As an Ohio Activist, I believe Obama will win Ohio-here's why:

[mod mom]

Polls use "likely voters", 1st time and those who failed to vote in the past are excluded. Hundreds of thousands of low income voters were disenfranchised in Ohio in 2004. Also, there is a ground swell of new highly motivated voters coming into the mix who highly favor Sen Obama. I'm working at a Obama HQ in Ohio (we have offices all around the state not JUST the big cities!). Yesterday we had well over a hundred inner city folks hired (at $8/hr-I'm told) organized to canvass in my city alone. This is being repeated throughout the state. Inner city folks are out in force even more so than 2004. Look for record voter turnouts and the polls to be wrong! imho

NOTE; MAY I SAY THAT I BELIEVE USING CAMPAIGN MONEY TO GIVE INNER CITY LOW INCOME FOLKS A JOB IS SUCH A BETTER WAY TO UTILIZE CAMPAIGN DONORS THAN TO JUST GIVING IT TO TV STATIONS/OTHER MEDIA SOURCES!

[babylonsister]

1. Now THAT is a ground game! How great! Rec'd! nt

[Sensitivity]

2. Likely voters IS THE RIGHT GROUP since 30 prior registration is required!

"New voters" cannot vote till the GE unless they registered a month ago.

Big rallies will not help for Tuesday if what they do is get new folk to register (for Nov)

[Teaser]

5. Likely voters != registered voters

Likely voters are a subset of already registered voters. So if Obama moves registered but unlikely voters into the voting camp, the OP's point stands.

[mod mom]

16. likely voters = voted in past election (OH had huge disenfranchised population

targeting low income Af Am precincts (which traditionally vote 90% Dem-which is why they were targeted)

Gotta run !

[Teaser]

54. That's only one way to screen.

You can construct likely voter screens from almost any social data.

[Window]

8. That's the beauty of Obama's off-the-hook ground game.

His campaign knows about the 30-day prior registration rules. For instance, in SC his ground game registered people in plenty of time. They don't wait until the last minute. That's how my 17 year-old grandson was able to vote in the primaries (he'll be 18 in October)...the campaign set up campaign headquarters and held voter registration in the high schools, as well as throughout SC.

[mod mom]

10. Obama didn't just enter the race. Inner city is registered but many (100,000s)

were disenfranchised in '04 either this misallocation of machines, provisional ballots, challenges, purges).

I canvassed inner city precincts in Franklin Co in '04. There was enthusiasm for Kerry but nothing like we're seeing now. Also, some of the Af Am mega churches actually went for * in /04 because of faith based initiative $/"values" (I actually know a pastor of a suburban mega church who is Af Am and went for * in 04-they drive a mercedes, live in a huge house and opened a school as the church thanks to faith based $)

Believe what you will, but assuming they count the votes this time(and if they don't look for some heart felt outrage!)-I'm predicting the polls will be wrong again and Obama will carry Ohio.

Also note, I live in an inner ring upper middle class suburb. I organized the GOTV in '04. This year I wanted to focus on inner city and the woman who is running it is an independent and most of the folks working are new to the process. Obama signs out number Clinton 20 to 1 and I've only seen 1 McCain.

[catgirl]

3. Thanks for the update!

I think you're absolutely right. The first time voters could (probably will) tip Ohio
for Obama.

[Eurobabe]

4. This is why I love Barack.

Thanks for the update and the good news. :hi:

I am praying my birthstate comes through for ALL of us. :grouphug:

[Window]

6. Great news.

Thanks for sharing this.



Peace:thumbsup:

[liberalnurse]

7. Republicans, they paid their canvas workers too.

There sure are a lot of empty hands extended out in Ohio. I can see why Obama will get plenty of votes now.

Business is business.

[Window]

9. Low blow.

NAFTA:thumbsdown:

[Tesha]

13. Hillary would do it too, but her campaign is broke. And the grapes were sour anyway. (NT)

[Renew Deal]

26. Hillary has done it.

She paid people to get petition signatures for her. She might be able to afford canvassers if she wasn't paying Penn.

[druidity33]

14. ugh

you just gotta try and poop in the punch dontcha?

:(

[mod mom]

15. Giving jobs to disadvantaged inner city young people is a positive thing.

Do you prefer handing those campaign dollars to Mega media corporations?

I don't run across ANY Hillary signs on the near east side of Columbus-just saying.

[liberalnurse]

17. I find it opportunistic. .

Hunger is very motivating.....Ohio has a vast quantity of hungry poor to gleefully get out the vote for food. First the republicans strip them of their dignity through job loss, now, Democrats are throwing them some crumbs for votes. Not much difference except having a warm belly for a few days.

[flyarm]

19. or booze..or ipods? eom

[Yael]

23. Pity NAFTA was so devistating.

I am sure that Mark Penn has his fill of donuts and pizza.

