Without flames, can we have a thread of March 4th Predictions?

[Political Heretic]

No commentary, no flames or attacks, here are my predictions:

Texas: Obama by +6
Ohio: Clinton by +1
Vermont: LOL Okay okay... i'm gonna say Idaho-level high... Obama by 40+ like maybe 75%

EDIT - forgot RI: I haven't been following at all, but I understand it is a Clinton stronghold, so I'll give it to her.

[jgraz]

1. I'll make a couple predictions about your predictions thread

1. No one will predict that Hillary will win both states by the 20 pts she needs.

2. You're gonna get flamed for that sig pic. ;)

[StevieM]

She only needs those 20 points based on Obama's spin about the so-called pledged delegates

Obama makes it sound like he's saying whoever gets the most votes wins. But he's not. Hillary won Nevada and got fewer delegates. There are all sorts of arcane rules governing the nominating process and it's the job of the super delegates to make sure that the nomination goes to whoever gets the most votes.

Not that it matters. Obama seems to have this thing won. Too bad his supporters--for the most part--aren't being very friendly. They seem to forget that voting for McCain IS an option that Hillary's supporters have.

Steve

[HCE SuiGeneris]

11. You are going to vote for McCain?

[jgraz]

12. "so-called pledged delegates"

Yeah, that's going to work. :eyes:

And as far as voting for McCain goes, knock yourself out.

No, seriously, go find a large rock and knock yourself out.

[Occam Bandage]

15. "So-called pledged delegates." The automatic delegates are much more democratic, aren't they?

[jgraz]

"Automatic"?? You mean the ones that non-Clinton shills refer to as Superdelegates?

:P

[Occam Bandage]

33. They're the real heart and soul of the democratic process.

[grantcart]

72. Your not going to hear much about "automatic delegates" anymore

as of today Obama 93/ Clinton 94 in "automatic delegates" those that get it because they are automatically a delegate because they are Govenor/Senator or Congressman

details here http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4806123

[Political Heretic]

16. I'm friendly. Are u hawT?

:evilgrin:

[jgraz]

36. Does anyone else see this post listed as a response to the Original Message?

Strange.

[Political Heretic]

42. lol not me.

[jgraz]

59. weird. First time I've alerted for a bug ;)

[fishwax]

54. that is strange--i think it's because it's a response to an unnumbered post

when two posts are made at the exact same time, one of them gets a number and the other is "# " ... I guess responses to unnumbered posts show up as responses to the original message :shrug:

I never noticed that until you pointed it out here ...

[cloudythescribbler]

53. I would go further and guess no RETURNS OR GUESSES w/even a 10+% margin ...

IN EITHER OF THE TWO BIG March 4 states. Whether Hillary quits after March 4 and how soon I don't know, but the debate was her last BIG chance for a catchup, and she didn't even seem to gain incrementally on him.

And I further predict that once Obama becomes the presumptive nominee, only the die-hard few will bash him after that on DU.

[Eurobabe]

2. Here's mine

and I am always notoriously close. :rofl:

Texas: Obama by +3
Ohio: Obama by +1
Vermont: Obama by +20
Lil' Rhody: Clinton +4, (ok so I'll throw her a bone)

[cali]

8. Judging by past state trends

I think he'll win Texas by closer to 10

And she'll lose Vermont by 30.

[Eurobabe]

20. pass me the koolaid, I want what you're drinking!

:rofl:

GOBAMA!!!

[jgraz]

29. The trend in Wisconsin was for Hillary to lose ground wherever she campaigned

She's campaigning harder in these states AND she's using much more disagreeable tactics. I think we're going to see a huge move toward Obama in the next 6 days.

[Eurobabe]

31. Tis true, I want this over

Bases loaded, bottom of the 9th. Come on BARACK!!!!

[jgraz]

35. Can't be the bottom of the ninth

If this were a baseball game, Obama would already be up by 12.

It's more like bottom of the ninth, 2 outs, nobody on and Hillary is down to her last strike.

[Eurobabe]

40. Okay, so baseball is not my forte

Let's try a skiing analogy. :hi:

[jgraz]

41. Ok... that would involve a Hillary, a black diamond slope and a really big tree

:P

[Eurobabe]

48. And alot of ice

Oh, not a nice mental image.

She falls in Vermont, left ski comes off early in Texas, hope for recovery in Rhode Island, but Ohio is the biggest fucking pine tree known to mankind.

[Kukesa]

60. From a Buckeye: think of Ohio as moguls, lots of moguls. n/t

[Eurobabe]

61. Hi Kukesa!!

I sure hope Ohio does the right thing...counting on you guys/gals :grouphug:

[cali]

39. here have a sip:

I'm a Vermonter, and the polls have him up here by close to 30. I actually think it could end up being closer to 35. The issue here is Iraq, and the anger about it is huge. Last night on "All Things Considered" Veteran reporter Candace Page, made that point. She said it's Obama all the way, and Eric Davis of Middlebury predicts a huge win for Obama.

