Of course, this is based on the possibility that Barack Obama is the nominee and that John McCain maintains his pace and becomes the Republican nominee.
Here are the reasons that John Sidney McCain will lose by a lot on Election Day, 2008.
- He will not get the support from the Republican base due to the Christian Right not be able to trust him based him calling them “agents of intolerance” during the 2000 presidential primary. His alignment with Russ Feingold with the campaign financing bill gave the base another reason. Focus on the Family founder James Dobson has stated he will vote for McCain. What is ironic is that John McCain will try in vain to pander to them.
- Because he will pander to the Religious Right, McCain will lose the votes of moderate Republicans tired of the theocratic arm of the Republican Party and the Independent voter, who is equally tired of such pandering. The more McCain swings right, the more the moderate and Independent vote goes to Obama.
- McCain will at some point have a temper tantrum or a health-related issue that tarnished his campaign. He already looks old on the campaign trail and if he faints in some rally this summer in California, he will look even older.
- The Obama campaign will strongly and firmly pin the costly Iraq War with the failing economy and pin McCain with being a careless puppet of the Bush regime. The more Bush shows up on the campaign trail with McCain, the further away his numbers will fall.
- Based on how McCain's surrogates have been acting, jingoism will be a major piece in the McCain armory to flail at Obama with. Racism will possibly be thrown in as well the "Manchurian Candidate" meme. By the fall, this will be seen as so negative that many will be turned off by these typical stale Republican tactics.
- The overwhelming support from the full spectrum of demographic profiles, including the young vote, will give Obama plenty of voter padding that even the Diebold cheaters won't be able to steal.
- Based on a contact I have with someone in the Republican National Committee who attends RNC "bat cave" meetings, the Republicans don't really even want to win in 2008. The economy will be in the skids and the Iraq war can be transferred over to the Democratic administration to be used strategically in 2010 elections. Even RNC "leaders" know that McCain will probably lose by more votes than even Barry Goldwater in 1964.
- The South will not deliver McCain the votes that Republicans need to win, in part due to the very high African-American turnout as well as mistrust from the Religious Right voter, who mainly reside in the South. Having called for bringing down the Confederate flag from the South Carolina statehouse in 2000 won't help McCain either.
- Obama will not stand down if attacked by McCain. Look for a very mobilized media-saavy force that takes anything McCain throws with an overwhelming return attack.
- McCain's stance on immigration reform will turn off many Republicans that don't lean in the Religious Right mentality.
- Whether it's true or not, McCain's possible affair with a lobbyist will continue coming up.
- McCain's embrace of George Bush's unpopular administration's record and record will firmly anchor him to Bush's sinking legacy.