Can anyone from TX give me an unbiased idea of what the polls really look like out there?

[RockyTorres]

Not the media polls...what you are really seeing...I am in Ohio and in all honestly Obama is not going to win here....

[Bicoastal]

1. Why do you say that?

Just curious.

[BeatleBoot]

2. Cue your friend from Texas.....

Who has the data you want to expound upon....

[RockyTorres]

3. I just never believe any polls I see on the news or online and like

to ask people who actually live there and talk to people...I am a democrat and ask my friends who are democrats and just wondering what you are hearing

[Bicoastal]

9. Rocky, first-person accounts are simply misleading.

I know LOTS of people here in Brooklyn. EVERYone I knew voted for Obama on Super Tuesday. He had MASSIVE visible public support all over my neighborhood and elsewhere.

And on Super Tuesday, Hillary won Kings County. If I can be wrong about a borough of a city, how can I trust your judgement on an entire state?

This is why polls are a necessary evil of campaign politics.

[Cha]

17. Were Obama's votes

even counted in some of the Burroughs? Like Harlem?

[RockyTorres]

Of course...why wouldn't they have been

[Cha]

24. Because he zero vote count in

Harlem and they've been investigating for about 3 weeks now.

[cloud75]

37. I'm from south texas and it's 3-to-1 Clinton from people i talk to

but that is pretty good for obama because south texas is clinton country...the momentum, television speeches and obama not being clinton has helped obama...all the political leaders in our area are for clinton with a smattering for obama...that's south texas the state is too big to know what is going on elesewhere most of the people i know from the rest of the state or repukes so we don't talk politics...my gut feeling is it's going to be close a toss up...also some people in Texas will not vote for obama because he is African-American.

[rzemanfl]

4. Because? n/t

[RockyTorres]

5. I am just wondering what people are actually hearing out there and

not what the on-line and news polls are telling us

[NJSecularist]

6. It's a dead heat pretty much

Obama may have a slight lead, but we still have a week to go and things can change.

To keep it simple, it's a dead heat but Obama should be favored to win the state.

[MadBadger]

7. You have Zero Credibility when you predict a 60-40 win for Hillary

And how the hell is a media poll more biased than you or some other Joe saying what they think is happening...even when you are clearly wrong.

[RockyTorres]

11. I did admit earlier that the 60% was slightly exagerated...She will definetly carry 55% though... :)

and all the polls I am seeing out of Texas are mixed...I find that if you sift through the shit on here, you can usually come up with some more accurate info. than any of the online polls

[MadBadger]

13. Momentum is with Obama in TX and the polls show that

A CNN poll has Obama up four after being down by two earlier.

[NJSecularist]

14. You just asked for our opinion on the polls.... and now you are telling us she'll take 55%

You don't know what you are talking point, this is just your wishful thinking.

[RockyTorres]

18. I am talking in Texas I want to know....In Ohio she will win 55%...that is a given

[NJSecularist]

20. No, her getting 55% in Ohio is not a given

That's just your wishful thinking speaking again.

Stop presenting your own opinion as fact.

[RockyTorres]

22. No response to that I am being serious...watch it and you will see. He is not even leading in

Cuyahoga County...which is where Cleveland is...a city that is over 55% black...

[NJSecularist]

26. Sorry... you're wrong

He is likely dominating Cuyahoga but getting killed in greater Cleveland areas like Lake, Lorain, Medina and Geauga Counties.

And Cuyahoga is only 27% black.

And contrary to your own WISHFUL THINKING, it's not a given that Hillary will get 55%. It's not a given she will win the state either.

[RockyTorres]

29. I said the city of Cleveland was 55% black not the county...Just watch and see

She is going to win 55%...Don't worry I won't be mad at you... :)

[NJSecularist]

32. But when SurveyUSA lists Cleveland, they are also talking about the Greater Cleveland areas

Not just the city of Cleveland.

Hillary is likely dominating Greater Cleveland, which is why Obama's numbers in Cleveland as a whole are not as good as they need to be.

You've been wrong consistently, that I know. :)

[RockyTorres]

33. Like I said...I will still ove ya next Tuesday, but she will win 55%, and no, look it up

he is tied at best in the actual city that he should be kicking her butt in...

[NJSecularist]

34. For the last time, it's not just the city of Cleveland they are including!

It's also the Greater Cleveland area!

Hillary is dominating the Greater Cleveland area while Obama is dominating the city of Cleveland.

I've explained this to you many times, and you are still ignoring it!

Have you ever been to Ohio?

[RockyTorres]

36. OMG...I live in the City...I am telling you he is not dominating it...

I am going to be so excited to talk to you next Tuesday...and yes she is winning the greater Cleveland area but by a small margin..

[NJSecularist]

39. I will bet you he takes Cuyahoga County by a 60-40 or more margin on Tuesday

And I'll be very excited to talk to you on Tuesday. :)

As I said, he's probably getting killed in greater Cleveland areas like Medina and Lake County. :)

[RockyTorres]

42. We'll see what happens....In all honesty I will say this...

If she does not win Ohio by at least 8% and Texas by 5% then she needs to take a hard look at PA and see how big she can actually win it. If it does not look like 8% + then she needs to get the VP nod and run with it...

