Thinking the unthinkable - An Obama loss to McCain

[quinnox]

Ok, maybe I'm a pessimist, maybe I haven't drunk enough kool-aid yet, maybe I'm a realist, but I think McCain has a very good chance to beat Obama. Now I won't go into all the reasons again but I want to ask for the purpose of this post, lets say he does.

What happens in 2012?

Will Kerry run again? Or an Al Gore finally says why not? Hillary again? Obama again? It is fascinating all the heavyweights who could run again.

And not to mention all the fresh unknowns that we don't yet know about.

Not to mention a 76 year old McCain may be an easier target.

[Arugula Latte]

1. He has a hell of a better shot at whooping McCain than Hillary does.

And that's one huge reason he's doing so well.

[ihelpu2see]

71. ditto!! nt

[SteppingRazor]

2. I never thought for a moment that Al Gore would enter the race in 2004, but...

I think this situation could actually result in a Gore run, which would likely trump attempts by all the other also-rans (Kerry, Clinton and Obama).

Of course, I think this is purely hypothetical, because I think Obama will trounce McCain. :)

But as long as we're going to engage in the hypothetical, I think a Dem. loss in 2008 definitely sets up a Gore run in 2012.

[quinnox]

10. that would be exciting

That is one scenario I wouldn't mind seeing. Al Gore is awesome.

[electropop]

33. A Dem loss in 2008 sets up a permanent GOP dictatorship.

We cannot let that happen.

[jpak]

3. Not this shite again

:puke:

[Angela Shelley]

4. The unthinkable? 200 million refugees from the US to Mexico.

[Unsane]

huh?

[tigereye]

5. let's get through the primaries first

we can beat McCain with either candidate if we work at it.

McCain is older, he's over the top in terms of support for the war, and a lot of Reps don't like him.


(nothing wrong with an older president, but Obama and Hillary are much younger than he is, and the country wants NEW ideas and new folks in the WH)

[Lone_Star_Dem]

16. "We can beat McCain with either candidate if we work at it"

I agree.

In the GE either one could be a wining candidate if we're willing to do what it takes to make it happen.

[zanne]

6. You're just a little ray of sunshine today.

Just kidding. I don't think the Republicans have a chance this time around or in 2012--maybe in 2016.
Sometimes, when I get a scary thought in my head, I'll say it out loud so other people can prove me wrong.

[NewJeffCT]

7. I think McCain is the favorite vs Obama or Clinton

The media love for McCain is huge and they'll bend over backwards to get him elected.

[quinnox]

I agree

I also think Hillary would have a tough time vs McCain.

[damonm]

53. Facts disagree with you.

[Thepricebreaker]

63. The polls disagree with you. He is beating both in the general via Rasmussen.

[damonm]

69. Au Contraire - they AGREE with me.

See

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[totodeinhere]

60. All either Clinton or Obama have to do is hang the Iraq war around his neck.

And he is toast. That's why this primary campaign is so exciting. It will choose the next prez. The general election will be a cakewalk for the Dems.

[NewJeffCT]

66. I heard that all through the first half of 2004, too

everybody thought Bush was sure to lose.

[totodeinhere]

68. I will revise that to say...

if they don't steal the election again.

[Fredda Weinberg]

8. I think you're a realist. We have fooled ourselves before n/t

[griffi94]

26. good lord

isn't that the truth. i remember when dukakis ran against ghwb. i didn't see anyway that bush would win, even tho dukakis was not my ideal candidate.
then in 2000 i couldn't believe anybody would vote for gwb he was way to easy to see thru, just cheap idiotic slogans and mangled sentences. then in 2004 after bush had proven he was an idiot, it wasn't even an opinion anymore, but an accepted fact. a majority of the people in the country felt like the country was going in the wrong direction, so we elected him again. my head hurts.

[Fredda Weinberg]

29. The super delegate system has broken down. Maybe Dean can

come up with a better one after November. Hang on ... it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[cali]

9. this is so stupid

We have a battle to fight in the here and now. this year. assuming that Obama is going to lose and moving on to 2012, is just wacky.

[The Anti-Bush]

15. They really are nuts, aren't they?

I just don't get it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. His lover is at 19%.

[kentuck]

12. Or a Hillary loss to McCain?

Both are unthinkable.


And that is what we are debating, isn't it?

[mythyc]

13. Obama will not lose to McCain

please people... he's won more primary votes than all the Republicans put together. remember Nixon sweating on national tv while JFK ran circles around him?

[BOSSHOG]

20. Also recall

that those who listened to the Kennedy-Nixon debate on the radio thought Nixon did the much better job. Probably proving your point that McCain won't "look" very good on TV versus either Obama or Clinton.

