statement to crush hope. i know the obama people don't believe it but obama has so far gotten a free pass in the press. as soon as he's the nominee the gop will start whipping up the faithful that obama is a muslim, his wife hates america. yadda yadda yadda....they haven't done it yet because they hate hillary more than they hate obama, but as soon as hillary is gone from the race, that will change and they'll start finding reasons to hate him. don't believe me? just wait and watch.

[DemGa]

48. You are correct -- and the Obamas are engaged in an epic fallacy

if they believe otherwise. It is a silly premise in which they place so much faith.

[Pryderi]

51. Maybe the Obama campaign is part of the VRWC

[DemGa]

54. It has been his tool -- that is certain....nt

[griffi94]

62. i don't think his campaign is part of the vrwc

but i do think a lot of his supporters are crossover repubs who will never vote for him in november.
and i also think regardless of their voting intentions, more than a few of his supporters use the same
tactics and language that the rw does when they attack clinton, same sources even. i've seen obama supporters asked about his voting to continue the war funding and how that squares with the anti-war position he has. the obama folks never answer, instead they scream that hillary voted for it too and besides she never said she was sorry for iwr vote. that doesn't say a damned thing about obamas position at all. i already know hillarys position. obama should he become president has the best chance to be the biggest disappointment. right now he's running as all things to all people, and that will never be realistic, so which group gets disenchanted first, who does he throw under the bus first, will the youthful idealist continue to vote in 2010 if obama can't deliver on his agenda, or will they go back to being uninterested in the political process. should the democrats lose the congress in 2010 how much of obamas agenda do you think they'll sign on for. imo he's promising things be can't deliver, now i don't personally care because i know all politicians do this, on the other hand i'm not very idealistic and don't expect much except a little more level playing field.

[rodeodance]

56. I base my claim on hearing it almost daily from RW pundits. Where have you been?

[paulk]

15. the whole idea of coattails is overrated

split ticket voting is a common phenom - I don't see why Obama would be any different in this regard than HRC.

There are other dynamics at work - the largest being a generalized disgust with the Republican party and it's mishandling of damn near everything these last eight years. The voting trends of 2006 will continue into 2008 no matter who the nominee is.

I think your argument is among the weakest when it comes to choosing a candidate to support.

[Pryderi]

26. Obama Already Has Coattails.

http://www.examiner.com/printa-1213281~Local_congressional_candidates_seek_to_ride_Sen._Obama_coattails.html

Local congressional candidates seek to ride Sen. Obama coattails
Opinions vary about whether a high turnout for Obama will bode well for the eight-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Al Wynn,(shown above in an undated file photo) who served with Obama in the Congressional Black Caucus.
(Examiner file photo)
Opinions vary about whether a high turnout for Obama will bode well for the eight-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Al Wynn,(shown above in an undated file photo) who served with Obama in the Congressional Black Caucus.

Kathleen Miller, The Examiner
2008-02-11 08:00:00.0
Current rank: Not ranked
WASHINGTON -

Dueling Democrats in a tight congressional race to represent Maryland’s Fourth District are clamoring to connect their campaigns to presidential contender Sen. Barack Obama.

Experts are predicting Maryland’s large numbers of suburban black voters, many of whom live in Prince George’s County, will contribute to an Obama victory in the state.

Opinions vary about whether a high turnout for Obama will bode well for the eight-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Al Wynn, who served with Obama in the Congressional Black Caucus, or whether voters driven by Obama’s “change” message will prefer challenger Donna Edwards.

Wynn endorsed Obama nearly a month ago.

He appeared for him on “Geraldo At Large” this weekend and at a rally in Annapolis last Wednesday. Wynn campaign manager Lori Sherwood said his support for Obama has nothing to do with politics.


Obama Already Has Coattails.
avatar
By Dan - February 13, 2008, 11:29AM

So, it’s mid-February, it’s nine months to the general election, and already Barack Obama is showing that he has very real coattails. Yesterday, Donna Edwards, a Maryland lawyer and social activist, won the Democratic primary election for the 4th District over the 8 term sitting incumbent Congressman, Albert Wynn.

This was no small victory for Ms. Edwards. Al Wynn was a popular and long serving representative from a suburban Maryland district not far from the District of Columbia. Donna Edwards had previously challenged Rep. Wynn in 2006, and lost. The difference this time around was the enthusiastic and broad support that Barack Obama’s candidacy brought about, driving younger and more informed voters to the polls simply by appearing on the ballot. This new support was the key to Donna Edwards’ victory against what had become an entrenched establishment candidate.

Again, nine months before the general election is held, and there is already clear evidence of the effect that having Obama on the ballot will have on down-ticket elections come November.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/obama-already-has-coattails.php

[paulk]

63. whatever

winning a Democratic PRIMARY shows coattails?

????????????????????????????????????????????

[mrreowwr_kittty]

65. You are partly right

It is true that split ticket voting is common, as is undervoting (marking the top 2 spots while leaving the rest blank), but only among Dems and Independents. The Republican base tends to be very disciplined at voting R all the way down the ballot. So when you have someone like Clinton on the ticket, who will bring out the base like crazy, it threatens Dems lower on the ticket. It makes it harder to hold onto or win Congressional seats and you can pretty much kiss the state lege and school boards goodbye. With Obama, there's a chance that the rabid right (who are a major factor in red states) will sit it out. With Clinton, there's no chance of that.

[paulk]

66. I don't buy the argument that Hillary is going to bring out record

numbers of Republicans.

