Prediction on Tuesday, Obama will win 188 delegates, Clinton 180.

[Drunken Irishman]

This is my quick guess, so don't take too much stock in 'em (I could be a bit off).

Here's how it'll break down:

Ohio: O - 69, C - 70
Texas: O - 100, C - 93
Rhode Island: O - 9, C - 12
Vermont: O - 10, C - 5

That will give Obama a delegate count of around 1,548 and Clinton 1,449. This includes superdelegates, which could dramatically shift between now and Tuesday. That would put Obama only 477 delegates short of winning the nomination. It's still a big number, but with superdelegates endorsing in droves, Obama very well could wrap this up by the end of March, though obviously not on pledged delegates alone.

[TexasObserver]

1. Only 126 delegates get decided in Texas next Tuesday.

We will be able to infer from the Texas results of roughly another 42, although it will not be precise.

Tuesday 4 March 2008:
Tier 1.
126 of 228 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Texas Presidential Primary.

A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the senatorial district level.
Texas has 126 district delegates apportioned among its 31 STATE SENATORIAL DISTRICTS as follows: (SD= "Senatorial District")
• 126 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 31 state senatorial districts (each senatorial district being assigned 2 to 7 National Convention delegates based on how well each district had supported the Democratic nominee for President in 2000 and Governor in 2002).
• SD 31: 2 delegates
• SDs 6, 7, 8, 9, 24, 28: 3 delegates each
• SDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 29, 30: 4 delegates each
• SDs 10, 20, 21, 26: 5 delegates each
• SDs 14, 23: 6 delegates each
• SD 13: 7 delegates
In addition, precinct conventions are to be convened no earlier than 7:15 P.M. local time the day of the presidential primary (the polls will have closed in Texas at 7 P.M.) to begin the process of choosing the delegates to County and Senate District Conventions.

Saturday 29 March 2008:
Tier 2.
County and Senate District Conventions select delegates to State Convention.

Friday 6 June - Saturday 7 June 2008:
Tier 3.
State Convention. The State Convention will choose the remaining 67 pledged delegates. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the statewide level.
• 67 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the presidential preference of the delegates at the State Convention as a whole.
• 42 at-large National Convention delegates (included in the 67 delegates)
• 25 Pledged PLEOs (included in the 67 delegates)

The remaining 35 National Convention delegates consist of
• 32 Unpledged PLEO delegates:
• 17 Democratic National Committee members.
• 13 Members of Congress (0 Senators and 13 Representatives).
• 0 Governors.
• 2 Distinguished Party Leaders (former House Speaker James C. Wright, Jr., former DNC chairman Robert Schwarz "Bob" Strauss).

And

• 3 Unpledged "add-on"s (elected at the state convention).

These 35 delegates and will go to the Democratic National Convention officially "Unpledged".

Texas Senatorial Districts: http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/c1440/map.pdf

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Ah, ok, well let me rework this, then.

[TexasObserver]

7. on the 126, your +8 for Obama is not far from wrong. I think 14-18 is a good plus number.

But it's a guess, in any event.

[madrchsod]

2. he will get the majority in texas

vermont 12-3 obama,ohio even,and i have no idea about rhode island

edit for the right texas info

[The Anti-Bush]

3. Didn't you hear? He's now ahead in Ohio!

[MadBadger]

5. Can you show me a poll that backs this up

[TexasObserver]

4. Obama should pick up about 12-18 delegates over Hillary of the 126 in Texas

And based upon the Tuesday returns, he will probably pick up another 6-10 of the (42+25=67) picked at the convention.

All the pundits will do their own math, but I expect Obama to pick up 18-30 more delegates than Hillary of the 1193 in play, but we won't know yet how most of the superdelegates will vote.

[thevoiceofreason]

8. TXO. I agree.

Assuming the rest of Texas breaks even (plus 1 Obama), the three key districts (Watson (8), West (6), and Ellis (7) go this way:

Watson: 6-2 Obama
West: 5-1 Obama
Ellis: 6-1 Obama

That is a difference of 13, which makes a total of +14 for Obama, which is my prediction for the Tuesday night segment (i.e., 70-56)

I think the caucuses will net another 5-10, but Hillary is much more organized there than people realize (since she has a lot of the old-guard activists supporting her), so it may be less.

Regardless, it is a big night for the big O down in Texas.