[rodeodance]

24. never say never is wise saying to live by

[Peregrine Took]

46. A very good motto.

[Guava Jelly]

14. McCain will be tough to beat

I thin Obama will do well against him.

[Cant trust em]

17. Obama should run again

He'd have another 4 years experience and it would be harder to saddle him with that claim.

You pose a legitimate question, but if it were me I would have left out the "maybe I haven't drunk enough kool-aid" line. It's been my experience on DU that if you want a question answered it needs to be as neutral as possible. I hope you get the answers you're seeking and don't get flamed.

[Political Heretic]

18. McCain doesn't have a very good chance to beat the poop I just left in the toilet this year.

[Harry Monroe]

27. Mr. Hankey for President!!!

Howdy Ho!!!

[Political Heretic]

50. I just noticed my dangling modifier and laughed out loud.

Not...the poop I left in my toilet this year.

This year, McCain doesn't have a chance of beating.... etc. etc.

Dangling modifiers are fun.

[zulchzulu]

19. Grandpa McCain't is going to get spanked hard by Obama

The weight of the Iraq War around his neck will having him gasping for air by Election Day. Republicans behind the scenes are doing all they can to trip him up so he's not the nominee.

[Harry Monroe]

54. Spanked hard by Obama??

Thanks for that image. Now the image of McCain laying over Obama's lap and being spanked will stay with me for the rest of the day!! Yuk!!

BTW, if Obama spanked Bush, would that be considered Spanking the Monkey??

[Alhena]

McCain does well in polls, but people don't seem enthused to actually vote for him

he's been having a hard time finishing off Mike Huckabee for crying out loud.

There will be a huge enthusiasm gap between Obama and McCain supporters- I expect an Obama GOTV effort in states like Ohio the likes of which have never been seen before in politics. Just target young voters and minorities and the election should be ours.

[book_worm]

21. what makes so so sure that Hillary would beat him? so far the evidence is to the contrary.

[quinnox]

22. I don't

I think McCain is the favorite against either of them.

[tridim]

31. Why do you think that? All the polls show Obama beating McCain.

And at least half of the "Conservative" voters hate McCain.

I see fuzzy math.

[rodeodance]

25. cause she is running on substance.

[Hieronymus]

23. No poll has ever indicated that Hillary has a better chance of .......

beating McCain. Several polls show that Obama has a better chance of beating McCain.

[invictus]

28. There is no way that Obama can lose to McNasty

Even McNasty's own party hates him. He will go down in flames. An old soldier ... fading away ....

[YOY]

30. Here's how that would happen IF it did

A: Bush finds Osama and "wins" Iraq in the next 9 months...snowballs chance on Mercury.

B: Nader actually gets enough support...it's been a sinking ship since 2004 and we all know who we are blaming...not exactly Han Solo in an Asteroid field odds here...

C: All of Hillary's folks magically turn out to be willing to vote for McCain instead of Obama...not very f***ing likely...not that I think there aren't a few Repub trolls stoking the fires here on both sides of the Dem nomication...

D: Obama REALLY DOES TURN OUT to be a closet Muslim sent by the mujadeen to convert us all to the evil Islam and make our women wear burkas...Oh snap I can't believe I actually wrote that without shitting myself...

E: Obama runs a completely uncharismatic campaign based on how "things are just fiiiiiiine." Jimmy "J J" Walker and Stephen Baldwin teaming up for a lovable buddy movie that wins an Oscar is more likely.

oh yeah...

F: Jesus f***ing Christ comes back with an M-16 strapped to his newly chiseled frame and tells the religious right that they need elect McCain and that only then will he give them permission to kill all the Muslims, Jews, Atheists, and Catholics so that they may take their land...in which case there won't be an election due to a monumental civil war...the odds of which are rather like Christopher Reeves coming back from the grave to rough up Gene Hackman undead Superman style...

[shadowknows69]

32. If we don't win this one

I'm not so sure our country will even exist in 2012

[JimGinPA]

34. You're Right...

You are a pessimist. I guess I would be too if Hillary was my choice for the nomination.

[kentuck]

35. Obama's goal should be to make McCain disavow George W Bush...

or to make him embrace him. We must understand that George W Bush is our secret weapon in this campaign. The American people truly dislike the man by a large majority.

[whosinpower]

37. I think Obama has already begun

Every time he attacks McCain - it is McCain and Bush invaded Iraq. McCain and Bush created this mess. He is marrying them together with every single attack.

[kentuck]

44. Very smart...

in my opinion.

[libodem]

36. It is unthinkable

and gut wrenching to even consider what a tragedy that would be. I don't see, John Sidney McCain, as viable and sturdy enough to ward off the puppet-strings of the Kabuki dance masters of the RNC and Neocons. He would be putty in Corporate/Socialist, Fascist hands. We need to be vigilant against taking the election results for granted. We are all hypnotized with the mind-set that things have been so, in-your-face-rotten, that it just could not possibly happen again. It well could!