:thumbsup:

[mrreowwr_kittty]

31. Hillary's millionaire consultants don't trouble their beautiful minds about it.

As they use the money you donated to them to rent lavish suites at the Bellagio.

[JimGinPA]

32. Such A Hypocrite!

If Hillary was doing it would be just peachy-keen with you. Too bad she wasted her money and can't. It must be sad to be such a bitter person.

[liberalnurse]

39. You call me a hypocrite when I tell you

that Ohio has many hungry citizens. Yea, I see how that is obviously a hypocritical concept in your mind.

If that is how you want to behave, then, let's look at how some of Obama's "gifts" are translated in exchange for services when given to "little girls"?


Oh my, indeed.:hide:

[JimGinPA]

43. Ouch,

I wouldn't think anyone supporting the Clintons would want to bring "little girls" into the discussion. But thanks for playing.

:rofl:

[Whisp]

52. wtf is with you, you are an ugly soul. fuck right off. nt

[mod mom]

55. a new low-simply shameful. eom

[JVS]

60. Ohhh. Do tell.

[cottonseed]

45. What a comment! With Hillary's donut bill. What nerve.

[flyarm]

18. Obama has been paying young ones since Iowa for all sorts of stuff,...legal and not

so maybe legal..certainly not ethical.

fly

[liberalnurse]

21. Did he get the idea from Oprah?

She loves to give things away, big, expensive, luxurious gifts. The result, lots of people then love her and watch her show....wait...

That sounds like " Manipulation with a flair of Co-Dependency" :scared:

[mod mom]

28. Is hiring campaign staff ethical? No one is following these individuals into the voting booth.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

33. Put up some proof of that or STFU

Go spread your filthy innuendo over at FR, fucking troll.

[flyarm]

42. its not my job to find the info for you...you could have found this..

there is also an article in the ORD trib.

you prove that he is everything he says he is ..YOU SHOW ME WHAT HE HAS DONE FOR THE MILITARY AND WHAT HE HAS DONE FOR VOTING RIGHTS AND CIVIL RIGHTS

he is your candidate ..not mine..mine is out of the race..but i saw what i saw with my own eyes in Iowa..i saw it as a Co-Captain OF A LARGE CAUCUS....i know damn well what i saw!

Everyone iN ILlinois loved the wonderful progressive Alice Palmer..go look her up..do a little of your own damn research!

oh and Alice helped Obama ..alot..he fucks anyone in his way..like i said...what this guy does many be legal..but he has no ethics!

it sucks to us dems if the repigs purge people off our ballots..and rightly so..i am sick of it here in Floridz..but when Obama does it ..you hypocrites are just fine with it!

In fact the Alice Palmer /Obama saga looks very similar to what happened here in Fla in 2000.

If that doesn't make the hair stand up at the back of your neck nothing would..go figure...

wow some of you remind me exactly of those who followed little lord pissy pants into an illegal war!

well not me .

and furthermore..the only active member of the U.S.Senate who has the power to hold hearings on Afganistan..is Obama..but don't worry about the soldiers in Afganistan..don't worry ...be happy..or be hopey..or be changey...

Poor Obama he took the chairmanship and then ran for President..poor dear Obama..he is surely the victim .......now isn't he?

sorry but i call that dereliction of duty and misplaced priorities...no crying towel from me..he should resign..but then he can't puff up his resume can he??

but don't worry this guy knew exactly what he was going for ( he always has, irregardless of who he fucks) ..he has been ruthless to get it..even at the cost of our soliders..in harms way.

But yet he professess to be an anti war candidate..what is wrong with this picture...never mind..i don't want to read any more of the obama supporters rude comments.

do your own research.

http://www.houstonpress.com/2008-02-28/news/barack-obama-screamed-at-me/2

Obama has spent his entire political career trying to win the next step up. Every three years, he has aspired to a more powerful political position.

He was just 35 when in 1996 he won his first bid for political office. Even many of his staunchest supporters, such as Black, still resent the strong-arm tactics Obama employed to win his seat in the Illinois Legislature.

Obama hired fellow Harvard Law alum and election law expert Thomas Johnson to challenge the nominating petitions of four other candidates, including the popular incumbent, Alice Palmer, a liberal activist who had held the seat for several years, according to an April 2007 Chicago Tribune report.

Obama found enough flaws in the petition sheets — to appear on the ballot, candidates needed 757 signatures from registered voters living within the district — to knock off all the other Democratic contenders. He won the seat unopposed.

"A close examination of Obama's first campaign clouds the image he has cultivated throughout his political career," wrote Tribune political reporters David Jackson and Ray Long. "The man now running for president on a message of giving a voice to the voiceless first entered public office not by leveling the playing field, but by clearing it."

[walk softly]

61. I'm From Iowa

Hey, I was also a precinct captain at a large caucus. Come to think of it, not too many small caucuses in Iowa. But tell me what you saw with your own eyes. I'd like to compare notes.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

38. Name one thing.

Either illegal or unethical.

