(For purposes of clarity the list at Demcon
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html is used as authoritative for delegate calculation)
Summary
I Sen. Obama about to pass Sen. Clinton in key Super Delegate category.
II. Sen. Obama now leads Sen. Clinton by 99 Delegates
III. Review of Up coming Primary States
IV. How Delegates are distributed.
V. Approaching Huckabee Syndrome
I Sen. Obama about to pass Sen. Clinton in key Super Delegate category.
The rate of Super Delegate committments to Obama has picked up 10 Super Delegates in three days.
At the same time Senator Clinton was officially assigned two NY DNC delegates who were previously assumed to be pro-Clinton but had no public record and lost one DNC SD who switched to Obama.
Remarkably this has brought Sen. Obama very close to passing Sen. Clinton in a very significant Super Delegate threshold that has gone unnoticed in the Media.
Sen. Obama is now one Super Delegate away from tying Sen. Clinton in the number of 'elected Super Delegates' Obama 93 Clinton 94.
(meaning Super delegates who are automatically entitled to Super Delegate status because they are US Senators,Govenors or Congresspeople)
Whatever moral authority Sen. Clinton might have been able to argue by suggesting that she retained the support of the highest level elected party leaders in the country - is now gone.
Sen. Obama has now passed Sen. Clinton in number of Govenors (11 to 10) and Senators (14 to 12), and trails in congresspeople 68 to 72.
Sen. Clinton leads Sen. Obama in other DNC delegates by 146 to 91. (Thirteen of these from New York alone.)
II. Sen. Obama now leads Sen. Clinton by 99 Delegates
. . . . . Delegates . . . . Super Delegates . . . Total
Sen Obama . . 1188 . . . . . . . . 184 . . . . . .1372
Sen Clinton. .. 1033 . . . . . . . . 240 . . . . . .1273
Total needed 2024.5
III. Review of Up coming Primary States
Super Tuesday Mar 4
Ohio 161 Delegates- . . .- Clinton is ahead by 5/6 points in two latest polls
Texas 228 Delegates . . .- All polls within the margin of error
Vermont 28 Delegates. . .- All polls showing Obama by a landslide
Rhode Island 32 Delegates- All polls showing Clinton + 15
April 22
Pennsylvania Clinton up 6 but Obama trending up very rapidly
May 6
North Carolina 2 recent polls showing significant lead
(Also in this time frame are Wyoming 8, Mississippi 40 Guam 9 and Indiana 84)
Additional details on Texas here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4600962&mesg_id=4600962http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4782802&mesg_id=4782802IV. How Delegates are distributed.
Most delegates are assigned to congressional delegates and distributed proportionately. This makes it very difficult for a candidate to catch up in a competitive race with only two candidates.
Without knowing the exact formula (If anybody has access to it please add)
If a CD has 2 delegates then it is going to be a proportional split 1-1 unless one candidate does not make the threshold (15%).
** (Its doubtful that this has happened but if it has it would be limited to a few CDs where Sen. Obama had huge margins.)
If a CD has 3 delegates then it is going to split 2-1 whether the winner has 51% or 75% **
If a CD has 4 delegates then it is going to split 2-2 unless one candidate has atleast 65%
And so on.
Even where Sen. Clinton has won she has never won by such substantial numbers that she could achieve large numbers of delegates. That is why it is irrelevent if Sen. Clinton wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by reaching 52% or 58%. They simply will not generate enough increased delegates to reduce Sen. Obamas lead.
V) Approaching Huckabee Syndrome
Moreover every day Sen Obama picks up 2-3 Super Delegates means that Sen. Clinton must pick up atleast 2 CDs not by winning them but by achieving landslides. Since Feb 5th she has yet to achieve this in a single congressional district. And added to that Sen. Obama is now ahead or tied in Texas. Texas has half of the Super Delegates on Super Tuesday and its internal delegatedistribution (along with its caucus that accounts for 1/3 of the delegates) show a heavy bias to CDs that include demographical groups that Sen. Obama has dominated.
So even though the numbers appear close there is no reasonable formula that can take the BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR SEN CLINTON that would add up to her reducing significantly Sen Obama's lead. The only scenario for Sen. Clinton left is the Huckabee Syndrome, i.e. carrying on until Sen. Obama reaches 2025 delegates awaiting some possible self destruction
Additional details on Texas here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4600962&mesg_id=4600962http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4782802&mesg_id=4782802