The last election the Republicans set a record for turnout. Why should this be any different? Was Kerry some kind of over divisive candidate? Because you will need to make that case for your argument to hold up. The Republicans will show up to vote regardless of who our candidate is. They always do.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

67. They came because they liked Bush

McCain is not nearly as popular with Republicans as Bush was back in '04.

And you noticed what happened with downticket races in '04, didn't you? Not a good year for the Dems.

[paulk]

68. yeah, I noticed -

Ken Salazar won in Colorado while John Kerry lost.

All politics is local, someone once said.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

71. One congressional seat does not prove your point

We had a net loss of Senate and House seats, not to mention governorships, state leges, utility boards, school boards, etc. across the country. Contrast that to 2006, when the base had no compelling reason to come out. I can tell you that in my state, Democratic and Independent performance viz. voting down the ticket did not improve. Still plenty of ticket-splitting and undervoting going on with them. But more of the GOP base stayed home, and that made a huge difference. We picked up two Congressional seats and several state lege. All of which won by razor thin margins.

[paulk]

78. we lost four southern Senate seats in 2004 because there's

been a longterm shift in the south from conservative Dem to conservative Repub. And we're winning seats in the NE because there's a shift from liberal Repub to liberal Democrat. We're starting to win races in the mountain west because there's a shift from conservative Repub to conservative Dem. Also the growing Hispanic vote, which swings mostly Dem, is starting to have an effect. These trends have been developing for a long time - you can't pin these things on a single election cycle.

Off year elections always have a lower turnout than presidential.

I continue to find this whole argument that somehow Hillary will get the Republican base out while Obama will not absurd.


ps - also in the year that Salazar won - we took both houses of the state lege for the first time in over 40 years. And the top of the ticket had nothing to do with it - what happened in CO in 2004 was a precursor to what happened nationwide in 2006 and will continue to happen in 2008. People got fed up with the religious right wing whacko Republicans running the government and replaced them with Democrats.

[Marrah_G]

29. Yes- it all boils down to what we believe our candidate can do.

I believe she can. You believe Obama can.

[Pryderi]

38. Obama is already proving it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4795637&mesg_id=4795994

[Marrah_G]

42. Your opinion- None of us knows the future.

[Pryderi]

43. Did you read my previous post? Obama Already Has Coattails.

http://www.examiner.com/printa-1213281~Local_congressional_candidates_seek_to_ride_Sen._Obama_coattails.html

Local congressional candidates seek to ride Sen. Obama coattails
Opinions vary about whether a high turnout for Obama will bode well for the eight-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Al Wynn,(shown above in an undated file photo) who served with Obama in the Congressional Black Caucus.
(Examiner file photo)
Opinions vary about whether a high turnout for Obama will bode well for the eight-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Al Wynn,(shown above in an undated file photo) who served with Obama in the Congressional Black Caucus.

Kathleen Miller, The Examiner
2008-02-11 08:00:00.0
Current rank: Not ranked
WASHINGTON -

Dueling Democrats in a tight congressional race to represent Maryland’s Fourth District are clamoring to connect their campaigns to presidential contender Sen. Barack Obama.

Experts are predicting Maryland’s large numbers of suburban black voters, many of whom live in Prince George’s County, will contribute to an Obama victory in the state.

Opinions vary about whether a high turnout for Obama will bode well for the eight-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Al Wynn, who served with Obama in the Congressional Black Caucus, or whether voters driven by Obama’s “change” message will prefer challenger Donna Edwards.

Wynn endorsed Obama nearly a month ago.

He appeared for him on “Geraldo At Large” this weekend and at a rally in Annapolis last Wednesday. Wynn campaign manager Lori Sherwood said his support for Obama has nothing to do with politics.


Obama Already Has Coattails.
avatar
By Dan - February 13, 2008, 11:29AM

So, it’s mid-February, it’s nine months to the general election, and already Barack Obama is showing that he has very real coattails. Yesterday, Donna Edwards, a Maryland lawyer and social activist, won the Democratic primary election for the 4th District over the 8 term sitting incumbent Congressman, Albert Wynn.

This was no small victory for Ms. Edwards. Al Wynn was a popular and long serving representative from a suburban Maryland district not far from the District of Columbia. Donna Edwards had previously challenged Rep. Wynn in 2006, and lost. The difference this time around was the enthusiastic and broad support that Barack Obama’s candidacy brought about, driving younger and more informed voters to the polls simply by appearing on the ballot. This new support was the key to Donna Edwards’ victory against what had become an entrenched establishment candidate.

Again, nine months before the general election is held, and there is already clear evidence of the effect that having Obama on the ballot will have on down-ticket elections come November.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/obama-already-has-coattails.php

[Marrah_G]

53. You do not know the future- anything can happen between now and then

Those hanging on his coat-tails may jump of really quickly at the smallest of reasons. Fairweather friends are like that.

You can insist all you want that you know the future.... but the reality is, none of us do.

We are all hoping we are making the correct choice.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

34. The answer is obvious . . .

If Hillary can't even unite the hardcore Democrats here, how is she going to bring a big Democratic majority in Congress?

Obama knows how to bring people together to get something done.

[Omega3]

59. um, I'm sorry but BO is not uniting anyone here either....

[rug]

58. A lot of people voting for Obama are not Democrats and are unlikely to vote Democratic downticket.

People are buying into him, his personality and his bipartisanship spiel so I think there will be a lot of ticket splitting come November.

[Pryderi]

79. Even if that is true, he's activating more ppl than she is. It's not just more ppl voting, they're

VOLUNTEERING!!!