[CyberPieHole]

38. It's not "unthinkable"...the RW will paint Obama as an "angry black man"...

Michelle Obama has exposed her anger already with her comments about not being "proud" of America (regardless of what Obama supporters say, THOSE words will be used against HIM and her). I've been reading about this very subject. The RW will not try to tackle Obama with "experience", Senator Clinton tried that and failed. Americans do not, AT THIS MOMENT, care about experience. What they will be made to see, if the RW have their way, is that "CHANGE" is the operative word. Change implies displeasure with the way things are, and Americans are going to be shown that the "change" Obama is taking about is born of a bias against whites. The RW have nothing to lose by this ploy. They don't have a large black base. They won't be losing those voters because they didn't have them to begin with. By the time they are through, the RW may very well succeed in raising the specter of suspicion on Obama. I'm not condoning any of these tactics, but you can read them in blogs and in RW opinion pieces. It is still possible that Obama and his supporters may be able to pull it off, but after having tarred and smeared the Clintons as racists (playing the very race card that the RW will play against them) it's going to be very difficult to get most of those supporters to show up on November and pull the lever for Obama. The smear camapaign cut to the core of what we have loved about the Clintons: they have always seemed inclusive and could (HAVE BEEN) thought of as anything EXCEPT racists. Kudos to destroying the image of a great couple many of us admired. Good luck in removing the smear you piled on them in order to get the brass ring. If Obama loses, you have no one to blame for it but yourselves.

[RiverStone]

39. What about the fact the Dems have out voted the pukes 2 or even 3 to 1 in the primaries?

[sueragingroz]

75. "democrat for a day?"

[DemGa]

40. Obama will be a joke if this happens

People will look back with embarrassment at the adulation, and it will all appear very silly (Of course this perception may occur much sooner, say, this summer). They will distance themselves. But I think that Obama will become a running joke anyway it goes.

Yes, Hillary should certainly run again.

[yurbud]

41. If McCain wins, he would pick a life insurance VP like Huckabee, someone monied elite dislike

Just as Papa Bush picked the vacuous Quayle, who no one thought was capable of taking over.

[ProSense]

42. McCain is a weak candidate

Straight Talk Distress

[Usrename]

43. There won't be a 2012. The world will crush us.

There won't be an America in four years if McCain starts nuking the entire middle east. The world will crush us in self-defense.

[Peregrine Took]

45. Its a possibility we have to face. The RW machine is gearing up already - in

February yet - imagine the crap they will have accumulated by the Fall.

Limbaugh and folk are at high decibel levels and between the name, the little flag stuff, the Rezkco flap, the photo and God knows what else they will dig up - it all could add up with (shudder) McCain in the WH.

Folks love to think the worst about people, especially when they are being celebrated by others.

If BO is a winner on 3/4 we will really have to get behind him as Fatso Limbaugh is now repeating things we have thrown at Obama that he (Limbaugh)could have read or heard about on Democratic forums.

This is going to be a TREMENDOUS fight as our (likely) candidate is definitely non-traditional and the RW will go nuts with that.

They had nothing on Al Gore and look how they ran with the "liar" crap, not to mention the Buddhist contribution thing - "Buddhists.....WEIRD" ="Al Gore WIERD!!!!" became their meme.

[damonm]

52. What I think you're missing...

is this - Obama resonates with many voters BECAUSE he's representing a break with the politics we've seen in the recent past. "Going Negative" on Obama strengthens him because he can point to it and say "See? This is why I'm running - to change this divisive tone, which is the politics of the past; the same old politics. I bring CHANGE!"
Atop that, unlike Gore & Kerry, Obama responds to attacks almost instantly - he doesn't let them fester in the minds of the electorate - and he is forthright about doing so, often turning the attacks back on the attacker, as he did.
The RW attack machine is going to have to find a new angle for Obama - that's why they fear him. You should see Hannity's forum - Obama's almost got them peeing their pants over there.

[Benhurst]

47. A Democratic presidential nominee who loses

to the Republicans after eight years under Dubya Bush, who is leaving with a 19% approval rating, should consider himself or herself lucky not to be run out of the country. Run again in 2012? I think NOT!

[Leopolds Ghost]

61. You're assuming the elections will be free and fair.

[Benhurst]

74. I fear we may be headed for our third stolen presidential election.

But any Democratic presidential nominee who actually loses to the Republicans after eight years of Bush, deserves to be run out of the country. Another run in 2012 for such a person? No way!

[Prophet 451]

48. I think you're wrong, but.....

In every poll I've seen, Obama handily beats McCain. Granted, that assumes that the votes are honestly counted.