I'm predicting TX based on Wisconsin. Polls just before the vote there showed him up modestly just as polls in TX show him up modestly are tied now- and we still have almost a week to go.

[Eurobabe]

43. I wouldn't be surprised, back in 2006 fall

I took some photos in Rochester VT, on the green, they had flags for every soldier that had been killed in Iraq. It was very moving and disturbing at the same time.

[Major Hogwash]

67. Hmmm, that's very interesting.

I don't have a habit of catching that program, "All Things Considered", but they have had some really good reporting on there lately.

The issue was Iraq here in Idaho as well.
There wasn't any fooling around about it at all here.
People were focused and had an agenda when they came to caucus.

Back then - just 7 short weeks ago - Hillary had been saying she would get the troops out "during her 2nd term" or "within 2 years", depending on which debate they were talking about.

They also talked a little how Hillary had fought against John Kerry's plan to get an amendment to a bill for a timeline added to one of the DOD bills they passed in 2006.
And how she put down John Murtha's plan to redeploy the troops to Kuwiat, in order to get them out of the line of fire in 2005.

The anger over her saying something about her being "the presumptive nominee" pissed a lot of people off here, as well.

[cali]

3. Sure;

Texas: Obama by 10

Ohio: Obama by 4

RI: Clinton by 7

Vermont: Obama by 32

[Independent-Voter]

5. Sounds about right to me.

[Eurobabe]

7. I like your OH prediction

[yardwork]

4. No flame, but I agree with jgraz about your sig photo.

[Political Heretic]

9. Do you even know what it is, or where it comes from?

[jgraz]

23. I don't know where that specific version of the Apple commercial came from, no

Does it matter? It seems a bit inflammatory to compare Hillary to Big Brother.

[Ellipsis]

37. Totally agree.

Time to get away from disparaging the Dem's

Stop following the demonetization of the candidates.

(using the OP's metaphor)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KNrxwl59I0

[Political Heretic]

45. Seems about right to me.

Establishment candidate vs. political newcomer. IBM vs. Apple....

Anyway, I don't care. I liked the redone ad, I don't take things too seriously, and I try not to worry too much about those who do.

[Ellipsis]

24. Sure do

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYecfV3ubP8

[Political Heretic]

46. Ok side track: that commercial is still one of the all time best!

:)

[yardwork]

50. Yeah, actually I do. I'm an old geezer who happened to be watching when the original aired.

Sigh.

[cliffordu]

64. Me too....I was invincible in them days.....meh.

[comtec]

70. i was 9

What has always annoyed me is that Apple really isn't what it has always claimed. (to get off topic)
Apple has sworn up n down they are the better, smarter way to go.
But Apple has not once, ever, tried to connect with the average person.
They see themselves as a cult, and they are happy to be like that.
I'm no fan of M$, but at least M$ has been pretty forthright about their intentions, "we want it all!"

There's an honesty I can respect about that. I don't have to LIKE it, but at least it's honest, and I know which direction to go (away).

The compartment of Hilary to big brother, even though it was an independent ad meant to make a different point about indy ads, was seriously unfair.

A better version would be of * up there, with Barak '08 on one side of the hammer, and Hilary '08 on the other. Unity, in dissent.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

6. No.

But I wish you success anyway. :evilgrin:

[Occam Bandage]

10. OH: Clinton+10. TX: Clinton+3.

Note: I am always wrong, so I'm using it to my benefit.

[rox63]

13. Is there any such thing as a flame-free thread around here?

I haven't seen one in months. :hide:

[jgraz]

14. TX: Obama by 30, OH: Obama by 25

[Political Heretic]

17. Your sig line is *awesome*

:rofl:

[CoffeeCat]

18. I'll reiterate my prediction...

Texas: Obama by 21
Ohio: Obama by 16
Vermont: Obama by 40
Rhode I: Obama by 13

Those Texas and Ohio numbers look high for Obama. However, I also predicted
Wisconsin and Hawaii. I predicted Wisconsin (Obama by 15) and Hawaii (Obama
by 35), and people scoffed.

I look at trends. In the past 11 states that Obama has won, there is a pattern:

--Hillary has a 15+ point lead a few weeks before the primary
--Obama closes to within 10, usually 4-6 days before the primary
--The race tightens within a day or two before the primary
--Obama wins by 5-40 points

What I've noticed is that these trends are happening faster, in each subsequent
state. Hillary's leads are eroding faster now.

For example, Hillary had a 15+ point lead in TX, and that is gone. Usually, by this time,
he's behind by 10 or so. However, now, Obama is ahead in Texas. He'll take that
state handily.

Ohio is following the trend, but just a bit faster than usual--Obama within 10
a week before the Ohio primary.

The same trend followed in Wisconsin. She was ahead by 7-8--five days before the primary--and
Obama took the state by an impressive majority.

I just want to get this done. It's over. We just need to jump through the hoops in TX and OH.