[cottonseed]

48. Guilty of "campaigning while young and poor".

There's no place for that in politics.

:eyes:

[VenusRising]

36. I've only seen one Hillary sign on the west side of Columbus.

I can't even count all the Obama signs I've seen especially around Bethel and Sawmill. I've also noticed a great variety of Obama teevee commercials vs. the one of John Glenn talking about Hillary's record.

[Usrename]

20. It's a better plan than spending $7M on Mark Penn.

At least this way the dollars get to circulate a little bit before they end up in the pockets of millionaires.

[DUyellow]

59. pwned

[Windy]

24. Instead of making nasty unfounded comments against barack, why don't you get off of your ass

and work for your candidate.

Because you chose to first, not get the facts and second, put your "money where your mouth is" and work for Hillary, I find your opinions to be offensive.

[Renew Deal]

25. Hillary paid people to get petition signatures

So you're full of shit.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

30. The Clinton campaign paid canvassers where I live. I know this for a fact.

What were you saying about Republicans?

[Scriptor Ignotus]

34. I know for a fact Hillary pays canvas workers

I talked to them on primary day here in New York.

business is business...

[eridani]

58. Dems ought to change that particular habit

There was an anti-inheritance tax initiative in WA state two years ago, run by an ex-cop who was thrown off the force for shooting one too many black kids in the back. Sisn't stop him from hiring quite a few of them as signature gatherers to effectively work on raising their own taxes. Our opposition was volunteer only, but we lucked out and beat the initiative. We need to get kids like that involved on our side for a change.

[yourguide]

11. Great ground game.

That crew impresses me more and more every day, if this is any indication of how he'd run his administration I would say we are in good hands.

[flor de jasmim]

12. That IS a good ground game!

I was particularly struck by the comment of inner city kids being HIRED, and I agree with your last comment:

NOTE; MAY I SAY THAT I BELIEVE USING CAMPAIGN MONEY TO GIVE INNER CITY LOW INCOME FOLKS A JOB IS SUCH A BETTER WAY TO UTILIZE CAMPAIGN DONORS THAN TO JUST GIVING IT TO TV STATIONS/OTHER MEDIA SOURCES!

It's good politics, good economics, good marketing---good sense!! MUCH better than giving it to campaign consultants.

[HeraldSquare212]

22. So they don't adjust their model to account for increased turnout?

That seems odd.

[democrattotheend]

27. That's really great

Using local canvassers, particularly those who live in the inner city, is a really great idea. Research has shown that neighbor-to-neighbor persuasion is one of the most effective methods of voter contact, and it's great that some of the money Obama is raising is not only financing the campaign but helping inner city folks who could use the money. I told myself I was going to take a break from donating, but now I am really tempted to make another donation.

Which city are you in? I am coming to Columbus to volunteer for the weekend.

[maddiejoan]

29. What a new innovative approach!

Forget Chicago Style politics --now it's Tammany Hall!

[yodermon]

35. I don't understand

Hiring campaign workers is the same as buying votes?
Please explain.

[mod mom]

37. Maybe if Hillary hadn't wasted all those $ on Fat Cat Mark Penn, she could had spread

her campaign dollars wiser by putting folks who really need jobs to work-instead she gave millions to Mark Penn .

[VolcanoJen]

51. Not to mention....

.... I wonder how much the Clinton camp spent on hiring those out-of-state workers who ran the Nevada Casino-Hotel Caucuses?

[blm]

40. Good to hear about the reality of the ground game, mod. I agree about HOW to spend

the money.

[mod mom]

49. Some here believe Mark Penn & Howard Wolfson are a better use of funds.

:eyes:

[blm]

50. I believe they don't really believe it themselves but are emotionally invested in Clintons and

have become kneejerk in their defense of all things Clinton.

[flpoljunkie]

41. Very good news on the inner city ground game in Ohio! Thanks for your post!

[TexasObserver]

44. That's it, exactly. Models are too often dominated by historical results.

As such, they miss the waves of new voters. A number of them use only landlines, which is so 1996.

If a pollster determines the wrong mix of likely voters they get a bad model and miss the call. Garbage in, garbage out.

[politicasista]

46. Thanks for the report on the ground

:kick: and Recommended your post. :)

[long_green]

47. This has been the pattern throughout the campaign...

the turnouts have been huge for primaries and caucuses.

[lisainmilo]

53. Such good news!!!

I am so glad they are utilizing the monies in this way!

BTW: hope you are right about Ohio..... :)

[Johnny__Motown]

56. What about 5 star hotels? is giving poor people a job better than giving money to the Four Seasons?

Hmmmm.....



And by the way, I tend to agree with you. Obama has been out performing the polls on a regular basis. Your explanation is as good as any and with the disenfranchisement problem in '04 this may just increase his turn out.

[eridani]

57. Better than spending it on assholes like Mark Penn also n/t

[bigbrother05]

62. ...

:bounce:

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

63. Obama is a class act all the way

and I love that he is giving people work.