Leaving that aside: I think you can probably write off Gore. He seems to have settled for being a jet-setting spokesman for climate issues and perhaps we'll all be better for that. Hillary, I would think, wouldn't do another run. Kerry is possible but doubtful. Edwards is very likely, as is Obama (and I've have less reservations about Obama at that point). My wish list would also include Barney Fife, Ted Kennedy (no chance of either) and Barbara Boxer (possible)

That's assuming there would be a 2012 election. With the legal powers already in place, the president could shut down Congress and declare martial law anytime he liked. Hell, I'm still not entirely certain there will be a new president in January.

[onenote]

49. so, having predicted the outcome of the 2008 election, you now want to know about 2012

Deal. You tell me what stocks I should buy between now and November 2008 (or, better yet, just tell me who is going to win the NCAA championship and the NBA and NHL finals and the World Series so I can place some bets in Vegas) and I'll tell you what's going to happen in 2012.

Instead of wasting time with silly posts like this, I suggest you get a Magic 8 Ball.

[slackmaster]

51. I know of one guy who will be available on September 2, 2009 if all goes well

[lisainmilo]

55. I don't believe that will happen....

If we get behind whoever the nominee is with the passion we have on DU, no way for a loss in November. I know I will give 110% of everything I am, everything I have! No Way NO REPUBLICAN!
They are all coming out of the woodwork though...."STAY THE COURSE" seems to be the main theme.... Fear and Smear AGAIN!

[bvar22]

56. NOW you are going to worry about electability?

The time for considering "electability" is LONG over.
Biden, Dodd, and Edwards and were ALL more "electable" than Hillary or Obama.

[NMMatt]

58. Electable politicians will elections

Biden, Dodd and Edwards all proved very un-electable by coming no where close to actually winning.

[bvar22]

64. There is a BIG difference between....

...electability in the Democratic Primary versus electability in the GE.
One of the most important factors in choosing our Democratic champion SHOULD be electability in the General Election. Both Hillary and Obama concede several MILLION votes before the polls even open.

Just check election history from 1964 to today.

[NMMatt]

57. Umm... with all due respect, lets focus on winning in 2008

There will be pleanty of time in the unlikely event that we were to lose this year to figure out how to take out McCain.

[karynnj]

59. As a Hillary supporter it is disengenuous that you say an OBAMA loss,

Why not say a Democratic loss. I think that the Democrats have an excellent chance of winning. No matter how much the media speaks of McCain's geniality, he has a known habit of blowing up - and this is the You tube age. The issues are on our side. I hope that whichever one gets the nomination works with John Kerry before the debates. He knows McCain far better than they do and he is the best debater the Democrats have. We need to work for a victory.

If HRC or Obama lose, I have no idea who would be the candidate. If HRC is the one who ran, Obama, especially if he had won more delegates and then had the powers that be take it away, would be the very likely candidate. In fact, if that happened I could see some of the other candidates encouraging him to run. (This all assumes that nothing he did or about him caused him to implode)

If it were the other way around, I really don't see HRC running again. This has probably been a terrible, grueling experience for her. Al Gore did say that he wasn't ruling running again out forever. No matter how close, I think Obama will have the problem that Kerry raised this time - every nit of the campaign will be exaimed and every mistake no matter how small will be blamed as the stupid thing he did that caused him to lose. Kerry might try again and he might be the strongest Democrat against McCain and he's completely vetted. The reasons he might not is that he will be 69 and Teresa 74. They are both extremely healthy and fit, but campaigns are incredibly grueling. I actually doubt it will be any of them. But someone like Mark Warner or someone whose name none of us will thing of now.

[Dorian Gray]

62. I guess we will see

if and when it comes down to that.

I have the feeling that Obama will beat McCain, but that's based on gut alone, not on anything specific. (Like polls.) My gut also tells me he has a better chance than Hillary, as she's more divisive. Lots of people dislike her, even liberals. But, that's just in my experience, and it may be vastly different in other places.

[loveangelc]

65. McCain vs Obama will not result in McCain as the next POTUS. I will bet anything on that.

[styersc]

70. Obama is almost certain to lose to McCain, but I support the

Obama candidacy anyway. Obama has energized progressives, particularly the young, like no one in 40 years. We have to keep the energy even after McCain is the president. Particularly when McCain is the president. That is how we will make the change that we all crave.

[Shine]

67. Sorry, I can't even go there.

I want to focus on what we WANT to have happen, rather than on what we DON'T WANT.

Otherwise, what's the point in getting all caught up in the fear and speculation? It seems impractical and consequently, the very opposite of being "realistic".

Deal with what is in front of us RIGHT NOW.

Just sayin'.

[Firespirit]

72. If McCain wins, I'll know the Mayans were right about 2012. eom

[anonymous171]

73. Your not a realist...

You are a defeatist.