[Eurobabe]

28. You forgot Rhode Island, I threw her a bone

and gave it to her by +4.

[CoffeeCat]

30. I just added in RI...

Be careful about throwing bones...sometimes that can result in a nasty bite!

;)

[Eurobabe]

38. SWEEP!! I love it!

[ORDem]

34. Bookmarked (and kicked) n/t

:kick:

[totodeinhere]

19. OK, here we go.

Texas - Obama by 15.
Ohio - Obama by 3.
Vermont - Obama by 20 or more.
RI - Too close to call.

Or in other words, it's all over for Clinton.

[ORDem]

21. TX: Obama by 9, OH Obama by 2, VT Obama by 27, RI Clinton by 8 n/t

[FlyingSquirrel]

22. Can't help myself here..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxlYjqTRqvk&feature=related

[Political Heretic]

47. ROFLOL!!!!!!

:woohoo:

[MyNameGoesHere]

25. My guess is someone will

be closer to the nomination

[GoneOffShore]

26. I'm predicting that DU will be at DefCon 6 on the 4th.

No sigs, no avatars, no search, no ignore and no graphics.

This board will be text only that night.

[jgraz]

32. Ha - I had a dream last night we went to DefCon 6.

Skinner had limited everyone to one post a night and put up a plea to please watch how many posts you read. Seriesly.

[cliffordu]

65. Great test for MySQL!!!!!

[rox63]

27. TX: Obama by 10, OH: Clinton by 2, VT: Obama by 20, RI: Clinton by 8 n/t

[democrattotheend]

44. Sounds about right

I don't know about 75% in Vermont though...I think there is no doubt Obama will win Vermont, but I don't think he'll win it by that much. But I thought he was going to lose Wisconsin, so what do I know?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

49. Meh, what the hell.

Texas doesn't matter by 19.
Ohio doesn't matter by 9.
Vermont doesn't matter by 35.
RI doesn't matter by 11.

[mudesi]

51. Texas: Obama +20 Ohio: Obama +17 (nm)

[cloudythescribbler]

52. My guess is TX by a SMALLER margin than 6, Ohio too close to call (HRC edge), Vt - Obama big, RI ...

HRC by a moderate margin, possibly in low double digits.

If Obama had really gone for the jugular on NAFTA and "free" trade generally, I think he'd have Ohio. I suspect I have a somewhat different sentiment about the issue from him.

I think Obama figures now he is going to be the nominee, and is thinking more about the general than about NAFTA and Ohio and really routing Hillary bigtime... (All those NY Times Democratic establishment folk not to be overly alienated)

[Thepricebreaker]

55. Texas to Obama - Ohio to Hillary - End game for Hillary.

[scheming daemons]

56. TX: Obama+9, OH: Clinton+4, RI: Clinton+10, VT: Obama+25

[LSK]

57. I predict on March 4, there will be many more flames.

:D

[IDemo]

58. Texas and Ohio will become the new "Don't Matter"s n/t

[BringBigDogBack]

62. My prediction also.,

[jlake]

63. Sure.

TX Hillary by 4
OH Hillary by 8
RI Hillary by 17
VT Obama by 27

[Drunken Irishman]

66. My predictions.

Texas: Obama will win by 8-10 points.
Ohio: Obama will win by 5 points.
Rhode Island: Clinton will win by 8-10 points.
Vermont: Obama will win by 30+ points.

My reasoning:

Texas is trending in Obama's favor and he has a great GOTV, which I think will definitely help him there. I expect extremely high turnouts in Houston, Dallas and Austin, however, I have some doubts Clinton will see a dramatic turnout in her stronger regions (the border area).

Ohio is much more tricky, since I've always felt she had a bigger lead there than in Texas. I said 5 for Obama because I think he's surging in the right direction and by Tuesday, he'll have erased her lead and built his own -- even if the poll doesn't show it.

Rhode Island and Vermont don't need to be explained.

One thing I've noticed is that the polls seem to underrepresented Obama's support. If that's the case, he could easily win Texas big.

[FrenchieCat]

68. Let us pray.....

amen.

I'm not into polls, or prediction, and have been very conservative with all of my trying to predict, and have been proven wrong, and Obama won by way more than I thought possible. So right now, I'm feeling that Hillary's polling will go down some due to the debate....but some in Ohio will be a bit scared by all of the racist shit that has been played on Obama (pic, Hussein, etc...), so I predict without predicting.....

+3 Obama in Texas
+1 Clinton in OH
+25 Obama in Vermont
+4 Clinton in RI

[Drunken Irishman]

69. I'm hoping.

One thing I don't like is the press now overcompensating for Hillary's whining by going hard at Obama. And it's petty stuff, too.

[grantcart]

71. here you are

Ohio 161 Delegates- . . .- Clinton 52 Obama 48
Texas 228 Delegates . . .- Obama 57 Clinton 43
Vermont 28 Delegates. . .- Obama 63 Clinton 37
Rhode Island 32 Delegates- Clinton 57 Obama 43