[NJSecularist]

43. Fair enough

We'll call a truce until Tuesday night. :)

[MadBadger]

21. Its a given that shell take 55%? This is why personal opinions are not fact they are biased

As you are offering your personal feelings as fact.

[skipos]

41. Mark Penn, is that you? Way to move the goal posts.

A few days ago you said she would win by 20%, now 10%. At that rate, you will be predicting a tie in the next few days.

[skipos]

8. Yay, Ohio MATTERS!

It has been such a bummer to find out that many states I like: Illinois, Maine, Wisconsin, etc don't matter. :(

[RockyTorres]

12. Wisconsin is the only one that matters there

[MadBadger]

16. ?

[skipos]

30. No, Wisconsin doesn't matter

but I don't think it was the fault of young people or blacks or men or independents or caucuses or the anti-war voters. I think the party activists ruined Wisconsin.

If Hillary loses TX, who should we blame? Hmmm... :shrug:

[cali]

10. sorry, but anecdotal "evidence" is far more unreliable than even

an ARG poll. I don't live in TX anyway. I do however, live in Vermont if you want to know what I'm seeing here.

[RockyTorres]

15. definetly do...There are no good polls out of Vermont or RI

[MadBadger]

19. In VT there are good polls. What are you talking about???

Every single poll has Obama somewhere around 60%, Hillary somewhere around 30-35%.

[RockyTorres]

23. I meant I haven't really been able to find any....The most recent one was from

around 2 weeks ago...

[MadBadger]

27. Probably cuz your not looking hard enough.

Ive seen at least three over the past week.

[cali]

28. No. There wasn't any VT polling at all two weeks ago

ARG and Rasmussen are within the last week.

[cali]

25. There are polls out of both states- Rasmussen and ARG

Granted neither of them have a stellar record this season, but they're better than nothing. Vermont is very strongly pro-Obama. Our resident political expert out of Middlebury College, Eric Davis thinks VT will go to heavily for Obama. Polls reflect that. Because of VT's quirky delegate allocation system, if the polls are correct, Obama will get the lion's share of our few delegates. I think Obama will win by 30+ pts here. Even the loan SD for Clinton said on the radio yesterday that Obama will win big. One indication of that is that Clinton has only raised $50,000 dollars here. Obama has raised 10x that- over $500,000.

[RockyTorres]

31. Yea that sounds like a lost cause for her...

[Lone_Star_Dem]

35. Just like voter opinion varies from state to state it varies from district to district

While one senatorial district may be leaning heavily in favor of one candidate another may be leaning in Hillary's favor. Which is exactly what is taking place here in Texas.

So everyone you speak to in one area my well appear to favor one candidate over another. That doesn't mean the entire state is of the same agreement.

An example being if I were to say, since the majority of district 14 is enamored with Obama the state is by majority enamored with him. That would be, well, silly.

[sendero]

38. I'm amused.....

... at all the low-post-count people coming out of the woodwork trying to boost their candidate.

HRC can have Ohio, but she will NOT win TX so it's over anyway.

[texas_indy]

40. Obama is going to win Texas popular vote and delegates,

the only question is by how much. I live in DFW and there is much more support for Obama than Hillary.

But, lets looks at some concrete examples we can take.

1. Hillary get 12,000 in a rally (Bill got 44,000 in '96, and Hillary ain't Bill, sadly for her)
2. Obama got 19,000 in Houston rally.
3. Obama got 17,000 in Dallas rally.
4. Obama got 30,000 in Austin rally.


So, can Hillary or Obama can pull more than the other. No wonder Hillary said "no more big rallies!" LOL



Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU


Edit to add that the 12,000 for Hillary was in El Paso.

[knixphan]

44. everyone should be so lucky

as to get a mariachi endorsement!

[loveangelc]

45. Do you think he has support through TX or just Dallas?

I dont live in Dallas anymore but I would suspect Dallas is going Obama. And what do you think of Republicans voting for Hillary in the race?

[texas_indy]

46. Yep, I bet Dallas, Houston, and Austin will go for him, and he will

make a good dent into El Paso, San Antonio, and the Valley.

I forgot to mention that Hillary got the 12,000 rally in El Paso.

I don't know any Republicans voting for Hillary. The ones I've talked too (family, friends, co-workers) are either voting for Huckabee if they are conservative (they consider McDud a traitor to the right wing) or they are voting for Obama because they like him, or want to have a hand in ending Hillary's run.

I haven't met any who are voting for Hillary. They hate her so much that they want a personal hand in bringing her down. Mention Hillary to them and they start to froth at the mouth. They really, really hate her and look forward to making her look bad here. I'm not saying that there isn't a republican voting for her down here, but that I haven't heard of any actually doing so yet.


Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[loveangelc]

47. I suspect they are voting for Obama too but I was wondering about the conservative radio talk show

hosts saying they should vote for hillary. if any are, i doubt its a very high number, I imagine most TX Republicans want to vote against her. Do you think dallas/houston/austin will offset el paso/san antonio/the valley? i really don't know much about texas voting patterns or where most of the democratic votes come from...